Electric energy sources are the foundation for supporting for the industrialization and modernization; however, the processes of electricity generation increase CO2
emissions. This study integrates the Holt–Winters model in number cruncher statistical system (NCSS) to estimate the forecasting data and the undesirable model in data envelopment analysis (DEA) to calculate the efficiency of electricity production in 14 countries all over the world from past to future. The Holt–Winters model is utilized to estimate the future; then, the actual and forecasting data are applied into the undesirable model to compute the performance. From the principle of an undesirable model, the study determines the input and output factors as follows nonrenewable and renewable fuels (inputs), electricity generation (desirable output), and CO2
emissions (undesirable output). The empirical results exhibit efficient/inefficient terms over the period from 2011–2021 while converting these fuels into electricity energy and CO2
emissions. The efficiency reveals the environmental effect level from the electricity generation. The analysis scores recommend a direction for improving the inefficient terms via the principle of inputs and undesirable outputs excess and desirable outputs shortfalls in an undesirable model.
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