Commodities, Volume 5, Issue 1 (March 2026) – 7 articles

This review examines the renewed strategic relevance of uranium within the evolving global energy system, emphasizing uranium market dynamics, emerging nuclear technologies, and geopolitical realignments. Moving beyond traditional perspectives that treat uranium primarily as a cyclical commodity or focus narrowly on reactor design, the article frames uranium as a critical strategic resource at the intersection of energy security, decarbonization, and industrial transformation. The analysis integrates market fundamentals with technological developments, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced high-temperature reactor systems, and regional policy strategies to provide a holistic perspective largely absent from the existing literature. Quantitative evidence indicates a structurally tightening uranium market, with global reactor demand of approximately 67,500 tU per year and mine production historically meeting only 74–90% of annual requirements. Uranium prices have rebounded from below $20 lb⁻¹ U₃O₈ in 2016 to above $80 lb⁻¹ by late 2023, reflecting supply concentration, long development timelines for new mines, and renewed political commitments to nuclear energy. Demand projections suggest an increase of around 28% by 2030 and the potential for a doubling by mid-century under high-nuclear deployment scenarios. From a technological perspective, while SMRs and advanced reactors may increase uranium consumption per unit of electricity, they substantially expand nuclear energy deployment into new domains, including remote power systems, industrial heat applications, and large-scale low-carbon hydrogen production. Overall, the study highlights a qualitative shift in uranium’s role, positioning it as both a foundational component and a key enabler of integrated low-carbon energy systems spanning electricity, heat, and hydrogen production. Full article

Agricultural seeds are sold as commodities yet seed quality can be non-uniform. Despite the extensive literature showing that plasma treatments of seeds provides advantages for many crops, lettuce studies, particularly in indoor farming systems, are limited. This study provides a systematic investigation of the impacts of non-thermal plasma treatments with various feed gases (N₂, O₂, dry air, and wet air) on the germination and growth characteristics of four lettuce cultivars (Red Oakleaf (RO), Black Simpson (BS), Valley Heart Romaine (VHR), and Paris Romaine (PR)) under controlled cultivation conditions in an agrivoltaic agrotunnel. Although the germination time was not conclusively affected by the treatments, the results show a complex interaction between germination rate and yield across the different cultivars and plasma treatments. Except for PR seeds (77.8% vs. 65.8% control), wet air plasma treatments increased germination rates by 18.7–100% over controls for all other cultivars. In yield analysis, wet air treatment had the strongest effect, especially for VHR (51.7 vs. 42.5 g/pot). Treatments did not notably affect RO. For BS, N₂ treatment gave the highest increase (54.2 vs. 48.1 g/pot), while PR responded best to O₂ treatment (58.4 vs. 51.8 g/pot). The energy consumption of plasma treatments was negligible for all treatments, while labor costs for small batches of seeds accounted for the largest share of secondary operating costs (839, 622, and 659 h/year, respectively for BS, VHR, and PR). Despite additional expenses, including labor, O&M, and degradation costs, the reduced seed requirements from higher germination rates and higher yield increased net profit by 12.0% compared to untreated cultivation in the most impacted (Valley Heart Romaine) lettuce. There is an opportunity for further cost optimization of the non-thermal plasma treatment for each type of lettuce seed. Full article

Mexican octopus fisheries play an important role in both domestic and international seafood markets, yet little is known about the determinants of retail price in the national frozen octopus sector. This study examines how trade flows and domestic demand interact to shape price dynamics, providing insights into sustainability challenges. Multiple linear regression was employed to test the influence of economic, production, and trade variables on retail prices, based on annual data from 2010 to 2024. The best-performing model identified average daily salary, apparent consumption and import value as significant determinants, explaining more than 90% of the observed variation. Results show that rising salaries and greater domestic consumption are exerting upward pressure on prices, while imports, although limited, contribute to price moderation. Export values have declined, signaling a weakening role of the international markets. These findings suggest that domestic demand is becoming increasingly important for sustaining value in the sector, but this shift could intensify fishing pressure on wild stocks. Strengthening compliance with management measures and aligning policies with domestic market realities are crucial to ensuring long-term sustainability of the Mexican octopus supply. Full article

This paper investigates whether participation in Zambia’s social cash transfer programme (SCTP) improves household dietary diversity among ultra-poor rural households. While cash transfers are widely implemented across sub-Saharan Africa as social protection measures, empirical evidence regarding their impact on nutritional status remains mixed. This study focuses on dietary diversity, a proxy for nutrition quality, and uses data from the 2015 Rural Agricultural Livelihood Survey (RALS). The analysis employs propensity score matching to control for demographic differences between recipient and non-recipient households, followed by a regression analysis to examine the association between SCTP participation and dietary diversity scores. The findings reveal no statistically significant association between receiving social cash transfers and higher household dietary diversity. In contrast, positive predictors of dietary diversity included household remittances, own production of animal-source foods, and maize sales. Notably, households that relied on foraging exhibited significantly lower dietary diversity, suggesting foraging may be a coping strategy among food-insecure households. These results imply that while the SCTP may enhance household income stability, it does not necessarily translate into improved diet quality. This study contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the effectiveness of cash-based interventions in improving nutrition outcomes. It highlights the need to complement cash transfers with interventions that support food production and access, particularly in rural settings where market and infrastructure limitations persist. Full article

Poultry price instability remains a critical challenge for food security in Nigeria. This study examines the relationship between poultry price volatility (PPV), exchange rate (LEXR), and inflation (LCPI) from 1991 to 2024 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Descriptive results show that PPV had the highest variability (mean 0.65; standard deviation 1.07), while LEXR and LCPI were relatively more stable. Trend analysis indicates that poultry price volatility was high in the early 1990s but declined steadily after 2005, coinciding with persistent inflation and cycles of exchange rate depreciation and appreciation.Unit root and bounds tests confirm that the variables werecointegrated, with an F-statistic of 4.50 exceeding the upper bound at 5 percent significance. The long-run estimates reveal that inflation hada negative effect on poultry price volatility (−0.109), while the exchange rate exerteda positive effect (0.2702). The errorcorrection term (−0.336) indicates a 33.6 percent adjustment to equilibrium each period. In the short run, changes in inflation (0.942) and lagged exchange rate variations significantly influenced poultry price volatility. These findings underscore the importance of stabilizing exchange rates and controlling inflation to reduce price volatility in Nigeria’s poultry sector. Full article

Global critical mineral production patterns differ markedly across the metals needed for advanced energy technologies. This study examines the extraction and processing landscape, in the year 2024, of six key commodities—lithium, cobalt, aluminum, nickel, manganese, and copper—to identify who the major players (countries and corporations) are in the critical mineral space and to understand what they are mining, where they are mining, and where are they sending their ore to be processed. This study aims to provide a snapshot of the critical mineral supply chain that serves as a useful resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand and improve the critical mineral supply chain. We analyze company financial filings, government datasets, and other public and proprietary sources for the year 2024. Then, we calculate production volumes and identify geographic and corporate concentration. The results show that copper and aluminum production and processing are relatively diverse, while lithium and cobalt extraction and processing are highly concentrated among a few countries and dominant firms. Nickel and manganese occupy an intermediate position, displaying moderate diversity with emerging signs of consolidation. Full article

We study one of the world’s largest cattle markets by revisiting and extending previous work on the forecasting of Brazil’s Boi Gordo Index (BGI). Using an updated daily dataset (July 2006–September 2025, inflation-adjusted), we evaluate classical and machine learning (ML) approaches for price prediction. Methods include Exponential Smoothing (Simple, Holt, and Holt–Winters), ARMA/ARIMA/SARIMA, GARMA variants, GARCH, Theta, Prophet, and XGBoost; models are compared under a strictly chronological 90/10 holdout (~476 test days) using RMSE, MAE, and MSE, with the AIC guiding within-family selection. Results show that, for the full out-of-sample window, GARMA delivers the best overall accuracy, with ARMA and Holt–Winters close behind, while Prophet and XGBoost perform comparatively worse in this volatile setting. Performance is horizon-dependent: in the first 180 test days, prior to the late-2024 level shift, Holt attains the lowest RMSE/MSE, and XGBoost achieves the lowest MAE. No method anticipates the October–November 2024 exogenous jump and subsequent correction, highlighting the difficulty of structural breaks and the need for timely re-specification. We conclude that GARMA is a robust default for long, turbulent windows, whereas smoothing and ML methods can be competitive on shorter horizons. These findings inform risk measurement and risk mitigation strategies in Brazil’s cattle futures market. Full article