A Novel Bus Arrival Time Prediction Method Based on Spatio-Temporal Flow Centrality Analysis and Deep Learning
2. Related Works
3.1. Feature Extraction
3.1.1. Bus Network Basic Features
- Passing Timeis the required time in seconds for the jth bus of the route i to arrive at the kth stop from the preceding k− 1th stop. is the difference between arrival time and departure time , as shown in Equation (1). We do not compute starting station’s as there is no preceding station.
- Mean SpeedMean Speed (m/s) is divided by Distance d as shown in Equation (2). Here, d is the distance between stop and stop k on bus route i.
- Wait TimeWait Time is the amount of time a bus temporarily stays at the bus stop for loading and unloading passengers or a short break, as shown in Equation (3).
- Inter-Arrival Time IInter-Arrival Time I between buses on a bus route is given in Equation (4). We obtain I by subtracting the time when the j− 1th bus on the bus route i arrived at stop k from the time when the jth bus on i arrived at the same stop.
- Distance dDistance d in meters is the Euclidean distance between stops and and on bus route i given their coordinates as shown in Equation (5).
- Current TimeCurrent time of is the time in which the hour, minute, and second information is converted into seconds.
- Bus Stop Order IndexThe Bus Stop Order Index (BSOI) of k denotes the sequential order of station k for bus route i. Each bus route is composed of bus stops in a different order. For instance, in Figure 2, the BSOI of bus stops A, B, C, and D for route B2 are 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively.
3.1.2. Bus Flow Centrality Analysis Features
- Individual In Degreerefers to a set of times buses took to pass a given stop within a certain amount of time to pass through a specific link. Suppose is given. From a preset time period in the past () to , we retrieve of every bus j on route i passing stop k via (denoted as ). In other words, can be regarded as a set of buses including j and other buses ahead on the same route i that represent the overall inbound spatial flows upon the point when j passes bus station k. The pseudo-code for obtaining is presented in Algorithm 1.An intuitive example is provided in Figure 3. Bus B1 is en route, passing stops in the order of H, D, E, F, G, and C. Figure 3a,b show a snapshot at and , respectively, where F is the fourth stop for route . Bus B1-4 on sub-figure a is in between stops D and E. Later on, sub-figure b shows B1-4 arriving at stop F. In this case, the buses involved in producing are B1-2, B1-3, and B1-4.Spatial flow information is embedded further into a low-dimensional vector. We construct this vector by applying Equations (6)–(8) to a given . The embedding process is carried out for every stop and every bus. Note that, by using such embedding, we represent not only spatial information but also the different temporal dynamics of every bus on the route.
- Individual Out Degreerepresents the outbound spatial flow when a bus j leaves station k for bus stop . Suppose is provided. From a preset time period in the past () to , we retrieve of every bus j on route i that left station k for the next stop (denoted as ). is expected to be another factor for influencing the time a bus takes to reach the next stop. can be obtained by the running the pseudo-code presented in Algorithm 2.As shown in Figure 3, buses B1-1 and B1-2 that departed stop G are ahead of B1-4. of B1-1 and B1-2 can provide a clue for B1-4 on the condition of the link to the next stop.
- Total Out Degreeis computed for a particular route. On the other hand, is a set of PTs of buses on all routes heading toward the next stop from stations k. represents the aggregate flow pattern on the link to the next stop. Buses not moving to are not considered in constructing . For example, in Figure 3, buses on route B3 are not considered for computing for station G via F. It is because the buses on B3 head toward stop I from F instead. Set can be obtained by executing Algorithm 3. is embedded into the latent vector using Equation (6), Equation (7), and Equation (8). Along with , we keep IODs separately for all stops and buses to account for microscopic flow patterns that can affect the travel time prediction to the next stations.
|Algorithm 1: Individual In Degree .|
|Algorithm 2: Individual Out Degree .|
|Algorithm 3: Total Out Degree .|
3.1.3. Contextual Features
- Buses pass through stops in order;
- A bus x cannot overtake the other bus y ahead if x and y are on the same route;
- Algorithm 4 implements linear interpolation between two points. However, interpolation cannot be carried out for the time intervals, with consecutive nulls appearing at the beginning or end of the sequence.
|Algorithm 4: Interpolation function.|
4.1. Measuring Prediction Performance
4.2. Measuring the Predictive Performance of Random Forest Models
4.3. Measuring the Predictive Performance of Multi-Linear Regression Models
4.4. Measuring the Predictive Performance of LSTM Models
Conflicts of Interest
|BFC||Bus Flow Centrality;|
|IID||Individual In Degree;|
|IOD||Individual Out Degree;|
|TOD||Total Out Degree;|
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|Model||Data Type||Data Range||MAPE|
|ALSTM ||✓||-||-||1 month||1 route||4|
|Weighted LSTM ||✓||-||✓||8 month||1 route||4.89|
|LSTM ||✓||-||-||12 month||1 route||3.6|
|ConvLSTM ||✓||-||-||6 month||1 route||4.19|
|Ensemble ML ||-||-||✓||1 month||1 route||19.64|
|LSTM-RNN ||-||-||-||1 month||47 routes||11.75|
|DA-RNN ||-||-||✓||unknown||4 routes||18|
|BFC-LSTM||-||✓||-||1 month||100+ routes||1.19|
|-||✓||✓||1 month||100+ routes||2.90|
(by Bus Stop ID)
|With Contextual Features|
|Without Contextual Features|
|LT (min.)||With Contextual Features||Without Contextual Features|
|MAE||RMSE||MAPE (%)||MAE||RMSE||MAPE (%)|
|Number of Time Windows||MAE||RMSE||MAPE (%)|
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Lee, C.; Yoon, Y. A Novel Bus Arrival Time Prediction Method Based on Spatio-Temporal Flow Centrality Analysis and Deep Learning. Electronics 2022, 11, 1875. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics11121875
Lee C, Yoon Y. A Novel Bus Arrival Time Prediction Method Based on Spatio-Temporal Flow Centrality Analysis and Deep Learning. Electronics. 2022; 11(12):1875. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics11121875Chicago/Turabian Style
Lee, Chanjae, and Young Yoon. 2022. "A Novel Bus Arrival Time Prediction Method Based on Spatio-Temporal Flow Centrality Analysis and Deep Learning" Electronics 11, no. 12: 1875. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics11121875