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Article

Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia

1
Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
2
Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
3
Field Development, INA-Industry of Oil Plc., Av. V. Holjevca 10, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Tommaso Caloiero, Carmelina Costanzo and Roberta Padulano
Hydrology 2021, 8(2), 83; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8020083
Received: 8 April 2021 / Revised: 5 May 2021 / Accepted: 12 May 2021 / Published: 19 May 2021
Floods are defined by maximum water levels or flow of high-water waves. Here, we defined the deterministic method for the calculation of the probability of a high discharge event, named as the Probability Of Success (POS). The POS method previously developed for petroleum subsurface systems has been modified for the surface hydrological system with the purpose of flood prediction. The case study of this research is the small basin of Kašina Stream on Medvednica Mt. (NW Croatia). The data are obtained upstream from the hydrological station Gornja Kašina. The POS model is defined by four categories. Each geological category is described with accompanied events and probabilities. Floods are defined by four categories: total precipitation, total water flow, basement, and maximal water capacity in soil. The categories total precipitation and basement were divided into two sub-categories each: quantity and duration; porosity and soil depth. Data are collected for a hydrometeorological event, namely an intensive convective storm on 24–25 July 2020, when Zagreb was locally hit by heavy urban floods. The presented probability method yielded a probability of 1.76% that such an event could happen to the station. However, the flooding was not recorded. A comparison of the real event and the predicted probability supported the adequacy and applicability of the method, showing it has high reliability. The presented probability model could be easily applied, with small modifications, to the entire area of Northern Croatia for the prediction of small basin flooding events. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood; geological categories; probability; Medvednica Mt.; Croatia flood; geological categories; probability; Medvednica Mt.; Croatia
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MDPI and ACS Style

Sudar, V.; Malvić, T.; Vujnović, T.; Ivšinović, J. Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia. Hydrology 2021, 8, 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8020083

AMA Style

Sudar V, Malvić T, Vujnović T, Ivšinović J. Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia. Hydrology. 2021; 8(2):83. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8020083

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sudar, Vedran, Tomislav Malvić, Tatjana Vujnović, and Josip Ivšinović. 2021. "Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia" Hydrology 8, no. 2: 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8020083

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