Korean Peninsula—Updated Sea-Level Rise Assessment

The Korean Peninsula is critically exposed to impacts associated with current and projected rising mean sea-levels (MSLs) associated with climate change. Rising MSL will continue to exacerbate existing coastal hazards (e.g., typhoon-driven storm surges, tidal inundation, beach erosion, etc.). This study updates the previous 2019 national sea-level rise assessment with an additional 7 years of tidal and satellite altimetry data. Having corrected the rate of “relative” MSL rise for vertical land motion, only Busan and Ulsan tide gauge records have not experienced an increase in the rate of “geocentric” MSL rise since the 2019 Assessment. At the 95% CL, the current rate of “geocentric” MSL rise at all stations accord with recent published estimates of the rate of global MSL rise. From satellite altimetry of the sea margins around the Korean Peninsula, there has been a small (≈1%) increase in the average regional trend of sea-level anomalies (SLAs) compared to the previous assessment. The most significant trend estimates in SLAs continue to increase in margins of the East Sea (Sea of Japan) between 35° N and 40° N with increases of around 11% in the average rate of trend above the 2019 Assessment.