Analytical Perspectives and Numerical Simulations of a Mathematical Model for Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Citrus Greening
Abstract
1. Introduction
- (i)
- We consider the works [18,27,28,29,30], where some mathematical models based on elementary functions are developed. For instance, in [27], some geometric relations are introduced for early recognition of infected trees; in [18,28], discrete models based on a binomial relation are introduced to fit the population trees; in [29], the populations are approximated by an exponential function; and, in [30], a recurrence relation for population trees is considered.
- (ii)
- Our focus lies in mathematical models based on systems of ordinary differential equations [31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52]. In those works, the authors apply the compartmental methodology, the approach in which tree and psyllid populations are grouped by epidemiological category (susceptible, recovered, asymptomatic, or other), and applying a mass balance establishes that the populations in each category satisfy an ordinary differential equation, which is coupled with the equations of the other categories as a consequence of the interaction of the populations of the different categories considered. The most notable and common characteristic is that the system unknowns are time-dependent continuous functions that model the populations of the different categories over time.
- (iii)
- Three kinds of models are obtained by the modification of the compartmental methodology to incorporate some biological properties. First, in the articles [14,53,54,55,56], the authors are focused on the application of a compartmental methodology by considering that the populations of some categories are approximated by time-dependent functions with delay, incorporating in the mathematical models some biological characteristics, such as incubation period, resulting in delay differential systems as the mathematical models. Second, the impulsive differential system models define another modification of ordinary differential systems originating in the compartmental methodology [57,58], in which the unknowns are time-dependent functions with discontinuities that model abrupt changes at specific times as a consequence of some characteristics, such as births or deaths due to fumigation.
2. Preliminaries and Mathematical Model Formulation
2.1. Reaction–Diffusion Equations and Related Mathematical Concepts
2.2. Mathematical Model Step 1: Model Assumptions
- (P0)
- Citrus plants infected with HLB do not recover. The total citrus population (C) is divided into three compartments: susceptible citrus (), consisting of healthy plants vulnerable to infection; latent citrus (), comprising plants that have been inoculated by vectors but in which the pathogen population is not yet sufficient to be acquired or transmitted; and diseased citrus (), representing plants in which the pathogen has reached a threshold level that allows acquisition by vectors. This distinction reflects the biological reality that plants may harbor the pathogen without immediately serving as a source of inoculum.
- (P1)
- The citrus population is subject to vital dynamics. Recruitment or planting is modeled by the function , while natural mortality associated with HLB is denoted by . This assumption reflects the agricultural practice of continuous planting and the impact of both natural senescence and disease pressure on orchard sustainability.
- (P2)
- Susceptible citrus plants enter the latent class when inoculated by infected vectors. The transmission force from vectors to citrus is modeled by the function , which represents the rate at which susceptible plants become infected per unit of time depending on the spatial location x. This captures the biological mechanism whereby pathogen inoculation occurs during vector feeding.
- (P3)
- Latent citrus plants progress to the diseased class at a rate once the pathogen population within the plant reaches a sufficient threshold for acquisition by vectors. This assumption reflects the biological delay between initial inoculation and the establishment of a pathogen load capable of sustaining transmission.
- (V0)
- The adult psyllid population is structured into three epidemiological states: unexposed vectors (), representing adult psyllids that have not yet acquired the pathogen; acquiring vectors (), consisting of psyllids that have fed on diseased citrus plants but in which the pathogen has not yet completed the acquisition process; and infective vectors (), representing psyllids that have successfully acquired the pathogen and are capable of transmitting it to healthy citrus plants. This classification reflects the biological distinction between acquisition and transmission phases in vector–pathogen interactions.
- (V1)
- The natural mortality rate of vectors is denoted by , while represents the mortality rate resulting from control strategies applied to the vector population. These parameters capture both the baseline lifespan of psyllids and the impact of management interventions.
- (V2)
- Acquisition occurs when unexposed vectors feed on diseased citrus plants. The force of acquisition from citrus to vector is modeled by the function , which depends on the spatial variable x and represents the rate at which psyllids acquire the pathogen during feeding.
- (V3)
- Vectors in the acquisition phase () progress to the infective state () at a rate once the pathogen has been successfully established within the insect. This transition reflects the biological delay between initial feeding and the ability to transmit the pathogen.
- (V4)
- Once psyllids reach the infective state, they remain capable of transmitting the pathogen for the remainder of their lifespan. This assumption is consistent with the biology of HLB transmission, where vectors do not lose infectivity once acquisition has occurred.
- (V5)
- The spatial spread of the disease is driven by vector diffusion, representing psyllid movement across space. Diffusion captures two complementary processes: long-distance dispersal of infective psyllids between orchards and short-distance movement within orchards from plant to plant. These two scales of movement jointly determine the spatial dynamics of HLB transmission.
- (V6)
- Throughout the period under consideration, we assume that the psyllid population does not emigrate from or immigrate into the study domain. This assumption isolates the dynamics within the spatial region of interest.
2.3. Mathematical Model Step 2: Mass Balance and Definition of the Model
2.4. Additional Comments on the Mathematical Model
3. Well-Posedness of the Proposed Mathematical Model
3.1. Hypotheses for Well-Posedness and Main Result
3.2. Semigroup Theory Framework and Results
3.3. Proof of Theorem 1
- Step 1:
- Truncated Cauchy problem and the existence of solutions.
- Step 2:
- Boundedness of the truncated solution problem.
- Step 3:
- Positiveness of truncated solution on .
- Step 4:
- Uniqueness of truncated solution on .
- Step 5:
- The local solution is extended to be a global one.
- Step 6:
4. Stability and Persistence Analysis
4.1. Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE)
4.2. Calculation of the Basic Reproduction Number
4.3. Local Stability of the DFE
- (a)
- If , the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.
- (b)
- If , the disease-free equilibrium is unstable.
4.4. Uniform Persistence
- (i)
- If , the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, meaning that the infectious populations vanish in the long run and the infection dies out.
- (ii)
- If , the disease-free equilibrium becomes unstable, and the system exhibits uniform persistence of the infection. In this case, the infectious populations remain bounded away from zero, ensuring the sustained presence of the disease across the spatial domain.
5. Numerical Approximation and Simulations
5.1. Numerical Approximation of the Mathematical Model
5.2. Example 1
5.3. Example 2
5.4. Example 3
6. Conclusions and Future Work
- The inclusion of a natural predator for psyllid vectors, with minimal impact on citrus cultivation.
- The incorporation of time- and space-dependent coefficients for key model parameters, including the recruitment rate of citrus plants, the birth rate of vectors, and the infection pressures from both citrus and vector populations.
- A classical analysis of the proposed model, involving the computation of equilibrium points, the derivation of the basic reproduction number, and the subsequent assessment of equilibrium stability.
- The integration of a delay term into the model to account for the latency period of the pathogen within the psyllid vector, potentially enabling the prediction of future outbreaks.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Variable/Parameter | Description | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Host Population | ||
| C | Total citrus population | Population size |
| Healthy citrus plants (unexposed) | Population size | |
| Latent citrus plants (inoculated but not yet a source of inoculum) | Population size | |
| Diseased citrus plants (pathogen load sufficient for vector acquisition) | Population size | |
| Vector Population | ||
| V | Total adult psyllid population | Population size |
| Unexposed adult vectors (not yet acquired the pathogen) | Population size | |
| Acquiring adult vectors (fed on diseased citrus, pathogen not yet transmissible) | Population size | |
| Infective adult vectors (pathogen acquired, capable of transmission) | Population size | |
| Parameters | ||
| Citrus recruitment/planting rate | year−1 | |
| Vector recruitment rate | year−1 | |
| Acquisition force from vectors to citrus | km2 vector−1 year−1 | |
| Acquisition force from citrus to vectors | km2 vector−1 year−1 | |
| Natural mortality rate of citrus plants | year−1 | |
| Disease-induced mortality rate in citrus plants | year−1 | |
| Transition rate from latent to diseased citrus | year−1 | |
| Transition rate from acquiring to infective vectors | year−1 | |
| Natural mortality rate of adult vectors | year−1 | |
| Additional vector mortality due to control strategies | year−1 | |
| Diffusion coefficient of vector sub-population A with | km2 year−1 |
| Variable/Parameter | Example 1 | Example 2 |
|---|---|---|
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Huancas, F.; Coronel, A.; Alva, E.; Hess, I. Analytical Perspectives and Numerical Simulations of a Mathematical Model for Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Citrus Greening. Mathematics 2026, 14, 990. https://doi.org/10.3390/math14060990
Huancas F, Coronel A, Alva E, Hess I. Analytical Perspectives and Numerical Simulations of a Mathematical Model for Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Citrus Greening. Mathematics. 2026; 14(6):990. https://doi.org/10.3390/math14060990
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuancas, Fernando, Aníbal Coronel, Elmith Alva, and Ian Hess. 2026. "Analytical Perspectives and Numerical Simulations of a Mathematical Model for Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Citrus Greening" Mathematics 14, no. 6: 990. https://doi.org/10.3390/math14060990
APA StyleHuancas, F., Coronel, A., Alva, E., & Hess, I. (2026). Analytical Perspectives and Numerical Simulations of a Mathematical Model for Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Citrus Greening. Mathematics, 14(6), 990. https://doi.org/10.3390/math14060990

