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Article

Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal

1
Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar 25120, Pakistan
2
National Institute of Urban Infrastructure Planning (NIUIP), University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar 25120, Pakistan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Antonio Gil Bravo and Ming-Lang Tseng
Eng 2021, 2(3), 296-311; https://doi.org/10.3390/eng2030019
Received: 4 April 2021 / Revised: 18 July 2021 / Accepted: 19 July 2021 / Published: 23 July 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Stylistic Design Engineering (SDE))
This paper aims to analyze national policies of Pakistan taking into account the complexity of electric power generation, growth, and complying with multilateral agreements. Systems thinking has been applied to understand the complexity of energy scenario of Pakistan by representing it with a causal loop diagram (CLD) which displays the interconnectedness and feedbacks of the system. Analysis is based on systems archetypes to diagnose the system behavior, i.e., falling into the vicious cycle of coal. A stock-and-flow model was employed to capture dynamics of energy generation quantitatively, indicating that a 5% GDP growth rate could be sustained based on current planning to increase electric power generation in Pakistan. Thus, in order to achieve a 7% GDP growth rate, as targeted in Vision 2025 of Pakistan, energy generation targets would need to be revised in the view of the sensitivity of increase in energy demand associated with GDP growth rate, while ensuring compliance with multilateral agreements. View Full-Text
Keywords: energy policy; systems thinking; causal loop diagram; systems archetypes energy policy; systems thinking; causal loop diagram; systems archetypes
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MDPI and ACS Style

Durrani, A.A.; Khan, I.A.; Ahmad, M.I. Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal. Eng 2021, 2, 296-311. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng2030019

AMA Style

Durrani AA, Khan IA, Ahmad MI. Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal. Eng. 2021; 2(3):296-311. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng2030019

Chicago/Turabian Style

Durrani, Ali Ahmed, Irfan Ahmed Khan, and Muhammad Imran Ahmad. 2021. "Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal" Eng 2, no. 3: 296-311. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng2030019

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