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Open AccessArticle

COVID-19 Spatial Diffusion: A Markovian Agent-Based Model

1
Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
2
Dipartimento Matematica e Fisica, Università degli Studi della Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, 81100 Caserta, Italy
3
Dipartimento di Informatica, Università degli Studi di Torino, 10149 Torino, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Tuan Phung-Duc
Mathematics 2021, 9(5), 485; https://doi.org/10.3390/math9050485
Received: 28 December 2020 / Revised: 19 February 2021 / Accepted: 20 February 2021 / Published: 26 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Queue and Stochastic Models for Operations Research)
We applied a flexible modeling technique capable of representing dynamics of large populations interacting in space and time, namely Markovian Agents, to study the evolution of COVID-19 in Italy. Our purpose was to show that this modeling approach, that is based on mean field analysis models, provides good performances in describing the diffusion of phenomena, like COVID-19. The paper describes the application of this modeling approach to the Italian scenario and results are validated against real data available about the Italian official documentation of the diffusion of COVID-19. The model of each agent is organized similarly to what largely established in literature in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) family of approaches. Results match the main events taken by the Italian government and their effects. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; spatial diffusion model; Markovian Agents COVID-19; spatial diffusion model; Markovian Agents
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MDPI and ACS Style

Gribaudo, M.; Iacono, M.; Manini, D. COVID-19 Spatial Diffusion: A Markovian Agent-Based Model. Mathematics 2021, 9, 485. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9050485

AMA Style

Gribaudo M, Iacono M, Manini D. COVID-19 Spatial Diffusion: A Markovian Agent-Based Model. Mathematics. 2021; 9(5):485. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9050485

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gribaudo, Marco; Iacono, Mauro; Manini, Daniele. 2021. "COVID-19 Spatial Diffusion: A Markovian Agent-Based Model" Mathematics 9, no. 5: 485. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9050485

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