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Open AccessArticle

Relationship between East Asian Cold Surges and Synoptic Patterns: A New Coupling Framework

by Anupam Kumar 1,2,3,*, Edmond Y.M. Lo 2,4 and Adam D. Switzer 2,5,6
1
Interdisciplinary Graduate School, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore
2
Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore
3
Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117574, Singapore
4
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore
5
Asian School of Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore
6
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2019, 7(2), 30; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7020030
Received: 15 January 2019 / Revised: 29 January 2019 / Accepted: 30 January 2019 / Published: 1 February 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Climate Niche Models)
Strong cold surge events (CSEs) are some of the most distinct winter weather events in East Asia, impacting natural ecosystems and over 100 million individuals. The impact of such extreme CSEs as driven by synoptic systems is direct and immediate. Changes in large-scale synoptic patterns as potentially affected by changes in the Arctic are further expected to influence CSE occurrences in East Asia. Defying a straightforward analysis, semi-permanent atmospheric systems such as the Siberian High (SH), influencing large-scale synoptic patterns, make the atmospheric circulation highly variable and assessment of CSE onset difficult. Rather varied region-specific metrics are currently adopted for predicting CSE occurrence locally but the fundamental understanding of the onset of CSEs continues to be a major challenge. Based on an analysis of monthly synoptic patterns for three unusual CSEs in East Asia and further extended for eight strong to extreme CSEs, we propose a new coupling framework for an improved understanding and interpretation of the atmosphere dynamics driving CSE onset. The coupling framework involves linkages between the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and Jet Stream. We also present the first meteorological scale for categorizing the intensity of such unusual CSEs. View Full-Text
Keywords: cold surge; synoptic patterns; Siberian High; Aleutian Low; Jet Stream cold surge; synoptic patterns; Siberian High; Aleutian Low; Jet Stream
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Kumar, A.; Lo, E.Y.; Switzer, A.D. Relationship between East Asian Cold Surges and Synoptic Patterns: A New Coupling Framework. Climate 2019, 7, 30.

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