4.1. Risk Assessment
The integrated analysis of the thermal regime and phase behavior reveals that the XIII reservoir unit was initially in a state of delicate thermodynamic equilibrium. The initial reservoir temperature (60–65 °C) was critically close to the wax saturation point (57–60 °C), meaning even minor local cooling could initiate deposition. Dynamic testing via the Wax Flow Loop identified two definitive stages of this process: the Wax Appearance Temperature (WAT) at 41.0–44.0 °C and the bulk crystallization interval at 33.5–35.0 °C. The transition to bulk crystallization serves as the primary technological marker, as it signifies the shift from surface-driven nucleation to the rapid growth of a three-dimensional crystalline framework throughout the oil volume. This volumetric structuring leads to an exponential rise in viscosity and the effective blockage of low-permeability interlayers, explaining the established 20–35% decline in displacement efficiency. The validation of the link between laboratory-scale Wax Flow Loop results and reservoir-scale behavior is based on the thermodynamic invariance of phase transition temperatures as intrinsic properties of the crude oil composition. While hydrodynamic conditions differ, the transition to bulk crystallization (33.5–35.0 °C) triggers an identical physical transformation of the oil into a non-Newtonian viscoplastic mass within the rock matrix. This scaling is empirically validated by production logging data (PLD) and residual oil saturation analysis in the cooled sectors of the XIII horizon. Specifically, sectors where reservoir temperatures have dropped to 20–30 °C exhibit the predicted ‘switching off’ of low-permeability interlayers, confirming that the laboratory-identified bulk crystallization threshold serves as a definitive boundary for recovery degradation at the field scale. Given that current temperatures in cooled zones have dropped to 20–30 °C—well below both the WAT and bulk thresholds—wax precipitation within the porous medium is now a systemic factor.
The obtained set of temperature characteristics—initial and bulk wax crystallization onset temperatures, wax melting temperature, and the flowability loss range—indicates that the thermal regime of the XIII reservoir unit was initially “critically close” to the wax phase transition conditions, while long-term cold-water waterflooding shifted the system into a domain where wax crystallization and oil structuring become inevitable. At the initial reservoir temperature of 60–65 °C and a wax saturation temperature of 57–60 °C, even minor local cooling could trigger crystallization; under current conditions, in the cooled reservoir zones, actual temperatures are already below both the initial and bulk crystallization thresholds, implying stable persistence of a solid wax phase within the pore space.
Of particular importance is the narrow bulk crystallization interval of 33.5–35.0 °C. At these temperatures, wax crystallization moves from nucleation to rapid bulk growth. This process creates a three-dimensional wax framework. Such structural changes lead to a sharp increase in the effective viscosity of the crude oil. Under conditions of high water cut and pronounced reservoir heterogeneity, this leads to early crossing of the critical temperature interval in low-permeability interlayers with limited thermal buffering, causing them to be effectively excluded from filtration flow, while higher-permeability zones may retain mobility for a longer period. This mechanism explains the calculated 20–35% decrease in displacement efficiency and the accelerated degradation of residual oil recovery in low-permeability zones. At the pore scale, this degradation is driven by a combination of mechanisms: surface deposition of wax crystals on the pore walls, which narrows the effective flow paths, and pore throat plugging, where wax crystal aggregates physically obstruct the narrowest channels of the porous medium. Furthermore, the formation of a complex wax gel network within the larger pores creates additional resistance to flow, effectively trapping oil and reducing the overall permeability of the formation.
Comparison with data from other high-wax fields confirms the universality of the identified mechanisms: in many cases, reservoir cooling to or below the WAT leads to a significant increase in hydraulic resistance, wax precipitation in the porous medium, and a noticeable decline in well production rates. For Uzen, the situation is aggravated by the combination of extremely high wax content (up to 29 wt.%) and very high water cut (up to 89.8%), which intensifies viscosity growth and system structuring during cooling.
The obtained results allow ARPD to be reinterpreted not as a purely operational complication, but as a systemic factor limiting oil recovery at the late stage of development. Under these conditions, conventional reactive approaches—periodic thermal treatments and mechanical wellbore cleaning—are energy-intensive and insufficiently effective: complete dissolution of deposits requires heating to temperatures close to 61–62 °C, whereas actual reservoir temperatures in the cooled zones are far below this level. Therefore, the key direction should be proactive thermal regime management, including control of injected water volume and temperature, spatial waterflood selection, and the application of localized thermal and chemical treatments designed with consideration of the initial and bulk crystallization intervals and the flowability loss range.
4.3. Critique and Comparative Analysis of Wax Crystallization Onset Temperature and Deposition Depth Data
The wax crystallization onset temperature is one of the key parameters that governs technological decisions aimed at preventing solid wax phase formation within the reservoir and the near-wellbore zone. According to calculations for a hypothetical well at the Uzen oil field, wax deposits may form at a depth of 650 m from the wellhead at a crystallization onset temperature of 47 °C.
Comparison of these data with dynamic laboratory results, where the initial crystallization onset temperature ranged from 41.0 to 44.0 °C, supports several key conclusions. The calculated crystallization onset temperature for the hypothetical well exceeds the maximum experimental value, indicating a potentially earlier onset of wax deposition in wells compared with laboratory measurements on individual samples. A higher crystallization onset temperature implies wax precipitation at elevated temperatures, thereby expanding the risk zone for deposition. In addition, the identified deposition onset depth (650 m) is shallower than the previously indicated interval of 700–800 m, suggesting that ARPD-related issues may occur closer to the wellhead, increasing the complexity and cost of both preventive and remedial interventions.
However, long-term injection of cold seawater (+7 to +20 °C) and produced water within the reservoir pressure maintenance system leads to significant reservoir cooling. When cold water is injected into the formation, the temperature near the injection wells decreases and falls below the wax saturation temperature. As a result, wax precipitates from the crude oil within the porous medium of the productive formations, adversely affecting field development [
23,
24]. Recent studies confirm that this process is accompanied by a significant reduction in phase permeability and necessitates the integration of modern thermodynamic models to predict displacement efficiency [
25,
26].
During the displacement of high-wax crude oil by cold water injection, a hazardous temperature change occurs, which may lead to wax precipitation and solidification, transforming it into an immobile solid phase. This physical mechanism reduces the efficiency of water displacement of high-wax crude oil at temperatures below the original reservoir conditions. The wax crystallization onset temperature (both experimental, 41–44 °C, and calculated, 47 °C) is significantly higher than the temperatures observed in cooled reservoir zones and near-wellbore regions, inevitably leading to deposit formation. ARPD also deteriorates filtration properties, reduces well production rates, and increases operating costs.
The dynamic method using the Wax Flow Loop system, which simulates oil flow in a pipeline, demonstrated that the wax crystallization onset temperature is recorded when the volume of formed deposits becomes sufficient to noticeably affect flow parameters, such as an increase in differential pressure. This confirms that under real operating conditions, where oil is flowing and cooling, ARPD formation occurs actively, causing hydraulic resistance and a reduction in throughput capacity. The bulk crystallization temperature (33.5–35.0 °C) is significantly lower than the initial crystallization onset temperature, indicating a wide temperature interval over which active formation and densification of the wax structure take place. This means that even with a relatively small decrease in temperature below the initial crystallization threshold, the deposition process will continue, aggravating the problem.
The absence of high-melting wax fractions (melting temperature 61–62 °C) suggests that the main wax deposition issues will arise not in the deeper, hotter parts of the reservoir, but during cooling of the oil as it ascends the wellbore and during subsequent transportation, where temperature conditions intersect the crystallization interval. When degassed crude oil is cooled below 20 °C, it completely loses flowability due to the formation of a rigid internal structure. The flowability loss temperature range (25–34 °C) is critical, as reaching these values significantly increases the risk of complete blockage of wells and pipelines.
The results summarized in
Table 7 clearly demonstrate that the thermal regime of development of the XIII reservoir unit at the Uzen oil field is a key factor determining the high tendency of the crude oil to form ARPD. Unlike many fields where ARPD primarily develops in the near-wellbore zone or at advanced stages of production, Uzen is characterized by a systemic overlap of unfavorable thermal conditions already at the reservoir level.
Particular attention should be paid to the extremely small difference between the initial reservoir temperature (60–65 °C) and the wax saturation temperature of the crude oil (57–60 °C). Such a “critical convergence” of parameters indicates that the thermodynamic equilibrium of the system was initially close to instability. Even during the early development stage, any local temperature decrease—for example, near injection wells or under heterogeneous flow conditions—could potentially initiate wax crystallization.
Table 7 confirms that subsequent cold water injection fully realized this inherent risk.
A critically important aspect of the development of the XIII reservoir unit is the established 20–35% reduction in oil displacement efficiency when reservoir temperature decreases by 15–20 °C. The detailed explanation of this phenomenon lies in reaching the bulk crystallization threshold (33.5–35.0 °C), which serves as a key technological marker.
This volumetric structuring of crude oil directly within the porous reservoir medium triggers a cascading negative effect: a sharp increase in effective fluid viscosity and a significant rise in filtration resistance.
Under conditions of geological heterogeneity, this results in the preferential blockage of low-permeability interlayers, which are effectively excluded from the filtration process. Thus, crossing the bulk crystallization threshold leads to rapid degradation of reserve recovery and confirms that even moderate anthropogenic cooling may have critical consequences for ultimate oil recovery. This degradation is the direct result of the transition from individual crystal nucleation to the development of a stable three-dimensional crystalline framework. This framework acts as a wax gel network that immobilizes the oil phase, while simultaneously, pore throat plugging and surface deposition further exacerbate the loss of connectivity within the reservoir’s pore space. The necessity of accounting for these effects is further emphasized by the variability of wax crystallization temperatures, which may range from 18 to 45 °C for different crude oils.
Synthesis of these results indicates that for the Uzen field, the risk of ARPD is not a localized near-wellbore issue but a systemic reservoir-scale phenomenon. The intersection of the bulk crystallization threshold with the actual reservoir temperature in cooled zones (20–30 °C) marks a permanent phase transition of the oil from a Newtonian fluid to a non-Newtonian viscoplastic mass directly within the rock matrix. This transformation necessitates a fundamental shift from periodic reactive well treatments to continuous thermal management of the entire waterflooding system to prevent irreversible loss of recovery from low-permeability zones.
The bulk crystallization threshold (33.5–35.0 °C) identified by the dynamic Wax Flow Loop method serves as the ultimate boundary for efficient field development. Crossing this temperature line during reservoir cooling triggers an avalanche-like increase in hydraulic resistance, rendering standard displacement methods ineffective due to the systemic gelation of the crude oil within the filtration channels.
The overlap of current thermal conditions with the bulk crystallization interval and the subsequent flowability loss range (25–34 °C) creates inevitable risks of complete blockage of filtration channels, necessitating the immediate implementation of proactive reservoir thermal management strategies.
The flowability loss temperature presented in the table represents another critical indicator. The laboratory range of 25–34 °C overlaps with oil temperatures under intensive cooling conditions, particularly during well shutdowns and restarts after downtime. This indicates that the Uzen field is exposed not only to gradual operational complications but also to emergency scenarios associated with the complete loss of production mobility.
The formation of ARPD at depths of 650–800 m suggests that the zone of intensive deposition is located significantly above the bottomhole. This substantially complicates mitigation efforts, as it requires treatment of extended intervals of the production casing and the application of integrated approaches—thermal, chemical, and operational. In combination with the high wax melting temperature (61–62 °C), this renders conventional periodic heating methods energy-intensive and economically burdensome.
Overall, the data presented in
Table 7 confirm the multifactorial and self-sustaining nature of ARPD formation in the XIII reservoir unit of the Uzen field. An unfavorable initial thermal balance, intensified by cold water injection, interacts with the phase behavior characteristics of high-wax crude oil and reservoir geological heterogeneity. The obtained results justify the transition from reactive ARPD removal measures to proactive management of the reservoir and well thermal regime, as well as to the differentiated selection of deposition prevention strategies based on actual thermodynamic operating conditions.