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Article

Models for COVID-19 Daily Confirmed Cases in Different Countries

1
Higher Institute of Engineering, El-Shorouk Academy, El-Shorouk City, Cairo 11837, Egypt
2
Physics and Engineering Mathematics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11517, Egypt
3
Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Università di Catania, Viale Andrea Doria 6, 95125 Catania, Italy
4
RUDN University, 6 Miklukho, Maklay St, 117198 Moscow, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Simeon Reich
Mathematics 2021, 9(6), 659; https://doi.org/10.3390/math9060659
Received: 24 February 2021 / Revised: 11 March 2021 / Accepted: 14 March 2021 / Published: 19 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Nonlinear Equations: Theory, Methods, and Applications)
In this paper, daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different countries are modelled using different mathematical regression models. The curve fitting is used as a prediction tool for modeling both past and upcoming coronavirus waves. According to virus spreading and average annual temperatures, countries under study are classified into three main categories. First category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about two-year seasons (about 180 days) to complete a viral cycle. Second category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about one-year season (about 90 days) to complete the first viral cycle with higher virus spreading rate. These countries take stopping periods with low virus spreading rate. Third category, countries that take the highest virus spreading rate and the viral cycle complete without stopping periods. Finally, predictions of different upcoming scenarios are made and compared with actual current smoothed daily confirmed cases in these countries. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; Fourier fitting; curve fitting; optimization algorithm COVID-19; Fourier fitting; curve fitting; optimization algorithm
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ahmed, H.M.; Elbarkouky, R.A.; Omar, O.A.M.; Ragusa, M.A. Models for COVID-19 Daily Confirmed Cases in Different Countries. Mathematics 2021, 9, 659. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9060659

AMA Style

Ahmed HM, Elbarkouky RA, Omar OAM, Ragusa MA. Models for COVID-19 Daily Confirmed Cases in Different Countries. Mathematics. 2021; 9(6):659. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9060659

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ahmed, Hamdy M., Reda A. Elbarkouky, Othman A.M. Omar, and Maria A. Ragusa. 2021. "Models for COVID-19 Daily Confirmed Cases in Different Countries" Mathematics 9, no. 6: 659. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9060659

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