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Climate 2019, 7(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010008

Statistical Analysis of Recent and Future Rainfall and Temperature Variability in the Mono River Watershed (Benin, Togo)

1
Laboratory of Applied Hydrology, National Water Institute, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 01 BP 526, Benin
2
West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Cotonou 01 BP 526, Benin
3
Laboratoire Eaux Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d’Ingénierie de l’Eau et de l’Environnement, Ouagadougou 01 BP 594, Burkina Faso
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 17 November 2018 / Revised: 23 December 2018 / Accepted: 27 December 2018 / Published: 6 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)
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Abstract

This paper assessed the current and mid-century trends in rainfall and temperature over the Mono River watershed. It considered observation data for the period 1981–2010 and projection data from the regional climate model (RCM), REMO, for the period 2018–2050 under emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Rainfall data were interpolated using ordinary kriging. Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Standardized Normal Homogeneity (SNH) tests were used for trends and break-points detection. Rainfall interannual variability analysis was based on standardized precipitation index (SPI), whereas anomalies indices were considered for temperature. Results revealed that on an annual scale and all over the watershed, temperature and rainfall showed an increasing trend during the observation period. By 2050, both scenarios projected an increase in temperature compared to the baseline period 1981–2010, whereas annual rainfall will be characterized by high variabilities. Rainfall seasonal cycle is expected to change in the watershed: In the south, the second rainfall peak, which usually occurs in September, will be extended to October with a higher value. In the central and northern parts, rainfall regime is projected to be characterized by late onsets, a peak in September and lower precipitation until June and higher thereafter. The highest increase and decrease in monthly precipitation are expected in the northern part of the watershed. Therefore, identifying relevant adaptation strategies is recommended. View Full-Text
Keywords: Mono River watershed; trend analysis; climate Mono River watershed; trend analysis; climate
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Emmanuel, L.A.; Hounguè, N.R.; Biaou, C.A.; Badou, D.F. Statistical Analysis of Recent and Future Rainfall and Temperature Variability in the Mono River Watershed (Benin, Togo). Climate 2019, 7, 8.

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