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Resources 2019, 8(1), 33; https://doi.org/10.3390/resources8010033

Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100

1
Mines ParisTech, Center for Applied Mathematics, PSL Research University, Rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, 06904 Sophia Antipolis Cedex, France
2
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, avenue Claude Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 1 November 2018 / Revised: 11 January 2019 / Accepted: 30 January 2019 / Published: 6 February 2019
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Abstract

Achieving a “carbon neutral” world by 2100 or earlier in a context of economic growth implies a drastic and profound transformation of the way energy is supplied and consumed in our societies. In this paper, we use life-cycle inventories of electricity-generating technologies and an integrated assessment model (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) to project the global raw material requirements in two scenarios: a second shared socioeconomic pathway baseline, and a 2 °C scenario by 2100. Material usage reported in the life-cycle inventories is distributed into three phases, namely construction, operation, and decommissioning. Material supply dynamics and the impact of the 2 °C warming limit are quantified for three raw fossil fuels and forty-eight metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources. Depending on the time horizon, graphite, sand, sulfur, borates, aluminum, chromium, nickel, silver, gold, rare earth elements or their substitutes could face a sharp increase in usage as a result of a massive installation of low-carbon technologies. Ignoring nonfuel resource availability and value in deep decarbonation, circular economy, or decoupling scenarios can potentially generate misleading, contradictory, or unachievable climate policies. View Full-Text
Keywords: industrial ecology; integrated assessment models; life-cycle inventories; mineral resources; decoupling; prospective scenario analysis; TIAM-FR; socioeconomic metabolism industrial ecology; integrated assessment models; life-cycle inventories; mineral resources; decoupling; prospective scenario analysis; TIAM-FR; socioeconomic metabolism
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Boubault, A.; Maïzi, N. Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100. Resources 2019, 8, 33.

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