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Open AccessArticle

Scale-Dependent Reliability of Projected Rainfalls over Bangladesh with the PRECIS Model

1
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, Boise, ID 83706, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2020, 8(2), 20; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8020020
Received: 6 December 2019 / Revised: 18 January 2020 / Accepted: 22 January 2020 / Published: 27 January 2020
The regional climate model, Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS), has been widely used throughout the world to generate climate change projections for impact studies and adaptations. Its recent application in South Asia also includes the projection of rainfall extremes. In spite of its wide application, a stringent validation of the model is yet to be reported. In this study, we assessed the performance of the model in simulating annual, monthly and extreme rainfalls over Bangladesh by using a number of statistical techniques, e.g., pattern (both spatial and temporal) correlation, root mean square difference (RMSD), mean absolute difference (MAD), Student’s t-test for significance, probability density functions, etc. The results indicated that the PRECIS model could capture the overall spatial pattern of mean annual and monthly rainfalls very well. However, the inter-annual variability was poorly simulated by the model. In addition, the model could not capture the rainfall extremes. A spatial aggregation of rainfall data did not improve the reliability of the model as far as variability and extremes are concerned. Therefore, further improvements of the model and/or its driving global climate model are warranted for its practical use in the generation of rainfall scenarios. View Full-Text
Keywords: rainfall variability and extremes; PRECIS; reliability; spatial and temporal scales; Bangladesh rainfall variability and extremes; PRECIS; reliability; spatial and temporal scales; Bangladesh
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Mondal, M.S.; Nowreen, S.; Sakib, M.N. Scale-Dependent Reliability of Projected Rainfalls over Bangladesh with the PRECIS Model. Climate 2020, 8, 20.

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