Search Results (29)

The Forbush effects (FEs) in cosmic rays associated with interplanetary disturbances caused by the disappearance of solar filaments (DSFs) outside active regions (ARs) are considered. In total, 481 FEs were detected for 1995–2023 using the database of Forbush Effects and Interplanetary Disturbances (FEID). The behavior of the cosmic ray density was calculated using the Global Survey Method (GSM). The distributions of the FE numbers depending on their duration and magnitude, as well as on the characteristics of the interplanetary and near-Earth medium, were obtained. It is found that the average duration of such FEs (33.4 ± 0.5 h) is almost the same as for events associated with CMEs from ARs, but the average magnitude is much smaller (0.83 ± 0.03%). It is also shown that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) caused by DSFs are often low-speed interplanetary disturbances (with an average maximum SW speed of 423.2 ± 3.5 km/s), the velocities of which are close to the speed of the background solar wind (SW). During FEs associated with CMEs after DSFs outside ARs, on average, unsettled geomagnetic activity is observed. Magnetic storms were recorded only in 19% of events. Lower values of FE magnitude and geomagnetic activity are associated with weakened magnetic fields and low speeds of such interplanetary disturbances. Full article

On 1 December 2023, a strong geomagnetic storm was triggered by an interplanetary shock caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME). This study used data from 193 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observation stations in China to study the three-dimensional morphological total electron content (TEC) disturbances during this storm. By analyzing GNSS TEC data from 15 GNSS stations along the magnetic field lines, it was found that TEC disturbances spread from low to high latitudes, confirmed by ionosonde NmF2 data. The TEC disturbance first appeared at the LJHP station, (21.68° N) at 11:30 UT and propagated to the BJFS station (39.60° N) at 13:30 UT with a propagation speed of about 217 m/s and maximum amplitude of ±0.2 m. The TEC disturbance lasted the longest, approximately 4 h, between latitudes 25° N and 32° N. Additionally, this study investigated the ionosphere’s three-dimensional electron density distribution in the Guangxi region using an ionospheric tomography algorithm. Results showed that the TEC disturbances were mainly concentrated between 450 and 580 km in altitude. At 12:00 UT, the maximum change in electron density occurred at a 580 km height at 26° N, 112° E, increasing by 20.54 total electron content unit (TECU). During the main phase of the geomagnetic storm, the electron density expanded from higher to lower layers, while during the recovery phase, it recovered from the lower layers to the higher layers. Full article

The study aims to understand the role of solar wind current sheets (CSs) in shaping the spectrum of turbulent fluctuations and driving dissipation processes in space plasma. Local non-adiabatic heating and acceleration of charged particles in the solar wind is one of the most intriguing challenges in space physics. Leading theories attribute these effects to turbulent heating, often associated with magnetic reconnection at small-scale coherent structures in the solar wind, such as CSs and flux ropes. We identify CSs observed at 1 AU in different types of the solar wind around and within an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) and analyze the corresponding characteristics of the turbulent cascade. It is found that the spectra of fluctuations of the interplanetary magnetic field may be reshaped due to the CS impact potentially leading to local disruptions in energy transfer along the cascade of turbulent fluctuations. Case studies of the spectra behavior at the peak of the CS number show their steepening at MHD scales, flattening at kinetic scales, and merging of the spectra into a single form, with the break almost disappearing. In the broader vicinity of the CS number peak, the behavior of spectral parameters changes sharply, but not always following the same pattern. The statistical analysis shows a clear correlation between the break frequency and the CS number. These results are consistent with the picture of turbulent reconnection at CSs. The CS occurrence is found to be statistically linked with the increased temperature. In the ICME sheath, there are two CS populations observed in the hottest and coldest plasma. Full article

A comparison of three types of ionosonde data from Europe during an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME)- and a corotating interaction region (CIR)-driven geomagnetic storm event is detailed in this study. The selected events are 16–20 March 2015 for the ICME-driven storm and 30 May to 4 June 2013 for the CIR-driven one. Ionospheric data from three European ionosonde stations, namely Pruhonice (PQ), Sopron (SO) and Rome (RO), are investigated. The ionospheric F2-layer responses to these geomagnetic events are analyzed with the ionospheric foF2 and h’F2 parameters, the calculated deltafoF2 and deltahF2 values, the ratio of total electron content (rTEC) and Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) thermospheric [O]/[N₂] measurement data. The storm-time and the quiet-day mean values are also compared, and it can be concluded that the quiet-day curves are similar at all the stations while the storm-time ones show the latitudinal dependence during the development of the storm. As a result of the electron density comparison, during the two events, it can be concluded that the sudden storm commencement (SSC) that characterized the ICME induced a traveling atmospheric disturbance (TAD) seen in the European stations in the main phase, while this is not seen in the CIR-driven ionospheric storm, which shows a stronger and more prolonged negative effect in all the stations, probably due to the season and the depleted O/N₂ ratio. Full article

The modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) arrival to Earth was carried out using a one-dimensional drag-based model (DBM) over the period from 2010 to 2018. The CME propagation model includes a simulation of the interaction of the CME with background solar wind via the quasi-stationary solar wind (QSW) model. An analysis of the results of forecasting CME speed and time of arrival to Earth was performed. Input data were obtained from the CACTus database. To ensure real-time operation, a new algorithm was established to select events that can reach Earth more likely. Coronal dimming data were used to obtain coordinates of the CME source location. Forecasting results have been compared with interplanetary CME (ICME) catalogs. The system has predicted 189 of 280 events (68%), with a tolerance of 48 h for the period of maximum solar activity (from 2010 to 2015). The average absolute error of predicted CME arrival speed is about 90 km/s. Our system has predicted 80% of ICMEs associated with extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst_min ≤ −100 nT) within a tolerance of 24 h. Full article

The study and better understanding of energetic transient phenomena caused by disturbances occurring on our Sun are of great importance, primarily due to the potential negative effects those events can have on Earth’s environment. Here, we present the continuation of our previous work on understanding the connection between disturbances in the flux of energetic particles induced in the near-Earth environment by the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and related Forbush decrease events. The relationship between the shape of fluence spectra of energetic protons measured by the instruments on the SOHO/ERNE probe at Lagrange point L1, Forbush decrease parameters measured by the worldwide network of neutron monitors, and coronal mass ejection parameters measured in situ is investigated. Various parameters used to characterize transient phenomena and their impact on the heliosphere, provided by the WIND spacecraft, were utilized to improve the accuracy of the calculation of the associated energetic proton fluence. The single and double power laws with exponential rollover were used to model the fluence spectra, and their effectiveness was compared. Correlation analysis between exponents used to characterize the shape of fluence spectra and Forbush decrease parameters is presented, and the results obtained by the two models are discussed. Full article

In a recent paper, we extended a previous study on the solar solar influence to the generation of the March 2012 heatwave in the northeastern USA. In the present study we check the possible relationship of solar activity with the early March 2012 bad weather in northeast Thrace, Greece. To this end, we examined data from various remote sensing instrumentation monitoring the Sun (SDO satellite), Interplanetary space (ACE satellite), the Earth’s magnetosphere (Earth-based measurements, NOAA-19 satellite), the top of the clouds (Terra and Aqua satellites), and the near ground atmosphere. Our comparative data analysis suggests that: (i) the winter-like weather (rainfall, fast winds, decreased temperature) in Thrace started on 6 March 2012, the same day as the heatwave started in USA, (ii) during the March 2012 winter-like event in Thrace (6–15 March), the ACE satellite recorded enhanced fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs), while SOHO and PAMELA recorded solar protons at very high energies (>500 MeV), (iii) Between 3–31 March, the temperature in Alexandoupoli and the ACE/EPAM solar high energy (1.88–4.70 MeV) proton flux were strongly anticorelated (r = −0.75, p = 0.5). (iv) Thrace experienced particularly intense cyclonic circulation, during periods of magnetic storms on 8–10 and 12–13 March, which occurred after the arrival at ACE of two interplanetary shock waves, on March 8 and March 11, respectively, (v) at the beginning of the two above mentioned periods large atmospheric electric fields were recorded, with values ranging between ~−2000 V/m and ~1800 V/m on 8 March, (vi) the winter-like weather on 8–10 March 2012 occurred after the detection of the main SEP event related with a coronal mass ejection released in interplanetary space as a result of intense solar flare activity observed by SDO on 7 March 2012, (vi) the 8–10 March weather was related with a deep drop of ~63 °C in the cloud top temperature measured by MODIS/Terra, which favors strong precipitation. Finally, we analyzed data from the electric power network in Thrace (~41°N) and we found, for the first time sudden voltage changes of ~3.5 kV in the electric grid in Greece, during the decay phase of the March 2012 storm series. We discuss the winter-like March 2012 event in Thrace regarding the influence of solar cosmic rays on the low troposphere mediated by positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Finally, we infer that the novel finding of the geomagnetic effects on the electric power grid in Thrace may open a new window into space weather applications research. Full article

In this study, we performed periodicity analyses of selected daily solar (flare index, coronal index, number of coronal mass ejections), geomagnetic (planetary equivalent range index, disturbance storm time index, interplanetary magnetic field) and cosmic ray indices for the last Solar Cycle 24 (from December 2008 to December 2019). To study the periodic variation of the above-listed datasets, the following analysis methods were applied; multi-taper method, Morlet wavelet, cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis. The outcome of our analyses revealed the following. (i) The 25–33 days solar rotation periodicities exist in all datasets without any exception in the MTM power spectra. (ii) Except for the solar rotation periodicity, all periods show data preference, and they appear around the investigated cycle’s maximum phase. (iii) When comparing the phase relations between periodicities in the used datasets, they exhibit a gradual transition from small to large periods. For short-term periodicities, there are no phase relations but a mixed phase, whereas for high periodicities, there are complete phase/antiphase transitions. (iv) All identified flare index periodicities are common to all other datasets examined in this investigation. Full article

Geomagnetic storms are one of the leading causes of ionospheric irregularities, depending on their intensity. The 6–10 September 2017 geomagnetic storm, the most severe geomagnetic event of the year, resulted from an X9 solar flare and a subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME), with the first sudden storm commencements (SSC) occurring at 23:43 UT on day 06, coinciding with a Sym-H value of approximately 50 nT, triggered by a sudden increase in the solar wind. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and disturbance storm time (Dst) increased when the first SSC occurred at 23:43 UT on 6 September. The second SSC occurred with a more vigorous intensity at 23:00 UT on 7 September, with the Kp index reaching 8 and the auroral electrojet (AE) 2500 nT. In this study, we investigated this phenomenon using data from Swarm, FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC, and ground-based GNSS networks in East Africa to measure ionospheric irregularities near the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). In this procedure, the total electron content (TEC), amplitude scintillation (S4), and rate of TEC Index (ROTI) were implemented to recognize ionospheric irregularities appearing during the geomagnetic storm. In addition, the Langmuir plasma probes of the Swarm satellites were employed to identify the rate of electron density index (RODI). The results obtained from the different techniques indicate the effects of geomagnetic storms in terms of increased ionospheric irregularities indicated by geophysical ionospheric parameters. This study demonstrates the potential of using space-based measurements to detect the effects of a geomagnetic storm on ionospheric irregularities for regions where ground-based ionospheric observations are rarely available, such as above the oceans. Full article

We present a comprehensive catalog of geomagnetic storms (GSs) with a Dst index $\le -50$ nT detected during solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24 (1996–2019). About 550 events were identified in the Kyoto database and used as a starting point for this study. The solar origin of the GSs, in terms of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar flares (SFs), and in situ-observed energetic particles, was identified where possible using temporal constraints and wide Earth-directed ejecta. In addition, any accompanied interplanetary (IP) sources, such as ICMEs and IP shock waves detected at 1 AU, are also considered. The resulting occurrence rates and correlation plots are presented and discussed in the space weather framework. Full article

We investigate the differences between the effects of geomagnetic storms due to Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICME) and due to Stream Interaction Regions or Corotating Interaction Regions (SIR/CIR) on the ionospheric F2-layer during the maximum of solar cycle 24. We have created a unique list of the ICME- and SIR/CIR-driven geomagnetic storm events for the time interval between November 2012 and October 2014. Finally, 42 clear ICME and 34 clear SIR/CIR events were selected for this analysis. The individual geomagnetic storm periods were grouped by seasons, time of day, and local time of Dst_min and were analyzed using three different methods: linear correlation analysis using 4-h averages of foF2 parameters and the geomagnetic indices (1st), daily variation of deltafoF2 (2nd), and 3D plotting: geomagnetic indices vs. time vs. deltafoF2 (3rd). The main phase day of the ICME- and SIR/CIR-induced geomagnetic storms was our main focus. We used manually evaluated ionospheric foF2 parameters measured at the Sopron ionosonde station and the geomagnetic indices (Kp, Dst, and AE) for this analysis. We have found that in most cases, the variation of the Dst index is the best indicator of the impact caused in the F2 layer. We conclude as well that the representation of the data by the third method gives a better description of the ICME and SIR/CIR-triggered storm behavior. In addition, our investigation shows that the SIR/CIR-related perturbations can be predicted with greater accuracy with the second method. Full article

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) are large-scale eruptions from the Sun and prominent drivers of space weather disturbances, especially intense/extreme geomagnetic storms. Recent studies by our group showed that ICME sheaths and/or magnetic clouds (MC) could be transformed into a planar magnetic structure (PMS) and speculate that these structures might be more geo-effective. Thus, we statistically investigated the geo-effectiveness of planar and non-planar ICME sheaths and MC regions. We analyzed 420 ICME events observed from 1998 to 2017, and we found that the number of intense ($-100$ to $-200$ nT) and extreme (<$-200$ nT) geomagnetic storms are large during planar ICMEs (almost double) compared to non-planar ICMEs. In fact, almost all the extreme storm events occur during PMS molded ICME crossover. The observations suggest that planar structures are more geo-effective than non-planar structures. Thus, the current study helps us to understand the energy transfer mechanism from the ICME/solar wind into the magnetosphere, and space-weather events. Full article

In this study, we give correlations between the geomagnetic storm (GS) intensity and parameters of solar and interplanetary (IP) phenomena. We also perform 3D geometry reconstructions of geo-effective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the recently developed PyThea framework and compare on-sky and de-projected parameter values, focusing on the reliability of the de-projection capabilities. We utilize spheroid, ellipsoid and graduated cylindrical shell models. In addition, we collected a number of parameters of the GS-associated phenomena. A large variation in 3D de-projections is obtained for the CME speeds depending on the selected model for CME reconstruction and observer subjectivity. A combination of fast speed and frontal orientation of the magnetic structure upon its arrival at the terrestrial magnetosphere proves to be the best indicator for the GS strength. More reliable estimations of geometry and directivity, in addition to de-projected speeds, are important for GS forecasting in operational space weather schemes. Full article

The Earth’s magnetosphere is permanently influenced by the solar wind. When supersonic and superalfvenic plasma flow interacts with the magnetosphere, the magnetosheath region is formed, which is filled with shocked turbulent plasma. Varying SW parameters influence the mechanisms of formation of this boundary layer, including the dynamics of turbulence behind the bow shock. The effect of the solar wind on the development of turbulence in the magnetosheath was demonstrated recently based on broad statistics of spacecraft measurements. The present study considers the multipoint observations of turbulent fluctuations in the solar wind, in the dayside magnetosheath and at the flanks, to analyze the evolution of the turbulent cascade while the solar wind plasma enters the magnetosheath. Observations of the magnetosheath behind the quasi-perpendicular bow shock are analyzed to exclude the influence of the bow shock topology from consideration. Three basic types of solar wind flows are considered: slow undisturbed solar wind, compressed regions, and interplanetary manifestations of coronal mass ejections. The results show surviving Kolmogorov scaling behind the bow shock for steady solar wind flow and amplification of the compressive fluctuations at the kinetic scales at the magnetosheath flanks for the solar wind associated with compressed plasma streams. During interplanetary manifestations of the coronal mass ejection, the spectra in the dayside magnetosheath substantially deviate from those observed in the solar wind (including the absence of Kolmogorov scaling and steepening at the kinetic scales) and restore at the flanks. Full article