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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries

Department of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, Lange Gasse 20, 90403 Nürnberg, Germany
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Healthcare 2020, 8(2), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8020099
Received: 29 March 2020 / Revised: 7 April 2020 / Accepted: 7 April 2020 / Published: 15 April 2020
This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences. Afterwards, the established framework utilizes information about the leading country to predict the Coronavirus spread of the following nation. The presented methodology is applied to confirmed Coronavirus cases from 1 January 2020 to 28 March 2020. Our results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States. Finally, we predict a future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of our explosion scenario. View Full-Text
Keywords: Coronavirus; COVID-19; epidemiology; incidence; dynamic time warping; lead-lag effects; forecasting; control strategies; risk management Coronavirus; COVID-19; epidemiology; incidence; dynamic time warping; lead-lag effects; forecasting; control strategies; risk management
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Stübinger, J.; Schneider, L. Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries. Healthcare 2020, 8, 99.

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