Systems Approaches to Risk Management

A special issue of Systems (ISSN 2079-8954). This special issue belongs to the section "Systems Practice in Social Science".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 May 2026 | Viewed by 1068

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
Interests: systems modelling; risk management; complex systems

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

When people manage risk, they are doing so with respect to a particular part of the world. Whether that part be a person, a chemical process plant, a bank, a hospital, a school, or a construction project, these can all be conceived as an example of a system, having many interacting parts that give rise to the features of the system, and the risks that are sought to be managed.

This perspective has been held by risk analysts for many years, and as a result, many approaches for managing risk have been developed that are based in systems theory or systems methods. For example, systems-based risk identification methods include Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) or the Blended Hazard Identification Method (BLHAZID). Alternatively, many modeling approaches, such as system dynamics, agent-based models, sophisticated simulations or Bayesian networks, have also been applied to support risk management efforts.

But ‘the systems approach’ goes much deeper, and affects how people managing risk perceive the world, and therefore, how risk management is conceived of fundamentally.

This Special Issue aims to provide a space to explore what is the state of the field of applying systems approaches to understand, describe, perform, and/or critique risk management theory and practice.

We invite 10-12 articles drawn from original research and/or review articles. The original research articles can be about theory development, presentation of modeling, simulation or data analysis results, or very applied experimental results demonstrating systems-theory informed risk management activities in practice.

We look forward to receiving your submissions for consideration.

Dr. Benjamin J. Seligmann
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • systems theory
  • risk management
  • systems model
  • risk model
  • causal model
  • risk assessment
  • risk treatment
  • control effectiveness
  • control management
  • critical control
  • risk management system

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 1016 KB  
Article
Network Position in Global Trade Systems and Cyberattack Risk: Evidence from Country-Level Trade Networks, 2010–2020
by Zlatan Morić, Siniša Urošev and Robert Kopal
Systems 2026, 14(4), 367; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14040367 - 30 Mar 2026
Viewed by 215
Abstract
Cyberattacks increasingly generate systemic economic and geopolitical effects in an era of dense global interdependence. While prior research emphasises geopolitical rivalry, institutional capacity, and technological sophistication as determinants of national cyber risk, less attention has been given to structural vulnerabilities arising from countries’ [...] Read more.
Cyberattacks increasingly generate systemic economic and geopolitical effects in an era of dense global interdependence. While prior research emphasises geopolitical rivalry, institutional capacity, and technological sophistication as determinants of national cyber risk, less attention has been given to structural vulnerabilities arising from countries’ positions within global economic networks. This study advances a relational theory of national cyber risk, arguing that structurally central countries provide greater systemic leverage to attackers because disruptions to highly accessible nodes can propagate widely across interconnected trade systems. Using annual bilateral trade data from 2010 to 2020, we construct directed, weighted global trade networks and derive centrality measures capturing accessibility, brokerage, and embeddedness. These indicators are linked to country-level cyber incident data to evaluate both the probability and intensity of cyberattacks. Logistic and negative binomial models with lagged network metrics show that countries occupying more accessible positions face significantly higher cyberattack risk. The findings demonstrate that national cyber vulnerability emerges from relational exposure within interconnected economic systems, underscoring the importance of systems-based cybersecurity risk assessment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Systems Approaches to Risk Management)
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20 pages, 8255 KB  
Article
Systematic Risk Assessment of Seawater Intrusion in Ports: Assessment Framework and Empirical Analysis
by Yuan Gao, Zhen Qiao and Longjun He
Systems 2026, 14(2), 160; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020160 - 2 Feb 2026
Viewed by 398
Abstract
Multiple factors, including global climate change and rising sea levels, increase the frequency and intensity of seawater intrusion. However, most previous studies have not regarded seawater intrusion as a typical accident for systematic safety risk assessment. In view of this, this paper comprehensively [...] Read more.
Multiple factors, including global climate change and rising sea levels, increase the frequency and intensity of seawater intrusion. However, most previous studies have not regarded seawater intrusion as a typical accident for systematic safety risk assessment. In view of this, this paper comprehensively employed the fault tree model, the “Man-Machine-Material-Method-Environment” system theory, the Bayesian network model, and the Attack-Defense game theory to conduct qualitative and quantitative analyses concerning seawater intrusion. The main research results were as follows: the fault tree model was applied to sort the hazard-inducing factors from the perspectives of nature and humans, which were further categorized based on the theoretical framework of the “Man-Machine-Material-Method-Environment” (4M1E) theory. Based on the Bayesian network model, and incorporating assessments of the existing defense conditions of the target port, the occurrence probability of seawater intrusion at the port was calculated as 3.05%. Simultaneously, the influence weights of the 4M1E factors on seawater intrusion were quantified; environmental and mechanical factors ranked as the top two contributors, accounting for 57.79% and 29.70% of the total impact, respectively. Utilizing the Attack-Defense game theory, two key risk evolution paths of seawater intrusion were identified, with occurrence probabilities of 7.627‰ and 4.164‰. Typical disaster cases clarified the underlying mechanisms by which these key risk paths triggered seawater intrusion, and targeted prevention and control measures were proposed accordingly. The research findings can not only deepen the systematic understanding of seawater intrusion as a typical marine disaster but also provide technical references for governments and enterprises to optimize their risk management systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Systems Approaches to Risk Management)
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