Minimizing Dependency Ratio in Spain through Demographic Variables
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Demographic Model
2.2. Research Data
2.3. Instruments
2.3.1. Verification and Validation of the Model
2.3.2. Optimizing with Strategies and Scenarios
2.3.3. Optimizing with a Genetic Algorithm
3. Results
3.1. Model Verification
3.2. Application Case
3.2.1. Strategies and Scenarios
3.2.2. Genetic Algorithm
4. Discussion and Final Remarks
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Acronym Variable | Database (Source) | Period |
---|---|---|
bi | EUROSTAT/Population and social conditions/Demography and migration/Fertility/Live births per mother’s age and newborn’s sex (demo_fasec) | 2007–2019 |
di | EUROSTAT/Population and social conditions/Demography and migration/Mortality/Deaths per age and sex (demo_magec) | 2007–2019 |
ei | EUROSTAT/Population and social conditions/Demography and migration//Emigration/Emigration per age and sex (migr_emi2) | 2007–2019 |
yi | EUROSTAT/Population and social conditions/Demography and migration//Immigration/Immigration per age and sex (migr_imm8) | 2007–2019 |
wi | EUROSTAT/Population and social conditions/Demography and migration/Population/Population on 1 January by age and sex (demo_pjan) | 2007 and 2019 |
Year | Real Data | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|
2008 | 0.4577 | 0.4554 | 0.4580 |
2009 | 0.4625 | 0.4569 | 0.4628 |
2010 | 0.4707 | 0.4608 | 0.4709 |
2011 | 0.4791 | 0.4684 | 0.4793 |
2012 | 0.4885 | 0.4764 | 0.4887 |
2013 | 0.4971 | 0.4848 | 0.4974 |
2014 | 0.5049 | 0.4925 | 0.5051 |
2015 | 0.5129 | 0.5003 | 0.5136 |
2016 | 0.5184 | 0.5054 | 0.5196 |
2017 | 0.5202 | 0.5052 | 0.5240 |
2018 | 0.5198 | 0.5042 | 0.5252 |
2019 | 0.5199 | 0.5032 | 0.5239 |
Year | Min (SS1) | Max (SS1) | Min (SS2) | Max (SS2) | Min (SS3) | Max (SS3) | Min (SS4) | Max (SS4) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 0.520 | 0.520 | 0.520 | 0.520 | 0.520 | 0.520 | 0.520 | 0.520 |
2021 | 0.522 | 0.522 | 0.523 | 0.523 | 0.523 | 0.523 | 0.522 | 0.522 |
2022 | 0.523 | 0.523 | 0.521 | 0.526 | 0.521 | 0.527 | 0.522 | 0.522 |
2023 | 0.521 | 0.528 | 0.522 | 0.529 | 0.523 | 0.530 | 0.520 | 0.527 |
2024 | 0.521 | 0.529 | 0.522 | 0.530 | 0.524 | 0.531 | 0.520 | 0.527 |
2025 | 0.521 | 0.530 | 0.523 | 0.532 | 0.525 | 0.533 | 0.520 | 0.529 |
2026 | 0.522 | 0.532 | 0.524 | 0.535 | 0.527 | 0.536 | 0.521 | 0.530 |
2027 | 0.525 | 0.536 | 0.528 | 0.539 | 0.530 | 0.541 | 0.523 | 0.533 |
2028 | 0.528 | 0.539 | 0.531 | 0.543 | 0.534 | 0.546 | 0.525 | 0.536 |
2029 | 0.532 | 0.544 | 0.535 | 0.549 | 0.538 | 0.552 | 0.529 | 0.541 |
2030 | 0.536 | 0.549 | 0.540 | 0.555 | 0.543 | 0.557 | 0.532 | 0.546 |
2031 | 0.541 | 0.555 | 0.546 | 0.562 | 0.550 | 0.565 | 0.538 | 0.552 |
2032 | 0.547 | 0.562 | 0.552 | 0.570 | 0.557 | 0.574 | 0.543 | 0.558 |
2033 | 0.554 | 0.570 | 0.560 | 0.578 | 0.566 | 0.583 | 0.549 | 0.565 |
2034 | 0.559 | 0.576 | 0.567 | 0.586 | 0.572 | 0.591 | 0.555 | 0.571 |
2035 | 0.569 | 0.587 | 0.577 | 0.597 | 0.583 | 0.603 | 0.563 | 0.581 |
2036 | 0.577 | 0.596 | 0.587 | 0.608 | 0.593 | 0.615 | 0.571 | 0.590 |
2037 | 0.581 | 0.601 | 0.592 | 0.613 | 0.598 | 0.621 | 0.575 | 0.594 |
2038 | 0.583 | 0.604 | 0.596 | 0.617 | 0.603 | 0.625 | 0.576 | 0.597 |
2039 | 0.585 | 0.608 | 0.601 | 0.621 | 0.607 | 0.631 | 0.578 | 0.600 |
2040 | 0.586 | 0.610 | 0.604 | 0.624 | 0.610 | 0.635 | 0.579 | 0.600 |
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Control Variable | SS1 | SS2 | SS3 | SS4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Birth rate | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ |
Emigration rate | ↑ | ↓ | ↑ | ↓ |
Immigration rate | ↑ | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ |
CROM | CROI | Minimum PCRO | Maximum PCRO |
---|---|---|---|
CROM(1) Birth rate | 0.00784 | 0.00784 | 0.0200 |
CROM(2) Immigration rate | 0.01632 | 0.00500 | 0.0350 |
CROM(3) Emigration rate | 0.00644 | 0.00482 | 0.0200 |
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Micó, J.C.; Soler, D.; Sanz, M.T.; Caselles, A.; Amigó, S. Minimizing Dependency Ratio in Spain through Demographic Variables. Mathematics 2022, 10, 1471. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10091471
Micó JC, Soler D, Sanz MT, Caselles A, Amigó S. Minimizing Dependency Ratio in Spain through Demographic Variables. Mathematics. 2022; 10(9):1471. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10091471
Chicago/Turabian StyleMicó, Joan C., David Soler, Maria T. Sanz, Antonio Caselles, and Salvador Amigó. 2022. "Minimizing Dependency Ratio in Spain through Demographic Variables" Mathematics 10, no. 9: 1471. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10091471
APA StyleMicó, J. C., Soler, D., Sanz, M. T., Caselles, A., & Amigó, S. (2022). Minimizing Dependency Ratio in Spain through Demographic Variables. Mathematics, 10(9), 1471. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10091471