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Ambient Population and Larceny-Theft: A Spatial Analysis Using Mobile Phone Data

School of Humanities and Social Science, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton L8S 4L8, Canada
The School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Center of GeoInformatics for Public Security, School of Geographic Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Xi’an Public Security Bureau, Xi’an 710002, China.
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9(6), 342;
Received: 16 April 2020 / Revised: 15 May 2020 / Accepted: 20 May 2020 / Published: 26 May 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Using GIS to Improve (Public) Safety and Security)
In the spatial analysis of crime, the residential population has been a conventional measure of the population at risk. Recent studies suggest that the ambient population is a useful alternative measure of the population at risk that can better capture the activity patterns of a population. However, current studies are limited by the availability of high precision demographic characteristics, such as social activities and the origins of residents. In this research, we use spatially referenced mobile phone data to measure the size and activity patterns of various types of ambient population, and further investigate the link between urban larceny-theft and population with multiple demographic and activity characteristics. A series of crime attractors, generators, and detractors are also considered in the analysis to account for the spatial variation of crime opportunities. The major findings based on a negative binomial model are three-fold. (1) The size of the non-local population and people’s social regularity calculated from mobile phone big data significantly correlate with the spatial variation of larceny-theft. (2) Crime attractors, generators, and detractors, measured by five types of Points of Interest (POIs), significantly depict the criminality of places and impact opportunities for crime. (3) Higher levels of nighttime light are associated with increased levels of larceny-theft. The results have practical implications for linking the ambient population to crime, and the insights are informative for several theories of crime and crime prevention efforts. View Full-Text
Keywords: ambient population; larceny-theft; crime; mobile phone data; spatial analysis ambient population; larceny-theft; crime; mobile phone data; spatial analysis
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He, L.; Páez, A.; Jiao, J.; An, P.; Lu, C.; Mao, W.; Long, D. Ambient Population and Larceny-Theft: A Spatial Analysis Using Mobile Phone Data. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9, 342.

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