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Open AccessArticle

Do Farmers Perceive the Trends of Local Climate Variability Accurately? An Analysis of Farmers’ Perceptions and Meteorological Data in Myanmar

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Philosophy Program in Agricultural and Resource Economics (International Program), Graduate School, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand
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Department of Agricultural Economics, Yezin Agricultural University, NayPyiTaw 15013, Myanmar
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Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand
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Department of Economics, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2019, 7(5), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7050064
Received: 1 April 2019 / Revised: 30 April 2019 / Accepted: 3 May 2019 / Published: 5 May 2019
With the existing state of issues related to global climate change, the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of climate is critically important if they plan to implement appropriate adaptation measures in their farming. This article evaluated if farmers perceive the trends of local climate variability accurately, and was verified by the historical meteorological data analysis. Ordered probit perception models were applied in this study to determine the factors influencing the accuracy of farmer perception. It was observed that farmers’ perceptions of the rainfall amount during the early, mid, and late monsoon periods were highly accurate, and they also accurately perceived summer temperature change, but less accuracy of perception was observed of the temperate changes of the winter and monsoon seasons. Access to weekly weather information, participation in agricultural trainings, farming experience, and education level of the farmer were the major factors determining the accuracy of perception in this study. Based on the empirical results, this study suggested policy implications for (a) the locally specified weather information distribution, and (b) integration of weather information into agricultural training programs, which are available to the farming community to enhance the government implantation of the Myanmar Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy and Myanmar Climate Change Master Plan 2018–2030. View Full-Text
Keywords: accuracy of perception; climate trend; climate variability; Myanmar; ordered probit accuracy of perception; climate trend; climate variability; Myanmar; ordered probit
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Hein, Y.; Vijitsrikamol, K.; Attavanich, W.; Janekarnkij, P. Do Farmers Perceive the Trends of Local Climate Variability Accurately? An Analysis of Farmers’ Perceptions and Meteorological Data in Myanmar. Climate 2019, 7, 64.

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