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Volume 14
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Article

Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Mangrove Species Acanthus ebracteatus Under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on MaxEnt and OPGD Models

by
Jiaqi Chen
†,
Liuping Wu
†,
Chongcheng Yang
,
Qiongzhen Qiu
,
Yi Wang
,
Zhixin Li
and
Chunhua Xia
*
College of Coastal Agricultural Sciences, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Plants 2025, 14(18), 2827; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14182827
Submission received: 6 July 2025 / Revised: 6 September 2025 / Accepted: 8 September 2025 / Published: 10 September 2025
(This article belongs to the Topic Responses of Trees and Forests to Climate Change)
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Abstract

Climate change threatens coastal biodiversity, necessitating proactive conservation for endangered species like the mangrove Acanthus ebracteatus. This study integrated the MaxEnt and OPGD models to simulate its potential suitable habitats under current and three future SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Based on the MaxEnt model, sea surface salinity (SSS_range), sea surface temperature (SST_max), soil texture (T_silt, T_sand), and annual precipitation (Bio12) were identified as the dominant factors influencing its distribution, with SSS_range emerging as the key constraint. Furthermore, interaction analysis using the OPGD model revealed significant synergistic effects, particularly between salinity and soil properties (q > 0.8), underscoring the importance of multi-factor interactions in ecological niche modeling. Under the three SSP scenarios, the suitable habitat is projected to expand northeastward, accompanied by a poleward shift in the distribution centroid, driven predominantly by warming temperatures and altered rainfall patterns. KDE analysis revealed that existing protected areas do not fully cover regions with high habitat suitability. We propose a stratified conservation strategy that enhances in situ protection in core zones, initiates assisted restoration in potential habitats, and promotes experimental outplanting in future climatically suitable areas. This study provides scientific insights for the conservation and management of Acanthus ebracteatus under global climate change.
Keywords: climate change; Acanthus ebracteatus; MaxEnt model; OPGD model; suitable habitat climate change; Acanthus ebracteatus; MaxEnt model; OPGD model; suitable habitat

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Chen, J.; Wu, L.; Yang, C.; Qiu, Q.; Wang, Y.; Li, Z.; Xia, C. Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Mangrove Species Acanthus ebracteatus Under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on MaxEnt and OPGD Models. Plants 2025, 14, 2827. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14182827

AMA Style

Chen J, Wu L, Yang C, Qiu Q, Wang Y, Li Z, Xia C. Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Mangrove Species Acanthus ebracteatus Under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on MaxEnt and OPGD Models. Plants. 2025; 14(18):2827. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14182827

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chen, Jiaqi, Liuping Wu, Chongcheng Yang, Qiongzhen Qiu, Yi Wang, Zhixin Li, and Chunhua Xia. 2025. "Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Mangrove Species Acanthus ebracteatus Under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on MaxEnt and OPGD Models" Plants 14, no. 18: 2827. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14182827

APA Style

Chen, J., Wu, L., Yang, C., Qiu, Q., Wang, Y., Li, Z., & Xia, C. (2025). Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Mangrove Species Acanthus ebracteatus Under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on MaxEnt and OPGD Models. Plants, 14(18), 2827. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14182827

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