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A Generalized Linear Mixed Model Approach to Assess Emerald Ash Borer Diffusion

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Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
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Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
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Esri Canada, 900-12 Concorde Pl, Toronto 4700, ON M3C 3R8, Canada
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Department of Biostatistics, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9(7), 414; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9070414
Received: 29 May 2020 / Revised: 24 June 2020 / Accepted: 26 June 2020 / Published: 27 June 2020
The Asian Emerald Ash Borer beetle (EAB, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) can cause damage to all species of Ash trees (Fraxinus), and rampant, unchecked infestations of this insect can cause significant damage to forests. It is thus critical to assess and model the spread of the EAB in a manner that allows authorities to anticipate likely areas of future tree infestation. In this study, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), combining the features of the commonly used generalized linear model (GLM) and a random effects model, was developed to predict future EAB spread patterns in Southern Ontario, Canada. The GLMM was designed to deal with autocorrelation in the data. Two random effects were established based on the geographic information provided with the EAB data, and a method based on statistical inference was proposed to identify the most significant factors associated with the distribution of the EAB. The results of the model showed that 95% of the testing data were correctly classified. The predictive performance of the GLMM was substantially enhanced in comparison with that obtained by the GLM. The influence of climatic factors, such as wind speed and anthropogenic activities, had the most significant influence on the spread of the EAB. View Full-Text
Keywords: generalized linear mixed model; spatial autocorrelation; random effects; spatial modelling; Emerald Ash Borer generalized linear mixed model; spatial autocorrelation; random effects; spatial modelling; Emerald Ash Borer
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Zhong, Y.; Hu, B.; Hall, G.B.; Hoque, F.; Xu, W.; Gao, X. A Generalized Linear Mixed Model Approach to Assess Emerald Ash Borer Diffusion. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9, 414.

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