Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Changes on Rainfall and Evapotranspiration in the Northwest Region of Bangladesh
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources for Present and Future Climate
2.3. Downscaling of GCM Results
2.4. Selection of Climate Models
3. Results
3.1. Variability in GCM Predictions
3.2. Projection of Future Change
3.2.1. Changes at Annual Scale
3.2.2. Changes at Crop Growing Seasons
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Emission Scenario | Temperature Increase (°C) by 2046–2065 | Temperature Increase (°C) by 2081–2100 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Likely Range | Mean | Likely Range | |
RCP2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.7 |
RCP4.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 to 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.6 |
RCP6.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 |
RCP8.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 to 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 to 4.8 |
CMIP5 Model ID | Institution and Country of Origin | Atmospheric Horizontal Resolution (°lat × °long) |
---|---|---|
Access-1.0 | CSIRO-BOM, Australia | 1.9 × 1.2 |
Access-1.3 | CSIRO-BOM, Australia | 1.9 × 1.2 |
BCC-CSM1-1 | Beijing Climate Center, China | 2.8 × 2.8 |
BCC-CSM1-M | Beijing Climate Center, China | 1.1 × 1.1 |
CanESM2 | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis | 2.8 × 2.8 |
CCSM4 | National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA | 1.2 × 0.9 |
CESM1-BGC | National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA | 1.2 × 0.9 |
CESM1-CAM5 | National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA | 1.2 × 0.9 |
CNRM CM5 | National Centre for Meteorological Research, France | 1.4 × 1.4 |
CSIRO MK3-6 | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia | 1.9 × 1.9 |
GFDL-CM3 | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 2.5 × 2.0 |
GFDL-ESM2G | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 2.5 × 2.0 |
GFDL-ESM2M | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 2.5 × 2.0 |
GISS-E2-H | NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA | 2.5 × 2.0 |
GISS-E2-H-CC | NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA | 1.0 × 1.0 |
GISS-E2-R | NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA | 2.5 × 2.0 |
GISS-E2-R-CC | NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA | 1.0 × 1.0 |
HadGEM2-AO | National Institute of Meteorological Research and Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMR-KMA), Korea | 1.9 × 1.2 |
HadGEM2-CC | Met Office Hadley Centre, UK | 1.9 × 1.2 |
HadGEM2-ES | Met Office Hadley Centre, UK | 1.9 × 1.2 |
INMCM4 | Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russia | 2.0 × 1.5 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France | 3.7 × 1.9 |
IPSL-CM5A-MR | Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France | 2.5 × 1.3 |
MIROC5 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan | 1.4 × 1.4 |
MIROC-ESM | JAMSTEC, Japan | 2.8 × 2.8 |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | JAMSTEC, Japan | 2.8 × 2.8 |
MRI-CGCM3 | Meteorological Research Institute, Japan | 1.1 × 1.1 |
NorESM1-M | Norwegian Climate Centre, Norway | 2.5 × 1.9 |
Climate Index | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Data | Excluding Outlier | All Data | Excluding Outlier | |||||
Rainfall | PET | Rainfall | PET | Rainfall | PET | Rainfall | PET | |
Minimum | 0.936 | 0.985 | 0.936 | 0.985 | 0.946 | 0.969 | 0.946 | 0.969 |
25th percentile | 1.019 | 1.017 | 1.014 | 1.015 | 1.027 | 1.015 | 1.025 | 1.015 |
Mean | 1.086 | 1.031 | 1.070 | 1.030 | 1.117 | 1.036 | 1.097 | 1.033 |
Median | 1.081 | 1.027 | 1.065 | 1.026 | 1.097 | 1.039 | 1.092 | 1.037 |
75th Percentile | 1.133 | 1.045 | 1.125 | 1.042 | 1.183 | 1.049 | 1.148 | 1.044 |
Maximum | 1.366 | 1.090 | 1.241 | 1.090 | 1.449 | 1.106 | 1.380 | 1.077 |
Scen. | Description | Selected GCM | SF for Rainfall | SF for PET | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||
S1 | Low rainfall, Average PET | GFDL-ESM2G | GFDL-ESM2G | 0.983 | 0.997 | 1.029 | 1.038 |
S2 | High rainfall, Average PET, | MIROC-ESM | HADGEM2-CC | 1.220 | 1.238 | 1.039 | 1.041 |
S3 | Average rainfall, Average PET | BCC-CSM1-1 | BCC-CSM1-1M | 1.118 | 1.124 | 1.034 | 1.036 |
S4 | Average rainfall, Low PET | GISS-E2-H-CC | ACCESS1.3 | 1.096 | 1.098 | 0.991 | 0.997 |
S5 | Average rainfall, High PET, | IPSL-CM5A-LR | IPSL-CM5A-MR | 1.126 | 1.130 | 1.064 | 1.071 |
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Karim, F.; Mainuddin, M.; Hasan, M.; Kirby, M. Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Changes on Rainfall and Evapotranspiration in the Northwest Region of Bangladesh. Climate 2020, 8, 94. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8080094
Karim F, Mainuddin M, Hasan M, Kirby M. Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Changes on Rainfall and Evapotranspiration in the Northwest Region of Bangladesh. Climate. 2020; 8(8):94. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8080094
Chicago/Turabian StyleKarim, Fazlul, Mohammed Mainuddin, Masud Hasan, and Mac Kirby. 2020. "Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Changes on Rainfall and Evapotranspiration in the Northwest Region of Bangladesh" Climate 8, no. 8: 94. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8080094