Quantitative Indicators of the Circular Economy for Covered Pond-Type Bioreactors in Tropical Regions: Application to a Large-Scale Pig Farming System

Anaerobic digestion is a viable pathway to mitigate environmental impacts from swine manure in tropical regions while contributing to circular economy strategies. However, no standardized or integrated framework currently exists that simultaneously quantifies the closure of energy, material, carbon, nutrient, and water loops at the farm scale. This research presents the techno-economic design and environmental assessment of a covered, mechanically agitated lagoon biodigester for a 10,000-head swine fattening module located in Matanzas, Cuba. The system is sized by integrating hydraulic, thermal, and structural parameters, and its economic viability is assessed through Net Present Value (NPV = $1.09 million), Internal Rate of Return (IRR = 32%), and a payback period of approximately three years. A comparative screening-level life cycle assessment shows that biogas-based electricity generation substantially reduces impacts on climate change, air quality, and fossil fuel scarcity compared with conventional diesel-based generation, with trade-offs in eutrophication and ecotoxicity. As a key methodological contribution, five quantitative circular economy indicators are proposed and calculated: the Energy Self-Sufficiency Ratio (ESSR = 1.71), the Waste Valorization Index (WVI = 0.91), the Decarbonization Index (DCI = 6.7), the Fertilizer Substitution Rate (FSR = 16.3 t N year⁻¹), and the Water Closure Factor (WCF = 1.30). These indicators show that the system achieves a 71% net energy surplus, valorizes over 90% of the input mass, avoids 6.7 times more emissions than it generates, replaces synthetic fertilizers, and returns more water than it consumes. The findings provide quantitative evidence that the convergence of mesophilic operation without auxiliary heating, high carbon intensity of the power grid, and availability of agricultural land enhances circularity performance in tropical covered lagoon bioreactors, and the proposed integrated indicator framework, aligned with ISO 59020:2024, provides a reproducible and transferable methodological basis for the comparative assessment of anaerobic digestion systems for livestock waste.