Spatial Dynamics and Drivers of Carbon–Pollution Synergy in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration

Reducing carbon emissions while improving air quality is a central challenge for rapidly urbanizing regions. Focusing on 31 prefecture-level cities in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration, this study examines carbon–pollution synergy (CPS), spatial dynamics, and the driving factors of CO₂ and representative air pollutants from 2013 to 2023. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, a revised four-factor Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition, and a factor-based CPS assessment were used to identify spatial clustering, compare driver heterogeneity, and evaluate coordination between CO₂ and primary pollutants. To improve methodological consistency, the LMDI decomposition and CPS assessment focus on the primary pollutants SO₂, CO, and NO₂, whereas PM_2.5 and O₃ are retained in the spatial analysis and discussion because they are strongly affected by secondary formation, atmospheric transport, and meteorological conditions. The results show that CO₂ and the selected pollutants exhibit significant but pollutant-specific spatial clustering. High CO₂ values remain concentrated in the core cities of Wuhan, Changsha, and Nanchang, PM_2.5 shows a persistent north–south gradient, and SO₂ hotspots shift from traditional industrial cores toward peripheral areas receiving industrial relocation. The revised LMDI results show that economic development is the most stable positive driver of CO₂ and the primary pollutants, whereas the energy-consumption factor generally suppresses emissions. The recalculated population-scale factor fluctuates around 1, indicating a comparatively limited and stage-dependent contribution once the other factors are controlled for. CPS analysis further indicates that coordinated reduction is most robust under the energy-consumption factor and, for conventional combustion-related pollutants, also under the energy-structure factor. Overall, the region has a clear basis for CPS governance, but effective implementation requires pollutant-specific and region-specific control strategies rather than a uniform co-mitigation pathway.