High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)

Timis, Elisabeta Cristina; Hangan, Horia; Cristea, Vasile Mircea; Mihaly, Norbert Botond; Hutchins, Michael George

doi:10.3390/hydrology12020020

Open AccessArticle

High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)

by

Elisabeta Cristina Timis

^1,*

,

Horia Hangan

¹,

Vasile Mircea Cristea

¹,

Norbert Botond Mihaly

^1,*

and

Michael George Hutchins

²

¹

Department of Chemical Engineering, Computer Aided Process Engineering Research Centre, “Babes-Bolyai” University, Cluj-Napoca, 11 Arany Janos, 400028 Cluj, Romania

²

UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, Oxford OX10 8BB, UK

^*

Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Hydrology 2025, 12(2), 20; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12020020

Submission received: 21 November 2024 / Revised: 14 January 2025 / Accepted: 15 January 2025 / Published: 21 January 2025

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrodynamics and Water Quality of Rivers and Lakes)

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Abstract

The forecasting of river flows and pollutant concentrations is essential in supporting mitigation measures for anthropogenic and climate change effects on rivers and their environment. This paper addresses two aspects receiving little attention in the literature: high-resolution (sub-daily) data-driven modeling and the prediction of phosphorus compounds. It presents a series of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to forecast flows and the concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total phosphorus (TP) under a wide range of conditions, including low flows and storm events (0.74 to 484 m³/s). Results show correct forecast along a stretch of the River Swale (UK) with an anticipation of up to 15 h, at resolutions of up to 3 h. The concentration prediction is improved compared to a previous application of an advection–dispersion model.

Keywords: pollutant transport forecast; hydrological model; artificial neural networks; river flow forecast; in-river phosphorus model; high-resolution model

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MDPI and ACS Style

Timis, E.C.; Hangan, H.; Cristea, V.M.; Mihaly, N.B.; Hutchins, M.G. High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK). Hydrology 2025, 12, 20. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12020020

AMA Style

Timis EC, Hangan H, Cristea VM, Mihaly NB, Hutchins MG. High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK). Hydrology. 2025; 12(2):20. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12020020

Chicago/Turabian Style

Timis, Elisabeta Cristina, Horia Hangan, Vasile Mircea Cristea, Norbert Botond Mihaly, and Michael George Hutchins. 2025. "High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)" Hydrology 12, no. 2: 20. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12020020

APA Style

Timis, E. C., Hangan, H., Cristea, V. M., Mihaly, N. B., & Hutchins, M. G. (2025). High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK). Hydrology, 12(2), 20. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12020020

Note that from the first issue of 2016, this journal uses article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

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High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)

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