Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Previous Work on Systems Thinking in Electric Power Generation
3. Methodology
3.1. Endogenous Variables
3.2. Exogenous Variables
3.3. Causal Loop Diagram of Electric Power Generation in Pakistan
4. Applying Systems Archetypes for Diagnosis
4.1. Fixes That Fail
4.2. Shifting the Burden
4.3. Growth and Under-Investment
5. Simulation Results
- = Cumulative energy demand (MW),
- = Overall energy demand (MW/yr),
- = Delta time,
- = Time (yr).
- (MW/yr),
- in year 2018 = 26,714 MW,
- OEG = Overall Energy Generation (MW),
- T&D losses = Transmission and Distribution losses (20%),
- CEDFO = Cumulative Energy Generation from Furnace Oil (MW)
- CEDH = Cumulative Energy Generation from Hydro (MW)
- CEDIC = Cumulative Energy Generation from Imported Coal (MW)
- CEDLC = Cumulative Energy Generation from Local Coal (MW)
- CEDNG = Cumulative Energy Generation from Natural Gas (MW)
- CEDN = Cumulative Energy Generation from Nuclear (MW)
- CEDR = Cumulative Energy Generation from Renewable (MW)
- CEDRLNG = Cumulative Energy Generation from Re-Gasified Liquefied Natural Gas (MW)
- CC = Current Capacity (22,715 MW energy generated in 2018).
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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S.No. | Parameters/Assumptions | Coal (CPPs) | Hydro (HPPs) | Nuclear (NPPs) | Ref. Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Capacity Factor | 70% | 50% | 80% | [12] |
2 | Construction time | 3 years | 7 years 1 | 7 years | [12,53] |
3 | Plant Capacities | 660 MW | 1240 MW 2 | 1100 MW | [12] |
4 | Plant life | 30 years | 150 years | 40 years | [54] |
5 | T&D losses | 20% | [54] | ||
6 | Initial Budget 3 | 1650BPKR | [55] | ||
7 | Fund Increase Rate 4 | 20%(Est) | [55,56] |
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Durrani, A.A.; Khan, I.A.; Ahmad, M.I. Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal. Eng 2021, 2, 296-311. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng2030019
Durrani AA, Khan IA, Ahmad MI. Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal. Eng. 2021; 2(3):296-311. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng2030019
Chicago/Turabian StyleDurrani, Ali Ahmed, Irfan Ahmed Khan, and Muhammad Imran Ahmad. 2021. "Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal" Eng 2, no. 3: 296-311. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng2030019
APA StyleDurrani, A. A., Khan, I. A., & Ahmad, M. I. (2021). Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal. Eng, 2(3), 296-311. https://doi.org/10.3390/eng2030019