Hydrological hazard estimation for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, Morelos, Mexico
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Statistical Analysis
- = Blocks of size w = 60 and w = 30
- = Total sample size
- = /S
- S = Standard deviation of total sample size
- j = Sampled data.
- k = Delay time.
- = Number of data.
- = Sample mean of j.
- n = Sample size.
- m = Registration order number considering a determined return period.
- includes the events ordered from the highest to the lowest values with an assigned Rp of and a probability of non-exceedance given by [47]:
- = Length in years of the analyzed record.
- M = Registration order number.
- = Events estimated with a certain probability distribution for Rp assigned to the ordered sample .
- Mp = Number of parameters of the adjusted distribution.
3.2. Hydraulic Flow Model for the Yautepec River Sub-Basin
4. Results
4.1. Statistical Analysis
- v = (w = 60 + w = 30) − 2
- α = 0.05
- = Student’s t-distribution quantiles
- v = Location
- β = Shape
- α = Scale > 0.
4.2. Hydraulic Modeling
- High: Flood height > 1 m. Expected losses in infrastructure and population. They are infrequent events.
- Moderate: Flood height > 50 cm and < 1 m. Moderate damage and some losses in infrastructure with low impact to local people. They are events of moderate frequency.
- Low: Flood height < 50 cm. Minimal impact to infrastructure and population. They are high frequency events.
- For Rp 50 years, 10% (1.5 km2) of the total community area will be flooded: Of this flooded area, 65% will be covered with a water level ≤ 50 cm; 15.5% between 0.50 cm and 1.0 m; and 19.5% > 1.0 m.
- For Rp 100 years, 12% (1.8 km2) of the total community area will be flooded: of this flooded area, 62% will have a water level ≤ 50 cm; 18.5% from 0.50 cm to 1.0 m and 19.5% > 1.0 m.
- For Rp 500 years, 13.5% (2.1 km2) of the total community area will be flooded: of this flooded area, 59% will reach a water level ≤ 50 cm; 18.4% between of 0.50 cm to 1.0 and 22.6% > 1.0 m.
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Distribution/Parameter | M | M-ML | M-L | ML | HP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Normal | 11.41 | 11.41 | |||
Log Normal with two parameters | 16.23 | ||||
Log Normal with three parameters | 7.95 | ||||
Exponential with parameter β | 16.91 | 55.53 | 44.72 | ||
Gamma with two parameters | 8.46 | 7.71 | 7.58 | ||
Gamma with three parameters | 7.83 | 7.72 | |||
Log Pearson typo III | 8.32 | ||||
Extreme Values I (Gumbel) | 8.56 | 7.52 | 7.29 | ||
General extreme values (GEV) | 7.02 |
River/ (m3/s) | Rp 50 years | Rp 100 years | Rp 500 years |
---|---|---|---|
Yautepec | 288 | 316 | 373 |
Apanquetzalco | 100.8 | 110.6 | 130.5 |
Oacalco | 115.2 | 126.4 | 149.2 |
Flood Level (m). | Hazard Level. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
H | > 1.00 | H | H | H |
M | 0.51–1.00 | H | M | L |
L | 0.0–0.50 | M | L | L |
Rp ≤ 50 | 50 < Rp ≤ 100 | 100 < Rp ≤ 500 | ||
H | M | L | ||
Frequency (years) |
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Zúñiga, E.; Novelo-Casanova, D.A. Hydrological hazard estimation for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, Morelos, Mexico. Hydrology 2019, 6, 77. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6030077
Zúñiga E, Novelo-Casanova DA. Hydrological hazard estimation for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, Morelos, Mexico. Hydrology. 2019; 6(3):77. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6030077
Chicago/Turabian StyleZúñiga, Emmanuel, and David A. Novelo-Casanova. 2019. "Hydrological hazard estimation for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, Morelos, Mexico" Hydrology 6, no. 3: 77. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6030077