Two sites were selected for the validation of the Boundary Water Level Method (BWLM). Both sites satisfy the previously defined minimum requirements for method implementation, including adequate reach length to ensure a measurable water surface slope, suitable channel geometry for one-dimensional hydraulic modeling, and the absence of significant lateral inflows or flow losses within the study reach. An additional requirement was the proximity of an official gauging station operated by the State Hydrometeorological Service in Croatia (DHMZ), allowing comparison of the calculated discharges with reference measurements. These conditions allow for a reliable application and evaluation of the proposed method.
3.1. Test Site 1: River Bednja
Test site 1 for the Boundary Water Level Method was located on the River Bednja, just downstream of gauging station Lepoglava (
Figure 4).
Two bridges located 360 m apart serve as convenient mounting points for the monitoring equipment. In addition to the two boundary cross-sections, three additional cross-sections were geodetically surveyed at an average spacing of 90 m.
Fixed points on both bridge railings were also geodetically surveyed. These points represent the reference elevations from which the sensor positions were determined. The sensors measure the distance from the transducer to the water surface. The water surface elevation in absolute terms is then calculated as the fixed-point elevation minus the vertical offset between the fixed point and the sensor, minus the measured distance to the water surface. Water surface elevations in absolute terms form the stage hydrographs, which represent the boundary conditions for the hydraulic model.
Boundary water levels were continuously measured over a four-day period to capture a small runoff event caused by rainfall in the catchment. The monitoring interval was set to 30 min, and the measured data were transmitted via the Internet to the designated web page. There, the data were stored as time-value pairs in the database. As noted previously, the measured values represent the distance from the sensor to the water surface.
The measured data were exported as a .csv file, after which the recorded values were converted into water surface elevations in absolute terms. Following this conversion, and with a timestamp assigned to each absolute water level value, the boundary condition files were generated.
The boundary conditions and five surveyed cross-sections formed the basis of the one-dimensional (1D) hydraulic model. The hydraulic model was set up using MIKE Hydro River modeling software (DHI, Realease 2017).
The test site on the River Bednja was classified as a clean, winding channel with some pools and shoals, as well as some weeds and stones. This classification suggests Manning’s roughness coefficient (
n) in a range from 0.035 to 0.050, with 0.045 being the normal
n value [
17].
Based on previous modeling experience, a Manning’s roughness coefficient of n = 0.040 was selected as the most representative value for test site 1. A uniform transversal roughness distribution was applied across the river cross-sections to simplify the model setup and allow a clearer evaluation of the influence of Manning’s roughness coefficient. Introducing multiple roughness zones would increase the number of parameters and make it difficult to isolate the effect of individual values on model results. Therefore, a single representative roughness coefficient was used, corresponding to the mean value reflecting both channel and bank characteristics.
The discharges obtained using the BWLM were compared with those recorded at the Lepoglava gauging station (
Figure 5), where water levels are continuously measured and converted to discharge using established rating curves. For the present monitoring period, discharges were calculated using the 2024 rating curve, the most recent one available.
The results indicate that the flood wave obtained using the BWLM and that recorded at the gauging station are qualitatively consistent. When using n = 0.040, the peak discharge is slightly underestimated by the BWLM. The gauging station recorded a peak discharge of 4.30 m3/s, whereas the BWLM simulation yielded 4.16 m3/s, representing an absolute error of 0.14 m3/s, or 4.1%.
In contrast, low discharges are slightly overestimated by the BWLM. The gauging station recorded a minimum discharge of 1.44 m3/s, while the BWLM simulation yielded 1.69 m3/s, corresponding to an absolute error of 0.25 m3/s, or 17.7%. This larger relative error at low discharges can be attributed to several factors. First, small absolute differences in discharge result in larger percentage errors when reference values are low. In addition, hydraulic conditions at low flows are more sensitive to uncertainties in water level measurements and channel roughness, which can significantly influence discharge estimates. Furthermore, minor variations in channel geometry and flow resistance, which are less pronounced at higher flows, may have a greater relative impact under low-flow conditions.
Overall, during the four-day monitoring period and assuming n = 0.040, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the BWLM-estimated discharges and those recorded at the gauging station was 6.7%.
Three additional hydraulic simulations were conducted using different
n values within the proposed range of 0.035–0.050 (
Figure 6), and the sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of hydraulic roughness on discharge calculation. While channel geometry and boundary water levels were determined from field measurements, Manning’s roughness coefficient has to be estimated. The hydraulic model was run, varying only the roughness coefficient while keeping all other parameters constant. The resulting discharges were compared in terms of mean, peak, and low-flow values to assess the sensitivity of the method to uncertainty in hydraulic roughness.
Sensitivity analysis (SA) was conducted using multiple performance indicators to evaluate the sensitivity of BWLM discharge estimates to variations in Manning’s roughness coefficient (
n). The root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used to assess the agreement between simulated and observed discharge time series in terms of overall model performance and absolute deviations. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to quantify the average relative deviation between simulated and observed discharges, while percent bias (PBIAS) was used to evaluate the tendency of the model to systematically overestimate or underestimate discharge. Finally, percentage errors for minimum and maximum discharge (
Qmax and
Qmin) were used to assess the influence of roughness on low-flow and peak-flow conditions of the modeled event (
Table 1).
The sensitivity analysis indicates a clear dependence of the calculated discharges on Manning’s roughness coefficient. The best agreement with the measured discharges was obtained for n = 0.040, which yielded the lowest RMSE (0.18 m3/s) and the highest NSE (0.96), indicating very good overall model performance. This is further supported by the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 6.7%) and a near-zero percent bias (PBIAS = 1.2%).
Lower roughness (n = 0.035) resulted in systematic overestimation of discharge (PBIAS = 8.6%), while higher roughness values (n ≥ 0.045) led to increasing underestimation, with PBIAS reaching −19.3% for n = 0.050. This trend is also reflected in the NSE and RMSE values, which show a progressive deterioration in model performance as the roughness coefficient deviates from the optimal value.
Peak discharge errors follow a similar pattern, shifting from slight overestimation at lower roughness values to increasing underestimation as roughness increases. In contrast, the largest deviations were observed for low flows, where errors ranged from 26.9% to −3.7%. This indicates that the model results are more sensitive to Manning’s roughness coefficient under low-flow conditions than during peak discharge.
To further examine the distributional agreement between simulated and observed discharges, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) were also analyzed (
Figure 7).
The empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of observed and simulated discharge indicate a clear sensitivity of model performance to the Manning’s roughness coefficient. Among the tested scenarios, n = 0.040 shows the best overall agreement with the observed distribution, closely reproducing the cumulative behaviour across the monitored range of discharges. In contrast, n = 0.035 results in a systematic overestimation of discharge values, shifting the CDF toward higher flows, while n = 0.045 and n = 0.050 progressively underestimate discharge and compress the upper tail of the distribution. The observed differences are most pronounced in the low- and high-flow regions, highlighting the importance of appropriate roughness calibration for accurate reproduction of both frequent low-flow conditions and less frequent higher-flow events. Overall, the CDF analysis confirms n = 0.040 as the optimal parameter for the studied reach.
3.2. Test Site 2: River Krapina
Test site 2 for the Boundary Water Level Method was located on the River Krapina upstream of the gauging station Bračak (
Figure 8).
Again, two bridges situated 1080 m apart were used as convenient mounting points for the monitoring equipment. In addition to the boundary cross-sections at the bridges, two more cross-sections were geodetically surveyed at an average spacing of 360 m.
This time, over a period of seven days, boundary water levels were continuously recorded to capture a minor runoff event triggered by rainfall in the catchment. Readings were taken every 30 min.
The River Krapina test site was characterized as a clean, straight channel with some pools and shoals. Based on this channel type, Manning’s roughness coefficient
n is estimated to range from 0.030 to 0.040, with a representative value of 0.035 [
17].
Drawing on prior modeling experience, Manning’s roughness coefficient of
n = 0.030 was chosen as the most representative value for test site 2, again implementing a uniform transversal roughness distribution across the river cross-section. Discharges estimated by the BWLM were compared with measurements from the Bračak gauging station (
Figure 9), where water levels are continuously monitored and converted to discharge using the most recent available rating curve, which dates from 2024.
The results for the test site 2 also show that the flood wave simulated by the BWLM is qualitatively consistent with that observed at the gauging station. Using n = 0.030, the BWLM underestimates the peak discharge, while overestimating low discharges. The gauging station Bračak measured a peak of 8.26 m3/s, the BWLM simulation produced 8.04 m3/s, resulting in an absolute error of 0.22 m3/s, or 2.6%.
The lowest discharge measured by the gauging station was 4.02 m3/s, and the corresponding discharge by the BWLM was 4.55 m3/s, which translates into an absolute error of 0.53 m3/s, or 13.2%.
Similar to the first test site results, the relative error is more pronounced under low-flow conditions. Again, this can be partly explained by the fact that smaller reference discharge values lead to larger percentage errors for comparable absolute deviations. In addition, the method is more sensitive at low flows, where uncertainties in water level measurements and roughness estimation have a greater influence on the calculated discharge. In contrast, higher flows are less affected by such uncertainties, resulting in better agreement between simulated and observed peak values.
Overall, during the seven-day monitoring period and assuming n = 0.030, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the BWLM-estimated discharges and those recorded at the gauging station was 9.3%.
Two additional hydraulic simulations were carried out using different
n values within the proposed range of 0.030–0.040 in order to perform a sensitivity analysis and evaluate the effect of hydraulic roughness on discharge estimation (
Figure 10). The model was therefore executed by varying only the roughness coefficient, while all other parameters were kept constant. The resulting discharges were evaluated in terms of mean, peak, and low-flow values to quantify the sensitivity of the method to uncertainty in hydraulic roughness.
Sensitivity analysis (SA) was conducted using the same six performance indicators (RMSE, NSE, MAPE, PBIAS,
Qmax error and
Qmin error) to evaluate the sensitivity of BWLM discharge estimates to variations in Manning’s roughness coefficient (
Table 2).
The sensitivity analysis for test site 2 also indicates a clear influence of Manning’s roughness coefficient on the calculated discharges. The best overall agreement with the measured discharges was obtained for n = 0.030, which yielded the lowest RMSE (0.54 m3/s) and the highest NSE (0.85), indicating good agreement between simulated and observed discharge time series. This configuration also resulted in a near-zero bias (PBIAS = 0.4%) and a relatively small peak discharge error (−2.6%), although the low-flow error remained moderate (13.2%).
A slightly lower MAPE was obtained for n = 0.035 (7.7%); however, this configuration showed reduced overall performance, with a lower NSE (0.74) and higher RMSE (0.72 m3/s), accompanied by a noticeable negative bias (PBIAS = −10.9%) and increased underestimation of peak discharge (−13.7%).
Further increasing the roughness coefficient to n = 0.040 led to a substantial deterioration in model performance, as reflected by a marked decrease in NSE (0.28) and a significant increase in RMSE (1.19 m3/s). This is consistent with the higher MAPE (15.4%) and strong negative bias (PBIAS = −20.1%), as well as pronounced underestimation of both peak discharge (−22.7%) and low flows (−9.5%).
In addition, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) were evaluated to assess the agreement between simulated and observed discharge distributions (
Figure 11).
The empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for test site 2 further confirm the sensitivity of the model to the selected Manning’s roughness coefficient. The results indicate that n = 0.030 provides the best overall agreement with the observed discharge distribution, particularly across the high to medium flow ranges. Although this configuration does not provide the closest match to the lowest discharge values, it more effectively captures the overall variability and extent of the observed distribution. In contrast, n = 0.035 and n = 0.040 progressively shift the simulated distributions toward lower discharge values, resulting in an underestimation of flow and a compression of the upper tail. Overall, the CDF analysis supports the selection of n = 0.030 as the most appropriate roughness coefficient for test site 2.