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ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2018, 7(9), 335; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7090335

Towards Modelling Future Trends of Quebec’s Boreal Birds’ Species Distribution under Climate Change

Laboratory of Environmental Geosimulation (LEDGE), Department of Geography, University of Montreal, Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Pavillon 520, Montreal, QC H2V 2B8, Canada
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Received: 19 June 2018 / Revised: 17 August 2018 / Accepted: 20 August 2018 / Published: 22 August 2018
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Abstract

Adaptation to climate change requires prediction of its impacts, especially on ecosystems. In this work we simulated the change in bird species richness in the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada, under climate change scenarios. To do so, we first analyzed which geographical and bioclimatic variables were the strongest predictors for the spatial distribution of the current resident bird species. Based on canonical redundancy analysis and analysis of variance, we found that annual temperature range, average temperature of the cold season, seasonality of precipitation, precipitation in the wettest season, elevation, and local percentage of wet area had the strongest influence on the species’ distributions. We used these variables with Random Forests, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Maximum Entropy models to explain spatial variations in species abundance. Future species distributions were calculated by replacing present climatic variables with projections under different climate change pathways. Subsequently, maps of species richness change were produced. The results showed a northward expansion of areas of highest species richness towards the center of the province. Species are also likely to appear near James Bay and Ungava Bay, where rapid climate change is expected. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; boreal Quebec; biogeography; species richness; bioclimatic modelling; redundancy analysis (RDA); ecological change; random forest (RF) climate change; boreal Quebec; biogeography; species richness; bioclimatic modelling; redundancy analysis (RDA); ecological change; random forest (RF)
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Gaudreau, J.; Perez, L.; Harati, S. Towards Modelling Future Trends of Quebec’s Boreal Birds’ Species Distribution under Climate Change. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2018, 7, 335.

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