Regional Development Assessment and Policy Perspectives on Urban Residential Energy Efficiency Program in Morocco by 2030

Abstract

Energy efficiency has emerged as a crucial focal point in global agendas, being recognized for its pivotal role in combatting climate change, bolstering energy security, and fostering economic growth. Governments worldwide are formulating ambitious targets and enacting comprehensive strategies to optimize energy utilization across various sectors. This involves the formulation of policies, provision of incentives, and facilitation of collaborations to encourage energy-efficient practices, ultimately steering towards a sustainable and energy-efficient future. Notably, the residential sector stands as a pivotal component in these efforts due to its substantial share of energy consumption. This paper evaluates the strategic vision of Morocco concerning energy efficiency within the residential sector from its inception to the projected initiatives up to 2030. The analysis focuses on the current iteration of thermal regulations and its implications. Although specific numerical outcomes are not discussed herein, the implementation of these regulations is observed to yield notable benefits, including reductions in energy bills and gains in annual primary energy. These advantages are estimated to result in a substantial decrease in final energy consumption, equating to significant savings for end-users. Additionally, to cover the expenses associated with building repairs and thermal enhancements, an extra fee is levied, varying based on building typology and climatic region. Despite this additional investment, the associated costs typically exhibit a favorable payback period, on average, underscoring the efficacy of regulatory and profitability measures in driving energy efficiency within the residential sector. This paper examines Morocco’s strategic approach to energy efficiency in the residential sector, focusing on its thermal building regulation RTCM (Moroccan thermal regulation on construction). Energy efficiency is recognized as essential for reducing GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, enhancing energy security, and lowering costs. Using simulation models across six climatic zones and three residential building types, the study highlights RTCM’s significant impact—achieving national energy savings between 39% and 68%. Despite added costs for thermal improvements, the measures show favorable payback periods, confirming RTCM’s strong energy and economic performance and its potential role in shaping future policies.

1. Introduction

1.1. General Appraisal

Addressing the pressing issue of global climate change presents an imperative environmental challenge that transcends national boundaries. Environmental advocates across the globe are issuing warnings to governments and corporate entities, emphasizing the potential accelerated depletion of natural resources beyond projected timelines [1]. Energy consumption is on an upward trajectory in both developed and developing nations, with Europe and the United States poised for a significant 40% and 50% surge, respectively, by 2030. Meanwhile, India is expected to witness a doubling of energy consumption, while China’s figures are projected to triple. In response to these sobering trends, a cohesive global endeavor has been launched to curtail greenhouse gas emissions [2].

Confronted with the dire consequences of the global climate catastrophe, the international community has unequivocally committed to implementing bold and decisive measures outlined in the Paris Agreement. Endorsed by 191 nations, this landmark accord aims to limit the rise in global temperatures to within the critical thresholds of 2 and 1.5 degrees Celsius by the close of the century. Reinforcing this imperative, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)’s specialized report on land use emphasizes the urgent need to extend our focus beyond industrial, transportation, and energy systems and address our agricultural framework as a key driver in significantly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, all while safeguarding biodiversity and the invaluable ecosystems [3]. To this end, the global consensus on energy efficiency is gaining momentum as countries worldwide converge on the imperative of maximizing energy efficiency across sectors. This strategic shift recognizes the urgent need to optimize energy consumption and reduce waste in order to address pressing environmental challenges and achieve sustainable development goals. Governments, businesses, and communities are increasingly embracing the principles of energy efficiency, recognizing its potential to enhance resource utilization, mitigate climate change, and foster economic competitiveness. This collective commitment to energy efficiency reflects a shared understanding of its pivotal role in designing resilient and sustainable future. In line with these paramount objectives, Morocco, once again, assumes its rightful role in actively participating in this crucial endeavor.

Morocco’s recent energy policy is driving a significant transition in its energy sector by welcoming private investments. The policy recognizes the pivotal role of various stakeholders, including local authorities, industrialists, service operators, farmers, and residential subscribers, in shaping the energy landscape. By involving these actors, the goal of the policy is to establish a more inclusive and participatory approach to energy management, paving the way for a sustainable and diversified energy future. To address growing energy demand, measures are being implemented to control consumption and establish regulatory standards for energy performance in buildings. The Moroccan Agency of Energy Efficiency, with support from UNDP and collaboration with potential partners, has introduced the buildings thermal regulation, a crucial element of the national energy efficiency program in the building sector [4]. These efforts are part of the national energy efficiency strategy, aiming to save 20% on energy by 2030 [5]. The strategy’s goal is to increase energy efficiency by putting policies in place to slow the energy demand’s increase. This involves optimizing energy usage, minimizing waste, and adopting a sustainable approach to meet the country’s energy needs. It also covers issues including the necessity for energy-conscious building design equipment, construction and management, as well as the growing cost of fossil fuels.

1.2. Energy Efficiency Policy Framework

1.2.1. Morocco’s Final Energy Consumption in the Building Sector

The building sector is one of the major energy consumers, making it crucial to address. In 2019, it accounted for 33% of total energy use, with residential buildings (according to the Moroccan High Commission for Planning (HCP) and AMEE reports (2018, 2021)), apartments, villas, and MMHs representing 91% of urban residential buildings. Their selection in this study ensures a representative modeling of the residential sector across socioeconomic and typological diversity, making up 26%, and tertiary buildings 7%. Forecasts indicate that this sector’s energy usage will rise significantly as a result of the evolving building stock and higher use of domestic equipment. Given this, it is important to put rules and procedures into place improving building energy efficiency, reducing environmental impact, and promoting sustainable development [6].

Morocco has experienced a remarkable surge in urbanization, with the urbanization rate escalating from 29% to 60% in 2020 [5]. Projections indicate that the urban population will constitute a substantial two-thirds of the total population [7]. Primary energy consumption in the building sector has significantly increased as a result of this quick urbanization, consequently leading to significant CO₂ emissions [8]. Recognizing the critical interplay between economic prosperity and environmental sustainability, reducing building sector energy consumption has emerged as a pivotal policy focus on several energy types Figure 1. In response, public authorities have initiated preliminary measures to tackle these pressing concerns. However, in order to effectively address this complex challenge, a comprehensive and strategic approach must be devised, encompassing targeted policies, regulatory frameworks, and innovative solutions to promote energy efficiency, optimize resource utilization, and provide the foundation for a resilient and sustainable urban future.

Butane gas, which accounts for 60% of primary energy consumed in homes, is most frequently utilized for cooking and hot water preparation as mentioned in Figure 2. Value-wise, the average household spends about MAD 3000 a year on energy.

Between 2000 and 2015, the typical household’s annual electricity use rose from 700 kWh to over 1500 kWh. With a 45% annual electricity use, the refrigerator is currently the appliance that uses the most electricity, followed by the television (18%) and lights (20%) as illustrated in Figure 3.

1.2.2. National EE Strategy

Morocco has adopted a national energy plan that prioritizes energy efficiency since 2009. The initial steps toward energy efficiency were taken immediately after the launch of the National Energy Strategy through the implementation of the National Priority Action Plan between 2009 and 2013. Through the introduction of energy efficiency programs, significant energy savings have been achieved, resulting in enhanced national capabilities and increased awareness of the importance of energy efficiency [9].

Morocco’s strategic vision for energy efficiency in buildings aligns with three primary national development agendas. Firstly, the National Sustainable Development Strategy seeks to promote sustainable economic growth, social progress, and environmental protection, with an emphasis on building energy efficiency for resource conservation and improved living spaces. Secondly, the National Energy Strategy emphasizes optimizing energy consumption across sectors and prioritizes energy-efficient buildings to reduce demand, enhance security, and promote renewable sources. Lastly, the dedicated Energy Efficiency Strategy outlines specific targets, policies, and programs to foster energy-efficient practices and technologies, aiming to achieve significant energy savings, lower carbon emissions, and enhance overall performance in various sectors, including buildings.

Morocco actively integrates energy efficiency into its national development agendas, aiming to balance economic growth with environmental and social well-being. While making progress, the country is committed to further enhancing energy efficiency as a crucial part of its energy transition. involving a broad spectrum of stakeholders, such as the public, commercial, and nongovernmental organizations, Morocco is crafting a comprehensive strategy for a more sustainable and resilient energy future. This positive direction was guided by a well-defined legislative framework that prioritized energy efficiency in all types of buildings, as well as industrial activities. The

Table 1. Energy efficiency legislative framework—Morocco [10].

Law Project	Description
Law No. 47-09 on energy efficiency, 2011	It creates the framework for all economic sectors’ understanding of energy performance. It stipulates how to carry out the following: - Building Energy Code: Aiming to set energy performance rules for construction based on climatic zones, addressing aspects such as orientation, lighting, insulation, thermal flows, and renewable energy contributions. - Minimum Energy Performance Criteria for Equipment: Regulations establish minimum energy performance criteria for devices and equipment that are offered for sale inside the national territory and run on electricity, natural gas, coal, liquid or gaseous petroleum products, or renewable energy. - Any program involving the construction of buildings or urban growth must include an energy impact study. - Energy audits are required for organizations, companies, and people whose yearly usage of electrical and/or thermal energy surpasses a certain level.
Law Nº. 47-09 Decree implementing 2015 General Construction Regulations governing buildings’ energy performance	Reducing the amount of heating and cooling that newly built homes and businesses require is the aim of this rule. For buildings with window-to-wall ratios of less than 45%, it applies a performance-based approach; for other buildings, it uses a prescriptive method. The building walls’ thermal transmission coefficients are the main focus of the technical requirements. The owner of the building must submit a technical sheet outlining the proposed structure’s thermal performance and proving compliance with regulations in order to obtain a construction permit.
No. 47-09 Decree project implementing law about the energy labeling performance thresholds for equipment	The statement stipulates that appliances and equipment sold within the national borders must comply with minimum performance and energy labeling criteria. For every single piece of machinery and appliance, a cooperative ordinance will specify the following: - The requirements that must be satisfied before it is released into the market, including minimum energy performance levels and the data needed to prove compliance. - The energy efficiency classes. - The upcoming decrees will outline the precise dates on which the mandatory requirement will come into force as well as the procedure for determining compliance, in compliance with the previously specified provisions of Law 12-06. - All manufacturers, importers, and distributors must make sure that every piece of machinery and appliance they sell on the domestic market complies with the decrees’ requirements.
Law No. 47-09 Draft decree implementing energy impact studies	An obligation to evaluate the energy consequences of all new construction and urban development initiatives is included by the proposed decree. Planning for anticipated energy use and putting necessary changes into place in accordance with national energy and energy efficiency policies are the goals. The following components are included in the energy impact study: - A comprehensive description of the project’s key components, characteristics, implementation stages, and energy resources utilized. - An assessment of the energy needs at each stage of the project’s development, operation, or construction. - Recommendations for ways to minimize energy use that comply with current regulations by utilizing renewable energy resources and improving and optimizing energy efficiency. - In order to guarantee the project’s successful implementation, operation, and further development, a monitoring and tracking program must be put in place, together with established measures for training, communication, and effective management.
Norm NM 14.2.300 2012 standard for labeling appliances and domestic electrical goods	Equipment covered includes air-conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and other cooling appliances; ovens for cooking; washing machines, dishwashers, and dryers; and domestic electric lamps, which can be either incandescent or fluorescent and have integrated ballast. In 2018, this standard was revised in conjunction with special standards 14.2.301 and 14.2.302 to more successfully execute the criteria for refrigerator and air-conditioner labeling, respectively.

presents the key laws pertaining to the building sector [10].

1.2.3. EE Strategy (Building Sector)

Morocco has made significant strides in building energy efficiency through government policies, technology innovation, and increased awareness of sustainable construction practices. Key initiatives include the “Efficient Building Labeling” program, which promotes and recognizes energy-efficient structures. The widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies has reduced reliance on fossil fuels. Public awareness campaigns and education have played a vital role in promoting energy-conscious building practices. These efforts position Morocco as a model for sustainable urban development in Africa, showcasing the impact of strategic policies and industry collaboration.

Morocco’s push for building energy efficiency centers on key measures: The National Energy Efficiency Program (PNEE) has set higher performance standards since 2011. The Efficient Building Labeling program promotes advanced construction techniques. Renewable energy integration, technological advancements, and government-led initiatives further cut energy use and costs. Financial incentives and ongoing monitoring drive compliance with standards.

In this regard, to create this normative and regulatory framework controlling energy performance in the building industry, the Moroccan Agency of Energy Efficiency developed thermal regulation in buildings as a significant pillar of the national program of the building sector energy efficiency in November 2014, with the UNDP support and in consultation with potential sector partners. It was forced into effect in November 2015. As a result, it will contribute to minimizing the use of fossil fuels by 19% by 2030 [5]. Overall, Morocco’s emphasis on building energy efficiency yields environmental and economic gains. It lowers energy costs for both building owners and occupants, establishing Morocco as a leader in energy-efficient construction practices.

Moroccan law (47-09) requires buildings to meet the energy efficiency standards outlined in the general building code. These standards focus on factors like lighting, orientation, insulation, and thermal dynamics for balanced energy use. They apply to both new constructions and renovations. Since November 2015, compliance with thermal building prerequisites (RTCMs) has been mandatory, following the issuance of Decree No. 2-13-874 in 2014. This decree specifies technical criteria for elements like walls, roofs, and windows. Additionally, it establishes annual maximums for heating and cooling energy use according to climate zones. For a detailed overview of Moroccan energy regulations and policies to enhance building energy efficiency, consult

Table 2. Morocco’s residential sector energy regulations [6].

Policy	Year	Status
Decree No. 927-20 on the mandatory use of Moroccan norms.	2020	In force
The mandatory energy audits and energy audit companies, Decree No. 2-17-746.	2019	In force
Program for energy-efficient public buildings.	2019	In force
Air-conditioner MEPS.	2018	In force
Contributions determined nationally (NDC)	2016	In force
MorSEFE	2015	In force
Decree No. 2-13-874 concerning building thermal regulation	2014	In force
Moroccan 14.2.300 Standard NM	2010	In force

.

Numerous regulations and programs targeting enhanced building energy efficiency incorporate climate zoning as a pivotal element. Within most schemes aimed at improving building energy efficiency, specific values or recommendations are stipulated [11,12]. Xiong et al. [13] have proposed that smaller, more homogenous temperature zones may contribute to the development of more efficient buildings and consequently, superior indoor thermal conditions.

Morocco established climate zones for construction rules after a decade-long study. Using TRNSYS software version 18.0 and climate data, six distinct climate zones were identified. The RTCM aligns building requirements with climate zones. Figure 4 shows these regions.

Morocco’s six climatic zones:

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Zone 1 (Agadir): Coastal, mild winters, hot summers.

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Zone 2 (Tangier): Mediterranean with mild humidity.

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Zone 3 (Fes): Continental, hot summers, cold winters.

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Zone 4 (Ifrane): Mountainous, cold winters.

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Zone 5: Inland, dry hot summers.

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Zone 6: Arid desert-like zones.

According to Walsh et al. [11], even though there are numerous methods for defining climatic zones, including the degree-day method, cluster analysis method, energy modeling of buildings, and administrative division, most of the 54 countries that were examined relied on just three factors, methods, or criteria. It is imperative to acknowledge that due to this simplified approach, there are numerous climate and building energy efficiency variables that necessitate attention and are currently overlooked.

1.3. Literature Review

Several researchers around the world are interested in the topic of buildings’ energy efficiency. On the international scale, there have been a significant number of papers published and numerous conclusions and recommendations highlighted. Building construction and operation are heavily dependent on climatic parameters and climatic zones; therefore, climate change adaptation and mitigation will require careful attention to these. Consequently, there is a rise in the quantity of construction publications concerning climate change. Verichev et al. presented a wide range of topics that were both directly and indirectly connected to climate, climatic zones, and structures. It was discovered that 88% of all studies focused on climate change fall, in one way or another, under the umbrella of energy conservation as a whole [14]. Cheng conducted a thorough literature search on the effects of climate change on buildings as well as the tools and techniques that are needed to adapt to it [15]. Most research indicates that rising temperatures and higher humidity levels are likely consequences of climate change, resulting in overheating, which will eventually lead to an increase in cooling load in buildings and a decrease in heating load. Cheng also stated that creating a sustainable building requires an in-depth knowledge of the geographical site and climate of that building. According to Evola’s research [16], the importance of shade in ensuring thermal and visual comfort was underscored by his presentation of a suitable approach for reducing excessive radiation gains while simultaneously increasing efficiency. Additionally, a special scenario of the Jordanian climate was examined for the setback parameter between buildings. The researchers wanted to see whether thermal regulation might affect the residential sector in semiarid areas [17]. This study showed that increasing the setback distance results in a decrease in heating loads for rooms.

Krarti et al. used an optimization study and building simulations to discover the optimal energy efficiency methods to improve building energy performance in Oman. They assessed the economic and environmental benefits, particularly for an existing building. It was demonstrated that the government’s energy retrofit initiative is cost-effective, resulting in a 957 GWh reduction in total yearly electricity consumption [18]. Thermal regulation is also crucial in Australia. To shed light on the benefits of TR and explore the energy life cycle under its settings, Robert H. et al. gave an evaluation of building efficiency improving over 50 years. However, the findings indicate that further regulatory requirements are required to lower life cycle energy needs, which should include a focus on design methods as well as embodied and operational energy [19]. For China, Bao-jie reviewed the consumption condition in the rural building industry, outlined the issues, examined building efficiency, and made recommendations to lead early-stage government activities [20].

Mizgan [21] looked into the possibility for energy savings in educational buildings, which have a higher-than-average total glass area in their envelopes. For a better understanding of their building energy efficiency, an examination of its energy use was conducted. This type of building was studied by Loyde V [22], who came up with an energy-saving plan by presenting the best option to achieve thermal comfort while maintaining the happiness of the occupants.

Ning et al. [23] analyzed the tertiary sector (office building) and compared it to the residential sector in order to recommend a plan for controlling and maintaining the internal temperature during the office’s operating period, which would result in energy savings.

There is also research in the open literature on historical building performance refurbishments, which shows how important it is to preserve these heritage values while also improving their thermal comfort and energy efficiency to meet the new requirements of global thermal regulation programs [24], as well as in specific countries like Saudi Arabia [25].

Efficacy in thermal regulation is measured regarding savings throughout the course of the system’s life cycle. For example, Luz Garcia-Ceballos and Jose Ramon de Andres-Daz used it as a primary indicator in their research to demonstrate the strong link between the nature and the energy and environmental impacts of different materials, employing the life cycle assessment as a feasible approach facilitating the selection of the optimal solution to obtain a working case [26]. In fact, research into new building materials is always evolving in order to provide a variety of options for regulating temperature. Yanru Li used phase-change material in an experimental investigation to reduce energy losses by walls by 18.48% [27].

The building efficiency goals do not need just the implementation of thermal regulation programs and strategies, but also the creativity to develop all ideas which can sensibly help people and create a new reflex in consumption method integration using intelligence and data mining in all building types [28] to include people in development and change to create membership between the strategic orientation of countries and citizens. In the United States, several approaches and studies have been carried out, but small commercial buildings, which account for 90% of all buildings and less than 50% of building consumption, are the subject of a fascinating experience, where a multi-organization partnership and its demonstration partners worked to produce a library of case studies standardized on a case study template in order to promote and facilitate energy efficiency in the market for small commercial buildings. This idea came as a solution to help the users of these types of buildings to adopt efficiency solutions [29]. In addition, many new efficiency vocabulary elements and concepts were developed, such as zero-energy building [30] and bioclimatic building [31], to improve the building energy efficiency issue.

This research paper endeavors to delve into the effectiveness of thermal building regulation in Morocco, with a dual focus on its energetic and economic performance. This is a critical inquiry considering the importance of energy-efficient construction in lowering operating costs and minimizing environmental effects.

To undertake this evaluation, consideration must be given to the many climates that exist throughout Morocco. Hence, a new climatic zoning system has been devised, consisting of six distinct zones. Each zone represents a unique set of weather conditions that buildings in those areas must contend with. This spatially homogenous categorization is crucial as it allows for a more nuanced assessment of the regulation’s impact on buildings in different regional climatic zones in the country.

Furthermore, the establishment of six climate zones by the Moroccan Agency for Energy Efficiency (AMEE) and the National Center of Meteorology is a testament to the meticulous consideration given to the local climate variations. These zones serve as benchmarks for the evaluation process, enabling a comparative analysis of how the thermal building regulation performs under different climatic circumstances.

To accomplish the research objectives, a comprehensive analysis encompassed the three primary types of buildings prevalent in Morocco: apartments, villas, and modern Moroccan houses (MMHs). These architectural categories were chosen due to their prominence and concentration within the established climatic zones of Morocco [32]. The strategic approach involved mapping out all pertinent elements onto the six distinct Moroccan climate zones. This meticulous process aimed to provide an exhaustive examination of the country’s environmental diversity, taking into account the specific economic strata associated with each building type.

Through an extensive energy and economic analysis focused on the residential sector, the study sought to delineate the advantages of implementing the existing thermal building regulation. In doing so, it endeavors to propose a refined version of the regulation that integrates not only energy considerations but also economic and social factors into its framework. This holistic approach seeks to strike a balance between sustainability, economic feasibility, and societal well-being, thereby offering a more comprehensive and effective blueprint for the future of building design and construction in Morocco.

By conducting this comprehensive evaluation, our goal is to offer insightful information about the advantages and possible areas for development of the present regulatory framework. This, in turn, can inform policy decisions and best practices for sustainable building design and construction in Morocco. Additionally, it will shed light on the economic implications of implementing such regulations, offering a holistic perspective that considers both energy efficiency and financial viability. Ultimately, this research seeks to contribute to the advancement of building practices that are not only environmentally responsible but also economically sustainable in the Moroccan context.

The objectives of this study are as follows:

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To quantify energy and economic gains from RTCM implementation across six climatic zones.

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To compare conventional vs. RTCM-compliant construction for three building types.

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To calculate investment payback periods.

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To provide policy recommendations based on simulation outcomes.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Methodology

Enhancing a building’s energy efficiency involves minimizing its energy demand, usage, and associated costs. Employing building thermal simulation models, which rely on detailed energy balances for individual zones, is recommended to accurately predict energy consumption due to the multifaceted nature of thermal interactions within structures. In order to establish a building’s energy balance, precise delineation of the system constraints is imperative. This entails defining initial conditions and boundary parameters, encompassing factors like meteorological conditions and internal heat gains. This process yields a range of state variables, including requirements for heating, cooling, and overall energy demand for the most dominated building types in Morocco Figure 5.

An individual’s thermal comfort is contingent upon a range of elements, encompassing their physical activity levels, clothing choices, and external factors like humidity levels, air movement, mean radiant temperature, and air temperature. The methodological approach, illustrated in Figure 6, adopted in this study for forecasting thermal sensations involved several key steps:

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Characterizing the climatic conditions.

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Detailing all components of the building envelope within the chosen case study.

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Providing specifications for equipment within the building.

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Utilizing the RTCM and conventional building models to compute thermal comfort and evaluate the value-added of RTCM.

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Employing three-dimensional modeling and simulation techniques to analyze the building’s performance over the course of a year.

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Conducting a comprehensive study on energy and economic savings.

The methodology employed in this paper centers around conducting a detailed case study to assess the efficacy of current thermal regulations and their impact on energy usage and cost savings. This involves scrutinizing the investment needed to implement passive energy efficiency measures and calculating the payback period for each building type within various climate zones. Furthermore, the study will encompass an in-depth analysis of the optimal energy demand for different building types across diverse climate zones. This approach aims to offer a nuanced comprehension of the potential benefits and challenges related to the application of passive energy efficiency measures in the context of distinct building types and climatic conditions.

In the course of this research endeavor, the sophisticated software TRNSYS Studio played a crucial role in carrying out detailed simulations and energetic modeling. This powerful tool was intricately linked with TNBuild, a complementary software, which enabled the comprehensive modeling of both passive and active building components. Together, this integrated approach provided a robust framework for the thorough assessment of building performance in various scenarios.

In essence, this paper endeavors to evaluate the integration of the national thermal regulation within the residential sector of Morocco. This assessment encompasses an examination of energy consumption and its economic implications. This is achieved through the following key analyses:

Comparison of two construction scenarios:

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Conventional construction.

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Construction compliant with Moroccan thermal regulation conditions.

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Evaluation of both construction scenarios for three building architectural types:

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Villas.

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Apartments.

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Modern Moroccan houses.

A comparative analysis of the aforementioned scenarios will be undertaken using Moroccan climatic zoning.

By undertaking these comprehensive comparisons, the purpose of this study is to shed light on the effectiveness and significance of the national thermal regulation within the context of the residential sector in Morocco.

This study stands out for its dual approach, encompassing both existing buildings and those to be constructed by 2030, based on projected growth rates in the real estate sector. By considering both current buildings and future developments, this methodology offers a prospective and retrospective view of Moroccan energy efficiency in the residential sector. By including future buildings planned up to 2030, this study anticipates trends in real estate growth and aims to assess the impact of thermal regulations on these forthcoming constructions. This holistic approach allows for better comprehension of the challenges and opportunities linked to implementing energy efficiency actions on both existing and future buildings, thereby contributing to strategic planning and more sustainable energy policies for the country’s future.

Figure 5 presents all building models considered in this study. The apartment model represents a single floor within a large building, typically averaging around 10 floors, offering medium-standard amenities. The modern Moroccan house model illustrates an R+2 structure with relatively modest comfort conditions. Conversely, the villa model epitomizes luxurious living, boasting high-standard amenities. Despite the presence of various other building types in Morocco, the study centers on these three models due to their predominant representation in terms of numerical distribution.

2.2. Technical Data and Hypothesis

Building Envelops and Characteristics

Hour-by-hour simulations were performed for three different types of buildings, which present the dominant typology in the residential atmosphere in Morocco: villas, middle-class apartments, and modern Moroccan houses with areas of 200 m², 89 m², and 150 m², respectively.

Two scenarios of construction were evaluated. The first one adopts a conventional envelope design

Table 3. Conventional construction.

Wall	Building Envelope	Thickness	Thermal Conductivity	Thermal Capacity	Density
		cm	w/mK	kJ/kg K	m3/kg
Ground Floor (Vertical)	Concrete bricks	20	1.15	1	1800
	Cement coating	2	4.14	1	1700
	Wall painting	1	4.32	1	2000
Other Floors (Vertical)	9-holes bricks	20	6.516	0.878	1800
	Cement coating	2	4.14	1	1700
	Wall painting	1	4.32	1	2000
Internal Ceiling	Ceramic	10	4	1	1500
	Conventional concrete	20	4.24	1	1800
External Ceiling	Ceramic	10	4	1	1500
	Bitumen	1	0.828	1	2000
	Conventional concrete	20	4.24	1	1800
Floor	Soft stones	20	4.32	1	2000
	Tiles	1	1.75	0.70	2300
	Solid slab (concrete)	20	9	1	2000

and the second is based on the recommendations highlighted by the MTR

Table 4. Construction under Moroccan thermal regulation conditions.

Wall	Building Envelope	Thickness	Thermal Conductivity	Thermal Capacity	Density
		cm	KJ/hmk	kJ/kg K	m3/kg
Vertical	9-hole bricks	20	6.516	0.878	1800
	Air gape	20	0.6012	1.001	1.2
	3-hole bricks	5	4.22	0.79	1700
	Cement coating	2	4.14	1	1700
	Wall painting	1	4.32	1	2000
Internal Ceiling	Ceramic	10	4	1	1500
	Rockwool	6.5	4.68	0.92	300
	Conventional concrete	20	4.24	1	1800
External Ceiling	Ceramic	10	4	1	1500
	Rockwool	6.5	4.68	0.92	300
	Bitumen	1	0.828	1	2000
	Conventional concrete	20	4.24	1	1800
Floor	Soft stones	20	4.32	1	2000
	Cork plate	10	0.14	0.48	120
	Solid slab (concrete)	20	9	1	2000

. Table 2 and Table 3 show the construction details adopted for the two scenarios studied.

The wall construction, heat transfer coefficient of the wall, and glazing (U), which all vary according to the climatic zone, were applied to each of the three investigated examples. For information, the optimal glazing ratio depends on the glass heat transfer coefficient, climate zone, and building orientation. Hence, glazing was optimized by default, using TRNSYS, given the previous factors and applied to the buildings, each with a different optimum glazing ratio.

The convective factor of walls was also defined for different wall positions and types in order to reach an optimal design with reduced energy consumption (

Table 5. Convective heat transfer coefficient for different types of walls.

WALL	he (W/m2 °C)	hi (W/m2 °C)
External vertical	60.12	32.4
Internal vertical	32.4	32.4
Ground floor	21.24	21.24
Internal ceiling	72	72
External ceiling	72	39.96

).

2.3. Simulations Parameters and Consideration

The TRNSYS software played a pivotal role in assessing the building’s comfort performance and annual energy consumption patterns. It provided a versatile platform for developing detailed models covering the building’s envelope, HVAC systems, and various thermal influences. These factors included occupant presence, lighting systems, and electrical appliances. The software also allowed for precise specification of occupant schedules, enabling the creation of tailored occupancy scenarios. This meticulous approach enhanced the accuracy and realism of the simulation, resulting in a more precise evaluation of the building’s energy performance.

2.4. Mathematical Models

2.4.1. Thermal Model

The Type 56 construction model is non-geometric in scale and based on the thermal zoning technique, with one air node for each zone. The capabilities closely associated with each air node are represented in the construction model (furniture, for example) [33]. There is a separate item for the capacity of the node in addition to the area’s volume. There are two balanced equations that could be used to describe the thermal model buildings:

The Energy Balance Equation is used to set thermal zone conditions and predict the zones’ temperatures, taking into account the sensible gains coming from equipment, lights, and people.

$${\displaystyle \frac{dT}{dt}}={\displaystyle \frac{UA}{Cap}}\left(T_{amb}-T\right)+{\displaystyle \frac{{\dot{m}}_{vent}{Cp}_{air}}{Cap}}\left(T_{vent}-T\right)+{\displaystyle \frac{{\dot{m}}_{inf}{Cp}_{air}}{Cap}}\left(T_{inf}-T\right)+\sum Q_{gains}$$

(1)

• dT/dt: Rate of change in air temperature over time.
• T_amb: Ambient temperature.
• T: Temperature inside building.
• U: Wall surface transmission coefficient.
• A: Total area of the walls.
• Cp_air: Specific heat capacity of air.
• Q_gains: Sum of internal and external heat gains, such as solar gains, electrical appliances, etc.
• Cap: Thermal capacity of the material or mass being heated.
• ${\dot{m}}_{vent}$: Mass flow rate of air entering the building.
• ${\dot{m}}_{infMass}$: flow rate of air infiltrating the building.
• T_vent: Temperature of the air entering the building.
• T_inf: Temperature of the air infiltrating the building.

$${\displaystyle \frac{d\omega }{dt}}={\displaystyle \frac{{\dot{m}}_{inf}}{\rho V}}\left({\omega }_{inf}-\omega \right)+{\displaystyle \frac{m_{vent}}{\rho V}}\left({\omega }_{vent}-\omega \right)+{\displaystyle \frac{\sum {\omega }_{gains}}{\rho V}}$$

(2)

• ${\displaystyle \frac{d\omega }{dt}}$: Rate of change in humidity over time within the space.
• ${\dot{m}}_{inf}$: Mass flow rate of air infiltrating the building.
• ρ: Density of air.
• V: Volume of the building.
• $\omega$: Humidity ratio inside the building.
• ${\omega }_{inf}$: Humidity ratio of the air infiltrating the building.
• $m_{vent}$: Mass flow rate of air entering the building.
• ${\omega }_{vent}$: Humidity ratio of the air entering the building.
• $\sum {\omega }_{gains}$: Sum of humidity ratio gains, including internal and external sources.

2.4.2. Economic Data and Hypothesis

The assessment of final energy demand was conducted by aligning with established energy equivalence standards

Table 6. Average yield and equivalent Toe for economic analysis.

Year	1912	2020	2030
Average yield (%)	38	40	42
Equivalent of GWh (teq)	220	212	205

, as prescribed by both the International Energy Agency and the Department of Energy and Mines. This comprehensive approach ensures consistency and accuracy in evaluating energy demands across various sources. Specifically, the demand for final electricity was appraised based on an equivalence to consumption, where 1 GWh was considered equivalent to 86 tons of oil equivalent (Toe) [34].

It is worth emphasizing that in the distribution of demand for petroleum products, coal, and natural gas, a nominal allowance of approximately 2% was incorporated to account for industrial losses. This consideration ensures a realistic representation of energy demands in these sectors.

Energy savings were computed using TRNSYS simulation results, applying IEA-based conversion factors:

1 GWh = 860 toe; Primary energy = Electric energy × conversion factor (e.g., 0.86).

(3)

Energy Savings (MWh/year) × Average Tariff (MAD/kWh)

(4)

The average residential electricity tariff used was 1.18 MAD/kWh based on ONEE 2022 rates.

2.4.3. Electric Energy Avoided

This metric highlights the positive impact of TR on reducing the need for additional electricity production [35].

Electric Energy Avoided = Electric Consumption of Conventional Building − Electric Consumption for Building applying TR

(5)

2.4.4. Payback Time

It quantifies the relationship between TR application costs and subsequent annual gains, aiding in informed decision-making about resource allocation and investment strategies [36].

$$Payback Period={\displaystyle \frac{Investment (TR Application)}{Annual Savings}}$$

(6)

3. Results and Discussion

This study involved simulations across six distinct climates and three diverse building types to thoroughly evaluate the structures’ energy usage and performance. The analysis encompasses the evaluation of thermal regulation’s influence on both existing and new constructions, aiming to gauge the collective advantages stemming from government-led building energy efficiency initiatives. Monetary assessments of these gains are factored in for the widespread implementation of thermal regulation in existing and new buildings over the ensuing decade. The evaluation focuses on four key outcome categories to gauge program effectiveness, taking into account three primary benefits.

3.1. National Energy Assessment

3.1.1. Cooling and Heating Demand

The assessment of the viability and effectiveness of thermal regulation programs hinges on the realized savings measured through both energy and economic criteria. Notably, energy savings represent a projection of the optimized system consumption within defined constraints. Therefore, a robust thermal control framework for the residential sector should demonstrate a marked reduction in energy system consumption, primarily in cooling and heating, when compared to conventional building models.

Figure 7 visually presents the annual consumption of cooling and heating systems across six different climatic conditions for three distinct building types. In this figure, “CC” designates conventional construction, while “TR” signifies construction adhering to thermal regulations. This illustration offers a clear comparison of energy consumption patterns, highlighting the potential advantages brought about by the implementation of thermal regulation in different climatic contexts and building categories.

The results reveal substantial variations in annual cooling and heating consumption across different climate zones and building types in Morocco. In the warm Marrakech climate zone, a villa’s maximum annual cooling consumption reaches 21,000 kWh/year, while in the cooler Ifrane climate area, an apartment’s maximum annual cooling consumption is significantly lower at 2225 kWh/year. Conversely, heating requirements range from a minimum of 1068 kWh/year for an apartment in the first zone to a maximum of 32,000 kWh/year for a villa in the fourth zone (Ifrane).

Upon closer examination, it becomes evident that heating consumption outweighs cooling consumption when considering the national context, primarily due to the prevailing climate conditions in most parts of the country, except for regions like Agadir and Marrakech, which experience warmer climates.

Moreover, a comparison among the three distinct building types highlights noteworthy disparities. Villas exhibit significantly higher energy demands for both heating and cooling, primarily attributed to their larger size and the heightened comfort requirements they entail. Villas tend to represent the epitome of comfort, offering superior coziness conditions.

Notably, the analysis of consumption patterns in conventional and thermal regulation (TR) conditions demonstrates substantial savings potential through the implementation of the regulatory program. This emphasizes the efficacy of adopting thermal regulations in promoting energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption, thus aligning with sustainability goals in the residential sector.

Figure 8 illustrates the annual energy savings in system demand, showcasing the extremes observed for heating in Zone 4 (Ifrane) and Zone 1 (Agadir). Notably, Ifrane represents the region with the coldest climate, resulting in the highest demand for heating. This aligns with previous findings, underscoring that the integration of thermal efficiency factors and requirements yields the most substantial gains in scenarios with heightened consumption and potential losses. The counterintuitive outcome observed in Agadir serves as a contrasting case.

This discernment accentuates that the efficacy of thermal regulation exhibits an upward trend in effectiveness as we transition towards colder climates and encounter larger energy demands. The subsequent figure employs “C” to denote cooling and “H” to signify heating. This visual representation serves to enhance the clarity and comprehension of the depicted results.

3.1.2. Total Energy Demand

Figure 9 and Figure 10 offer a comprehensive portrayal of the annual energy dynamics as a result of thermal regulation techniques being implemented in existing buildings across Morocco. In Zone 1, specifically in Agadir, the conventional model showcases a substantial energy demand, with 13,200 GWh allocated towards cooling and 3200 GWh towards heating annually. This marked high consumption can be attributed to the dense concentration of residences in this region compared to the other zones.

The elevated energy consumption in Agadir may be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the local climate in Agadir, which typically experiences high temperatures for a significant portion of the year, necessitates increased cooling efforts. Additionally, factors such as building design, insulation standards, and occupant behavior could contribute to the higher energy requirements for both cooling and heating.

Moving to the second range, in the third zone encompassing Fes, the primary scenario reveals an annual total consumption of 21,400 GWh. This significant demand could be attributed to several factors, including the climate of the region, the architectural characteristics of buildings, and the prevailing lifestyle patterns of the occupants.

In Fes, the climate may play an important role in driving higher energy consumption. This zone experiences colder winters compared to Agadir, necessitating a greater demand for heating. Moreover, the specific building stock and construction practices in Fes might result in higher heat loss, further contributing to the elevated energy requirements.

It is noteworthy that these findings underscore the imperative of tailored energy efficiency strategies that take into account local climate conditions and building characteristics. This in-depth analysis provides critical insights for policymakers and urban planners to design targeted interventions aimed at optimizing energy consumption in existing buildings, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable and resilient built environment in Morocco.

Thermal regulation measures are particularly effective in Zone 3 (Fes), where high population density coincides with a demanding climate. This region experiences both hot summers and cold winters, increasing the need for energy-efficient solutions. In this zone, the thermal regulation scenario results in a substantial annual gain of 14,400 MWh.

Meanwhile, the first zone also exhibits a considerable total gain, primarily attributed to the efficiency improvements in cooling systems. This component stands out as the most energy-intensive aspect within this zone, primarily due to the pronounced demand for air-conditioning driven by the region’s consistently high temperatures and climatic conditions. The enhancement of cooling systems underscores the importance of targeted interventions to address specific climate-driven energy demands, ultimately contributing to an improved built environment resilience and sustainability.

In contrast, the gains observed in the remaining zones are comparatively lower, falling within the range of 1700 MWh to 3200 MWh per annum. These more modest increases can be attributed to the prevailing warm climates in these regions, as well as the lower population density and housing concentration on the national scale.

In essence, the implementation of thermal regulation measures in existing buildings can lead to gains ranging from 39% to 68%, contingent upon the specific climatic conditions and geographical locations across Morocco. These variations are graphically illustrated in Figure 11, highlighting the critical influence of climate and geography on the potential benefits of such regulatory interventions. This insight underscores the importance of tailoring strategies to suit the unique energy demands and conditions of each distinct region within the country.

The cumulative national gains resulting from these efforts are distributed across six distinct climatic zones, with the coldest and warmest regions contributing a substantial portion, as depicted in Figure 12. This distribution underscores the significant role of climate in shaping the overall impact of thermal regulation initiatives on energy efficiency and sustainability at a national scale.

3.1.3. Final Energy Savings

Indeed, the calculation of ultimate energy savings necessitates a multifaceted approach, taking into account various crucial factors. These include the distinctive energy consumption patterns within each zone, influenced by prevalent climatic conditions and the dominant mode of operation (heating or cooling) in different areas. These dynamics are further influenced by the ever-changing climate patterns. Additionally, the efficiency and performance of the equipment involved play a primary role in determining the final energy savings achieved through thermal regulation initiatives. This comprehensive consideration of these interdependent factors is imperative for accurate assessment and optimization of energy conservation measures.

The integration of thermal regulation measures leads to final energy savings for consumers, with values ranging from approximately 32,900 kWh to 7200 GWh in Zone 1 and Zone 2. In Zone 1, this interval represents the maximum and minimum annual savings, whereas in Zone 2, these values are about 3900 kWh and 710 GWh for the maximum and minimum, respectively. Interestingly, when we expand our perspective to a broader territorial and national scale, these maximum and minimum intervals exhibit an inverse trend.

In the territorial projection, the maximum value is observed in the third zone, while the minimum value is in Zone 5. These disparities stem from the interplay of specific climate conditions and the concentration of housing within each zone. The macro and national perspectives, as illustrated in Figure 13 and Figure 14, emphasize the significance of considering regional and climatic nuances in assessing the potential energy savings, underscoring the need for tailored approaches to thermal regulation initiatives at various scales.

3.1.4. Primary Energy Savings

Undoubtedly, the climatic characteristics of a region stand as the most influential factor in any thermal analysis of buildings. Figure 15 provides an overview of the primary energy savings, which are most pronounced for the modern Moroccan residential archetype. This is attributed to the prevalence of this particular building type, constituting 63% of all building structures in Morocco [37]. Apartments represent the second-largest category, making up 25% of the total, with an average national savings of 3.86 GWh per apartment. Lastly, villas in Zone 3 demonstrate the highest total savings, contributing an annual national value of 756 GWh.

These findings affirm what was previously established and inferred: that configurations emphasizing luxury and comfort tend to limit maximum energy savings, while adhering to standard and fundamental specifications leads to optimal savings. In a broader sense, it is worth noting that a lower prevalence of luxury-oriented structures corresponds to lower national gains.

Furthermore, Zone 1 (Agadir) and Zone 3 (Fes) consistently secure top positions in terms of savings and economic benefits. This reiterates the robustness of earlier conclusions and underscores the pivotal role of local climate and building typology in shaping energy-saving outcomes.

3.1.5. Electrical Energy Avoided

The implementation of thermal regulation (TR) measures brings about a notable optimization in the overall power installed by energy systems. This optimization results in substantial cost savings in power consumption. To delve deeper into the specifics, let us examine the average power usage reductions across different building types shown in Figure 16:

-

Villas: The TR measures lead to an average reduction of 5000 Wh in power consumption for villas. This reduction signifies a substantial decrease in the power requirements for heating and cooling systems in these larger residential structures.

-

MMHs (modern Moroccan homes): For MMHs, the average power reduction amounts to 3800 Wh. This demonstrates a significant decrease in the energy demand for climate control systems in this prevalent building type, which constitutes 63% of all building structures in Morocco.

-

Apartments: The TR measures result in an average power reduction of 2200 Wh for apartments. This signifies notable energy savings in these more compact and commonly found housing units.

These power reductions translate into tangible economic gains. For instance, in terms of avoided energy system costs, buildings can save anywhere from 4800 DH to 17,800 DH per building, depending on the specific power capacity needs. This is a significant financial benefit, illustrating the practical implications and economic viability of implementing thermal regulation measures.

From a scientific standpoint, these findings underscore the substantial impact that targeted thermal regulation can have on optimizing energy consumption in diverse building types. It highlights the potential for not only reducing power demands but also realizing considerable economic savings for building owners and occupants. This aligns with broader sustainability goals by promoting energy efficiency and reducing environmental impact. Additionally, these results emphasize the importance of tailoring energy-saving strategies to the specific characteristics of different building types, acknowledging that a one-size-fits-all approach may not be as effective.

Indeed, these findings underscore the critical significance of advancing the energy systems market, particularly focusing on heaters and air-conditioners. This initiative is crucial for fostering a robust and high-quality market, enhancing overall conditions, and ensuring the availability of efficient equipment. These efforts collectively pave the way for a successful and impactful building energy efficiency program.

By promoting the development and accessibility of advanced heating and cooling technologies, policymakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers alike can contribute to a more sustainable built environment. This not only bolsters economic opportunities within the energy systems sector but also translates into tangible benefits for building occupants and the environment.

Moreover, investing in high-performance equipment not only aligns with energy efficiency goals but also encourages innovation and technological advancements. This, in turn, can lead to a positive feedback loop where more efficient equipment becomes more widely available and affordable.

Ultimately, a well-structured and thriving energy systems market is a cornerstone for realizing substantial gains in building energy efficiency, reducing overall energy consumption, and mitigating environmental impacts. This holistic approach addresses both economic and environmental imperatives, paving the way for a more sustainable future.

3.2. Energy Bill Saving

The total energy savings discussed earlier pertain to the collective economic benefits realized by end-consumers through reduced expenses on cooling and heating systems. Figure 17 provides a visual representation of the annual economic savings categorized by climatic zones, further segmented by three distinct building types. This analysis encapsulates the composite of various energy outcome combinations. Notably, MMHs yield the most substantial energy bill savings.

Furthermore, the total annual gains are projected to amount to MAD 10,400 on a national scale. Zone 3 contributes MAD 4680, while Zone 1 contributes MAD 2900—these two zones emerge as the most influential in terms of energy bill savings. Additionally, when we consider individual building types, villas, apartments, and MMHs are anticipated to yield average annual profits of MAD 3600, MAD 2500, and MAD 1600, respectively.

The results encapsulate the substantial economic advantages that can be accrued through effective implementation of thermal regulation measures. Beyond cost savings for end-consumers, these results also signify a positive economic ripple effect, potentially stimulating economic activity in the energy sector and related industries. Additionally, these findings highlight the potential for targeted interventions in specific climatic zones and building types to yield particularly impactful results in terms of energy efficiency and cost savings.

3.3. Additional Costs

The implementation of the thermal regulation model entails several additional expenses stemming from the particular technical specifications of the building envelope, choice of building materials, and insulation and glazing standards. These factors, coupled with considerations related to luxury amenities and prevailing climate conditions, contribute to a range of diverse additional costs. Figure 18 illustrates the various supplementary investments incurred as a result of the thermal regulation requirements.

For flats, these additional costs vary, ranging from MAD 4360 to MAD 15,575. Villas, due to their larger size and potentially higher luxury standards, necessitate additional investments ranging from MAD 20,000 to MAD 63,000. In zones characterized by more extreme climate conditions, such as the third and fourth zones, MMHs may require investments of up to MAD 7500. These higher costs can be attributed to the need for specific interventions that demand more rigorous technical standards and requirements, particularly in zones where adverse weather conditions necessitate more robust thermal regulation measures.

These insights highlight the nuanced economic considerations that accompany the implementation of thermal regulation initiatives. While the initial investments are higher, they are offset by long-term energy cost savings, demonstrating the importance of a comprehensive economic analysis in the planning and execution of such projects. Additionally, this underscores the need for tailored strategies that account for the unique characteristics and conditions of each specific region and building type.

Furthermore, the preceding findings can be expressed as a percentage of the additional investment required, contingent on the building type and geographical location (zone). This is depicted in Figure 19, revealing an average of 3.5% of the initial investment. This percentage ranges from 7.9% for villas in Zone 3, where the additional expenses are highest due to the specific climate conditions and potentially higher luxury standards, to 0.9% for apartments in the Tangier zone (Zone 2), where the additional investment requirements are comparatively lower. This analysis offers a clear breakdown of the relative cost implications associated with implementing thermal regulation measures across different building types and geographic zones.

These percentages highlight that the additional costs are relatively more manageable along the seaside areas (Zone 1 and Zone 2) compared to other regions. This is particularly significant for villas and MMHs, where the investments can be substantial. This underscores the potential for governmental incentives and awareness campaigns to play a crucial role in achieving the program’s objectives. By providing support and education on the long-term benefits and environmental impacts of thermal regulation measures, the government can encourage widespread adoption and contribute to the broader goal of enhancing energy efficiency in the building sector. This targeted approach can make a significant difference in driving sustainable practices in construction and renovation projects.

3.4. Payback Time

Evaluating the feasibility and practicality of a project or program involves considering various indicators. Among these, one of the most critical for end-consumers is the economic efficiency metric, which provides essential insights for decision-making. At the forefront of these metrics is the payback period—a pivotal factor in determining the viability of an investment or project. The payback period represents the duration needed to not only recoup the initial costs of an investment but also to transition into a phase where savings begin to materialize. This parameter carries significant weight in the decision-making process, serving as a clear guide for stakeholders to assess whether undertaking a particular position or project is a financially sound endeavor. A shorter payback period implies a quicker onset of positive returns, often viewed as a favorable scenario for those making investment decisions. In essence, the payback period acts as a compass, guiding stakeholders towards economically efficient choices in their pursuit of successful projects or initiatives.

Figure 20 provides a comprehensive portrayal of how the payback period evolves in response to shifts in geographical locations and corresponding climatic conditions, as delineated by the six distinct climatic zones in Morocco. The results reveal an average payback period of approximately 6.5 years. This signifies that investments made in the thermal regulation program in Morocco present an appealing opportunity, underscored by a favorable profitability indicator. This underscores the effectiveness of the program in delivering tangible economic benefits.

This indicator is contingent on a combination of housing type and climate zone. As illustrated in Figure 16, the shortest payback periods are observed in Zone 1 and Zone 2. This outcome can be attributed to the synergistic effect of total additional investments and the resultant economic gains generated in these two zones, surpassing those in the other regions.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that the payback period exhibits variation across different housing categories. Specifically, apartments and MMHs emerge as the most financially accessible options. This is due to their lower additional costs, as calculated earlier, in comparison to the more luxurious housing examples examined in this study. This insight reinforces the importance of tailoring thermal regulation strategies to suit specific housing types and climate conditions, optimizing both economic returns and energy efficiency outcomes.

3.5. Previsions by 2030: The Efficient Future

The new housing sector plays a pivotal role in driving the adoption of thermal regulation measures. Notably, there’s a notable trend in regional zoning indicating an increasing percentage of new urban construction stock relative to construction authorizations. This proportion has been rising annually, ranging from 15% to 0.9%.

Furthermore, this growth is delineated based on the type of construction. Modern Moroccan homes constitute the majority at 74.4% of the total, followed by apartments at 12.6%, and villas at 4.45%. These data underscore the substantial influence of the new housing sector in shaping the implementation and effectiveness of thermal regulation initiatives, particularly in modern Moroccan home constructions. They also highlight the need for targeted strategies to address specific housing types and regions, ensuring a cohesive and sustainable approach to energy efficiency in the building sector.

Figure 21 provides a visual representation of the cumulative energy savings projected from 2011 to 2030. Concurrently, the new urban housing stock is anticipated to reach an estimated 3 million units. This surge is most pronounced in Zone 3, driven by the factors we discussed earlier, necessitating a total of 1300 GWh for cooling and 3700 GWh for heating.

Moreover, the total energy consumption of these new buildings is projected to reach approximately 9500 GWh in 2030, with the distribution occurring gradually from 2014 onwards, as depicted in Figure 22. These figures underscore the increasing demand for energy in the new housing sector and highlight the imperative of implementing robust thermal regulation measures to mitigate this growing energy consumption. This result also emphasizes the significance of proactive measures in ensuring sustainability and energy efficiency in the urban development landscape.

4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

The findings of this study unequivocally demonstrate the significant positive impact of implementing thermal regulation in Moroccan buildings. The substantial energy savings of 30 GWh annually for cooling and heating systems in existing homes translates into conserving 25.6 TWh of primary energy and 14,300 GW of electric power. Moreover, these energy savings result in a remarkable MAD 10,400 in total heating and cooling energy bill savings for the end-consumer. These benefits are distributed across the six climatic zones of Morocco, accounting for the diverse technical and architectural characteristics of villas, MMHs, and apartments. The manageable average payback period of 6.5 years reinforces the economic feasibility of these measures.

In comparison, Tunisia has similar zoning but lacks incentive enforcement. Spain uses mandatory audits and building passports to monitor energy compliance. Morocco can adopt some of these mechanisms for improved RTCM implementation.

From a political perspective, this study underscores the importance of scaling up the national thermal regulation program and making it applicable to all building types, whether they require heating and air-conditioning or not. Implementing these regulations not only enhances energy efficiency but also contributes to increased thermal comfort, positively impacting the quality of life for residents.

We recommended establishing a digital monitoring platform for compliance verification; introducing fiscal incentives for low-income households to retrofit existing buildings; and fostering dialogue between municipalities, developers, and citizens through pilot programs.

Strategically, it is imperative for government agencies and policymakers to promote the widespread adoption of thermal regulation measures. Encouraging the private sector and property owners to invest in these energy-efficient upgrades can significantly reduce energy consumption, lowering the carbon footprint. The reduction in CO₂ emissions estimated at 20 million metric tons over the next two decades, as reported by the Moroccan Agency for Energy Efficiency (AMEE), emphasizes the environmental sustainability aspect of these measures.

Economically, the creation of approximately 18,000 permanent jobs by 2030, as a direct outcome of thermal regulation implementation, underscores the potential for stimulating economic growth and development. These jobs span across various sectors, including construction, manufacturing, and maintenance services, further contributing to local economies.

The study highlights that the implementation of thermal regulation in Moroccan buildings is a win-win solution. It not only results in substantial energy and cost savings for consumers but also has significant environmental and economic benefits. This emphasizes the need for robust policy support, investment incentives, and awareness campaigns to ensure the widespread adoption of these measures, ultimately leading to a more sustainable and energy-efficient built environment in Morocco.

In conclusion, advancing energy efficiency in Morocco’s residential sector requires coordinated efforts across key stakeholders. The government should mandate the enforcement of RTCM in all future construction permits to ensure compliance and long-term impact. The industry is encouraged to invest in the development of affordable insulation materials and user-friendly simulation tools to facilitate widespread adoption. Meanwhile, academia should foster interdisciplinary research that bridges energy efficiency with social equity, ensuring inclusive and sustainable development.

This study used generalized occupancy and equipment profiles. Future research should incorporate real occupancy data and detailed lighting/daylighting models and perform empirical validation of simulation outputs using post-occupancy evaluation in RTCM-compliant homes, which is the greatest limitations that we are working on, by studying real data for regional planning.