Impacts of Regional Integration and Market Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Balances of Selected East African Countries: Potential Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area
Abstract
:1. Background
2. Literature Review
3. Methods
3.1. Model
3.1.1. Theoretical Framework
3.1.2. Empirical Model
3.2. Data and Sources
3.3. Model Estimation and Results
3.3.1. Descriptive Statistics
3.3.2. Unit Root Tests
3.4. Panel Regression Results for Bilateral Trade Balances
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Impacts of Tariffs on Trade Balances
4.2. Impact of Active Participation in FTAs on Bilateral Trade Balances
4.3. Effect of Distance on Bilateral Trade Balance
4.4. Effects of Relative Income on Trade Balances
4.5. Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balances
4.6. Effect of Relative Price on Bilateral Trade Balances
5. Conclusions
6. Recommendations
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Disclaimer
Appendix A
TARGETED RESPONDENTS
|
Issues to obtain stakeholder views on |
General views on the potential impacts of AfCFTA for countries in national trade balances.
|
TARGETED PARTICIPANTS
|
Issues to seek perspectives of traders on |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 | Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo—DRC. |
2 | Rwanda, Burundi, and the DRC. |
3 | United Republic of Tanzania. |
4 | Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and the Federal Republic of Somalia. |
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Country | Kenya | Uganda | Tanzania | Rwanda |
---|---|---|---|---|
Trade Partners | Burundi Democratic Republic of Congo Egypt Eswatini Mauritius Rwanda South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia | Burundi Democratic Republic of Congo Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Africa Sudan Tanzania Zambia | Burundi Democratic Republic of Congo Egypt Eswatini Kenya Malawi Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Rwanda South Africa Uganda Zambia | Burundi Cameroon Democratic Republic of Congo Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Tanzania Tunisia Uganda Zambia |
Country | Variables | Obs | Mean | Std. Deviation | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kenya | lnTBij | 193 | 1.326234 | 2.242506 | −8.119229 | 9.26279 |
lnRPGNIji | 210 | 0.2160549 | 1.195267 | −2.124475 | 2.48567 | |
lnRGDPji | 210 | −0.8272978 | 1.562378 | −3.660679 | 2.6534 | |
lnDISTij | 210 | 7.334903 | 0.7293681 | 6.222874 | 8.170093 | |
MFN trade Weighted Tariffij | 122 | 21.04924 | 15.36514 | 1.888869 | 84.50749 | |
lnEXCHRij | 209 | −0.2217416 | 2.437015 | −3.605275 | 3.198146 | |
lnRPji | 204 | 0.0294985 | 0.2148947 | −1.723159 | 0.5237281 | |
Uganda | lnTBij | 207 | 0.992126 | 3.05202 | −5.77915 | 8.167259 |
lnRPGNIji | 210 | 0.464031 | 0.944054 | −1.3207 | 2.915854 | |
lnRGDPji | 210 | 0.443313 | 1.470261 | −2.64654 | 3.472573 | |
lnDISTij | 210 | 7.084359 | 0.726786 | 5.929722 | 8.104289 | |
MFN trade Weighted Tariffij | 188 | 12.98092 | 8.071677 | 0.342724 | 46.15428 | |
lnEXCHRij | 210 | 3.581783 | 2.330288 | 0.325188 | 6.852314 | |
lnRPji | 206 | −0.00289 | 0.392637 | −2.06667 | 2.917769 | |
Rwanda | lnTBij | 186 | −0.80493 | 4.019844 | −14.4495 | 11.95249 |
lnRPGNIji | 211 | −0.229929 | 0.814578 | −1.26144 | 2.403493 | |
lnRGDPji | 211 | −0.82263 | 1.285054 | −2.57472 | 1.973745 | |
lnDISTij | 211 | 6.989612 | 0.882561 | 5.179984 | 8.470689 | |
MFN trade Weighted Tariffij | 151 | 20.00504 | 13.78315 | 0 | 89.87846 | |
lnEXCHRij | 211 | 1.472818 | 2.441024 | −1.50447 | 6.13911 | |
lnRPji | 205 | 0.067289 | 0.2964492 | −1.92725 | 1.018584 | |
Tanzania | lnTBij | 272 | 0.7963187 | 2.789716 | −7.778935 | 8.567072 |
lnRPGNIji | 273 | 0.4306175 | 1.128428 | −1.558972 | 2.545235 | |
lnRGDPji | 273 | −.5543845 | 1.482554 | −3.164834 | 2.678648 | |
lnDISTij | 273 | 7.402512 | 0.7117583 | 6.322888 | 8.752172 | |
MFN trade Weighted Tariffij | 221 | 14.54257 | 11.85354 | 0.021007 | 83.78444 | |
lnEXCHRij | 273 | 3.048566 | 2.114589 | −0.7200544 | 5.851021 | |
lnRPji | 264 | −0.0558257 | 0.2429695 | −2.02887 | 0.8532615 |
Country | EACACTIVE1 | COMESA ACTIVE 1 | SADC ACTIVE1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Frequency | % | Frequency | % | Frequency | % | |
Kenya | 0 | 141 | 67.14 | 51 | 24.29 | ||
1 | 69 | 32.86 | 159 | 75.71 | |||
total | 210 | 100.00 | 210 | 100.00 | |||
Uganda | 0 | 133 | 63.33 | 51 | 24.29 | ||
1 | 77 | 36.67 | 159 | 75.71 | |||
total | 210 | 100 | 210 | 100 | |||
Rwanda | 0 | 153 | 72.51 | 65 | 30.81 | ||
1 | 58 | 27.49 | 146 | 69.19 | |||
total | 211 | 100.00 | 211 | 100 | |||
Tanzania | 0 | 203 | 74.36 | 126 | 46.15 | ||
1 | 70 | 25.64 | 147 | 53.85 | |||
total | 273 | 100.00 | 273 | 100.00 |
Kenya | Uganda | Tanzania | Rwanda | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IPS Test | Fisher Type ADF Test | IPS Test | Fisher Type ADF Test | |||
Ln Trade Balanceij | −2.5937 (0.0047) | −3.3426 (0.0004) | −2.7840 (0.0027) | |||
Ln Relative GDPji | −2.5546 (0.0053) | −2.4496 (0.0072) | −3.4861 (0.0002) | −3.3403 (0.0004) | ||
Ln Relative per capita GNIji | −2.3509 (0.0094) | −1.8246 (0.0340) | ||||
MFN Weighted Tariffij | 54.3460 (0.0001) | 72.2212 (0.0000) | ||||
Ln exchange rateij | −2.7862 (0.0027) | −1.9063 (0.0283) | −3.9592 (0.0000) | |||
Ln relative priceji | −5.3095 (0.0000) | 93.6708 (0.0000) | −4.7435 (0.0000) |
Variables | Dependent Variable: Natural Log of Bilateral Trade Balance (Ln TBij) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kenya | Uganda | Tanzania | Rwanda | |||||
Fixed Effects (fe) | Random Effects (re) | Fixed Effects (fe) | Random Effects (re) | Fixed Effects (fe) | Random Effects(re) | Fixed Effects (fe) | Random Effects (re) | |
Ln Relative per Capita GNIji | 1.343 (1.3938) | −0.8370 (0.6402) | −2.2606 * (1.1905) | −0.1936 (0.4111) | 0.2555 (1.6687) | −0.9185 *** (0.3124) | −0.7465 (2.8348) | −2.5283 *** (0.7050) |
Ln Relative GDPji | −3.627 ** (1.4222) | −0.1890 (0.4507) | 2.7820 ** (1.1836) | −0.17402 (0.2996) | −0.3990 (1.3553) | 0.3169 (0.2056) | −1.0971 (2.4331) | −1.3877 *** (0.4260) |
Ln Dist. | −3.1418 ** (1.3081) | −2.1679 *** (0.5320) | 0.2581 (0.5015) | 0.4319 (0.7787) | ||||
MFN trade Weighted Tariff | 0.0031 (0.0085) | (0.0082 (0.0086) | −0.03168 ** (0.0133) | −0.0588 *** (0.0144) | −0.0007 (0.0085) | −0.0064 (0.0091) | −0.0023 (0.0178) | −0.0017 (0.0179) |
LnEXCHRij | 2.687 *** (0.6318) | 0.9492 ** 0.4276 | −0.2551 (0.5527) | −0.6433 *** (0.1378) | 0.4655 (0.7925) | −0.6762 *** (0.1909) | (0.2616) (1.4987) | −0.2765 (0.1732) |
LnRPji | 3.632 *** (0.8577) | 1.3804 ** (0.6371) | 0.9135 (0.5789) | 1.1791 *** (0.3073) | 0.8472 (0.9370) | −0.5787 (0.4667) | 2.7557 (1.7885) | 2.029 ** (0.9783) |
EAC | 0.3736 (0.5964) | −0.0281 (0.6192) | −2.852 *** (0.7066) | −4.4283 *** (0.5944) | 0.0246 ** (0.5262) | 0.0695 (0.5395) | −0.9463 (0.8323) | −1.0111 (0.7229) |
COMESA | −2.651 *** (0.7093) | −2.6638 *** (0.6972) | 0.413084 0.546098 | 1.1101 ** (0.4452) | −0.3926 (0.7132) | −0.5498 (0.7000) | ||
SADC | 0.6761 (0.6056) | |||||||
_cons | 0.254557 (1.4224) | 26.30578 (9.5112) | 2.683117 1.755712 | 20.189 (3.7969) | −1.0177 (2.3566) | 1.1841 (3.6976) | −1.5586 (2.4127) | −3.0966 (5.2883) |
Number of Obs. | 116 | 116 | 185 | 185 | 215 | 215 | 138 | 138 |
Number of groups | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
Hausman Test Results | chi2(7) = 32.66 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 | chi2(7) = −14.38 chi2 < 0 ==> model does not meet asymptotic assumptions of the test | chi2(6) = 7.78 Prob>chi2 = 0.2546 | chi2(7) = 16.79 Prob>chi2 = 0.0188 |
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Onono, P.; Omondi, F.; Mwangangi, A. Impacts of Regional Integration and Market Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Balances of Selected East African Countries: Potential Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area. Economies 2024, 12, 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12060155
Onono P, Omondi F, Mwangangi A. Impacts of Regional Integration and Market Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Balances of Selected East African Countries: Potential Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area. Economies. 2024; 12(6):155. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12060155
Chicago/Turabian StyleOnono, Perez, Francis Omondi, and Alice Mwangangi. 2024. "Impacts of Regional Integration and Market Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Balances of Selected East African Countries: Potential Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area" Economies 12, no. 6: 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12060155
APA StyleOnono, P., Omondi, F., & Mwangangi, A. (2024). Impacts of Regional Integration and Market Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Balances of Selected East African Countries: Potential Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area. Economies, 12(6), 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12060155