Time-Lag of Seasonal Effects of Extreme Climate Events on Grassland Productivity Across an Altitudinal Gradient in Tajikistan

Mountain grassland ecosystems around the globe are highly sensitive to seasonal extreme climate events, which thus highlights the critical importance of understanding how such events have affected vegetation dynamics over recent decades. However, research on the time-lag of the effects of seasonal extreme climate events on vegetation has been sparse. This study focuses on Tajikistan, which is characterized by a typical alpine meadow–steppe ecosystem, as the research area. The net primary productivity (NPP) values of Tajikistan’s grasslands from 2001 to 2022 were estimated using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model. In addition, 20 extreme climate indices (including 11 extreme temperature indices and 9 extreme precipitation indices) were calculated. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the grassland NPP and these extreme climate indices were further analyzed. Using geographic detector methods, the impact factors of extreme climate indices on grassland NPP were identified along a gradient of different altitudinal bands in Tajikistan. Additionally, a time-lag analysis was conducted to reveal the lag time of the effects of extreme climate indices on grassland NPP across different elevation levels. The results revealed that grassland NPP in Tajikistan exhibited a slight upward trend of 0.01 gC/(m²·a) from 2001 to 2022. During this period, extreme temperature indices generally showed an increasing trend, while extreme precipitation indices displayed a declining trend. Notably, extreme precipitation indices had a significant impact on grassland NPP, with the interaction between Precipitation anomaly (PA) and Max Tmax (TXx) exerting the most pronounced influence on the spatial variation of grassland NPP (q = 0.53). Additionally, it was found that the effect of extreme climate events on grassland NPP had no time-lag at altitudes below 500 m. In contrast, in mid-altitude regions (1000–3000 m), the effect of PA on grassland NPP had a significant time-lag of two months (p < 0.05). Knowing the lag times until the effects of seasonal extreme climate events on grassland NPP will appear in Tajikistan provides valuable insight for those developing adaptive management and restoration strategies under current seasonal extreme climate conditions.