Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data
2.1. California’s Drought of the Future
2.2. Hydroclimate Projections
2.3. Wildfire Projections
3. Methods
3.1. The Snow Seasonality Metric
- Seasonal snowpacks → ephemeral snowpacks: The transition from a seasonal snowpack to an ephemeral snowpack represents a notable change in the properties and role of the snowpack on the landscape. This transition indicates that on average, a 60-day period of continuous snowpack no longer occurs. Historically, many seasonal Pacific Southwest snowpacks can transition to ephemeral during dry (sunny and warm) and/or rainier-than-normal winter seasons [33].
- No change: SSM values remain the same between the two periods.
- Less seasonal snowpacks: Snowpacks that become less seasonal are expected to experience more days of ephemeral snow, but not enough to remove the 60 day continuous snowpack presence constraint (shifting them into the first category, seasonal snowpacks → ephemeral snowpacks). The most seasonal snowpack has an SSM equal to 1, indicating once snow begins falling for a winter season, it accumulates continuous before peaking and beginning its ablation back to snow-free conditions. As a result of ephemeral snow days before beginning the seasonal cycle of accumulation or following the melt-out of seasonal snow, the SSM will often be less than 1. The increasing fraction of fall or spring precipitation falling as rain instead of snow [45] and increasing dry day frequencies [46] are two ways during the shoulder seasons to create more ephemeral snowpacks as less snow accumulates and more opportunities for melt occurs.
- More seasonal snowpacks: For a seasonal snowpack to become more seasonal in a warmer and drier world, there must be a decline in the number of ephemeral snow days, driving the value produced by Equation (1) to approach 1, likely to occur only in high elevations where snow is not transitioning to rain during the core winter season. The loss of high elevation ephemeral snow days is likely the result of winter or spring drying (enhanced seasonality), an additional expectation of California climate change [47,48], as temperatures during precipitation more frequently remain cold enough to produce snow.
3.2. Other Projections
4. Results
4.1. Characteristics of the Mid-Century Dry Spell
4.2. Effect of the Mid-Century Dry Spell on Snow Seasonality
4.3. Wildfire Projections
4.4. Changes in Streamflow
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
ET | Evapotranspiration |
MCDS | Mid-Century Dry Spell |
LOCA | LOcally Constructed Analogs |
VIC | Variable Infiltration-Capacity Model |
CMIP5 | Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
SWE | Snow Water Equivalent |
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Hatchett, B.J.; Rhoades, A.M.; McEvoy, D.J. Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell. Hydrology 2022, 9, 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9090155
Hatchett BJ, Rhoades AM, McEvoy DJ. Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell. Hydrology. 2022; 9(9):155. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9090155
Chicago/Turabian StyleHatchett, Benjamin J., Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy. 2022. "Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell" Hydrology 9, no. 9: 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9090155