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Article

Analyzing Possible Shifts in the Climatic Niche of Pomacea canaliculata Between Native and Chinese Ranges

by
Ran Zhang
1,
Yue Gao
2,
Rui Wang
1,*,
Shigang Liu
1,
Qianqian Yang
3,*,
Yuan Li
1 and
Longshan Lin
1
1
Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of National Resource, Xiamen 361005, China
2
Key Laboratory of Evolution and Marine Biodiversity (Ministry of Education), Institute of Evolution and Marine Biodiversity, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
3
Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Biometrology and Inspection & Quarantine, College of Life Sciences, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Biology 2025, 14(9), 1127; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14091127
Submission received: 18 July 2025 / Revised: 5 August 2025 / Accepted: 11 August 2025 / Published: 25 August 2025
(This article belongs to the Section Ecology)
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Simple Summary

This study investigates the climatic niche shifts in the invasive species Pomacea canaliculata between its native and invaded area (China), and quantitative analysis was conducted. The aim is to explore whether the climate niche has changed after Pomacea canaliculata invasion in China, and analyze its changes in the time series. The results revealed that there has been a significant climate niche shifts between the native and invaded area (China) of Pomacea canaliculata, which does not support the climate niche conservation hypothesis. Pomacea canaliculata can survive in colder and drier regions than their native counterparts, demonstrate strong environmental adaptability. The findings are crucial for enhancing invasive species risk assessment models, developing effective control strategies, and exploring the adaptive evolution mechanisms of invasive species.

Abstract

The impact of invasive alien species (IAS) is one of the direct factors causing global biodiversity decline and economic losses, and predicting the potential invasion risks of invasive species is crucial for developing prevention and control strategies. In recent years, an increasing number of studies have shown that invasive species undergo rapid shifts in climate niche in invaded areas. Accurately quantifying the dynamic shifts in the climate niche of invasive species in invaded areas is crucial for developing a more accurate framework for early warning of invasive species risks. Pomacea canaliculata is a freshwater snail found in South America and has become one of the most aggressive aquatic species in the world. Since its introduction to China in 1981, it has rapidly spread and caused multiple serious damages to agriculture, ecology, and public health. Therefore, based on multi-source distribution data of P. canaliculata, this study calculated the climate niche overlap by Schoener’ s D, quantified the niche shifts between the P. canaliculata in native and invaded areas (China) via the COUE scheme (a unified terminology representing niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion), and analyzed their changes on a time scale. The results revealed that there have been significant climate niche shifts (Schoener’s D < 0.2, niche similarity tests p > 0.01, niche equivalence tests p < 0.01) between the native and invaded areas (China) of P. canaliculata, which does not support the climate niche conservation hypothesis. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6) and precipitation seasonality (Bio 15) were the key climate variables driving the climatic niche shift, and P. canaliculata can survive in colder and more arid regions than their native counterparts. The changes in the niche shifts in P. canaliculata on a time scale show significant temporal heterogeneity, and its invasion behavior in China presents a discontinuous and phased expansion pattern, with strong adaptability to new environments. The results are of great significance for the future development of more accurate ecological niche model (ENM), the formulation of more targeted prevention and control strategies, and the study of adaptive evolution mechanisms of invasive species.

1. Introduction

Owing to the increase in human activities, thousands of species have been introduced into areas beyond their native range, leading to a sharp decline in biodiversity, and affecting social health and the economy [1,2]. Invasive species have a widespread negative impacts on ecosystems and biological populations, affecting ecosystem services and reducing the abundance of native species through mechanisms such as predation, hybridization, and competition [3]. Once they form a viable population, eradicating them is often difficult [4,5], and it is often impossible to detect them in a timely manner when the species first invades [3]. Freshwater accounts for only 0.01% of the world’s water resources, but its biodiversity per unit surface area is greater than that of terrestrial and marine ecosystems [6]. Among them, freshwater invasive mollusks constitute one of the most dangerous groups [7,8]. Pomacea canaliculata is a freshwater snail native to the Rio de la Plata Basin in South America. This species is in the family Ampullaridae and is a highly invasive species of freshwater snail [9]. There are three ways in which P. canaliculate is harmful. First, it is the main pest of aquatic crops such as rice, which can cause crop yield reduction by gnawing on seedlings, resulting in considerable economic losses [10,11]. Second, the P. canaliculata can damage the structure and function of wetland ecosystems, threatening the survival of local species by altering nutrient cycling and primary productivity [12,13]. In addition, P. canaliculata is also an intermediate host of Angiostrongylus cantonensis, which may cause human eosinophilic meningitis and pose a serious threat to public health [14,15]. Therefore, P. canaliculata has become one of the most invasive aquatic organisms worldwide [16,17,18], and has been listed as one of the 100 most serious invaders by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) [17].
At present, research on the invasion of P. canaliculata has focused mainly on the following aspects: first, the invasion ecology of P. canaliculata, including diffusion pathways, invasion mechanisms, and their impact on local ecosystems [16,19]; second, its physiological adaptability, such as tolerance to environmental stresses such as low temperature and drought [15,20]; and third, the ecological niche model (ENM) has been used to predict its potential distribution range and assess its future invasion risk [21,22]. The use of the ENM to evaluate the future distribution of P. canaliculata can help us develop management strategies for P. canaliculata invasion. Because the ecological niche describes the range of environmental conditions in which a specific species appears, it reveals the relationship among the distribution, environmental variables, and potential range shifts in invasive alien species in the context of global climate change, providing an important foundation for invasive ecology [23,24]. However, one of the key underlying assumptions of ENMs is the climatic niche conservatism hypothesis [25,26]. However, not all invasive species exhibit niche conservatism during geographical expansions, and a shift in the niche can be the result of adaptive changes, the release of natural enemies, the disappearance of dispersal constraints, or tolerance to conditions presently unavailable in the native range [27,28]. If the target species does not follow the assumption of the niche conservation, predictions based on the ENM may be misleading, underestimating the potential distribution of invaded areas and affecting the effective management of species invasion. Climatic niche shifts may mean that these species adapt to new climates during the invasion process, and invasive species with stronger niche shifts may have greater invasion risk or potential. Therefore, the climatic niche shifts in invasive species is also an important aspect of invasive ecology research [29,30,31].
Most previous studies have assumed that the climatic niche of the P. canaliculata is conserved between its native and invaded areas. However, recent studies have shown that P. canaliculata may exhibit significant niche shifts during invasion and can adapt to a wider range of climatic conditions [22,32]. P. canaliculata was introduced to China in the 1980s and was initially raised for economic reasons for food. Owing to their poor meat texture and limited market demand, P. canaliculata has been abandoned in large numbers and have quickly spread in the wild [21]. At present, the distribution range of P. canaliculata in China is constantly expanding, gradually spreading to many places such as Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hunan and Sichuan, causing considerable economic losses [33]. However, there is currently little research on the niche shift in P. canaliculata after its invasion in China, which limits a comprehensive understanding of its potential for invasion in China and affects the formulation of prevention and control strategies. If a niche shift is ignored and its distribution is predicted on the basis solely of environmental data from the native area, its actual invasion range may be underestimated. In addition, against the background of global climate change, the distribution of P. canaliculata may further expand to high-latitude regions, and existing models have different predictions. Therefore, on the basis of the distribution data and bioclimatic data of P. canaliculata in its native and invaded areas (China), this study used the COUE scheme (a unified terminology representing niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion) [27] to analyze the shifts in the climatic niche of P. canaliculata in their native and invaded areas (China), as well as the main driving climate variables, and further analyzed their changes on a time scale. These research results can provide a reference for more accurate assessment of the invasion risk of P. canaliculata and the development of more scientific and effective prevention and control measures.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Occurrence Records (P. canaliculata Distribution Data)

The distribution data of P. canaliculata were obtained from scientific references [18,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46], the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, http://www.gbif.org/, accessed on 2 August 2025; links to all GBIF datasets can be found in Appendix A) and field collection data from scientific surveys. First, we conducted a preliminary cleaning of the collected distribution data. For the distribution data of P. canaliculata collected from the scientific literature and scientific survey, we verified the coordinate information using Google Earth to remove duplicate and inaccurate distribution point data; for the data obtained from the GBIF, records with latitudes and longitudes equal to zero, coordinates falling into the ocean, or near animal breeding facilities were deleted. Second, to avoid spatial autocorrelation, Moran’s index was used to exclude points less than 10 km apart, and the R package “sp. Thin” (version: 0.2.0) was used to refine all the spatial distribution data [47]. After spatial refinement, a total of 1220 geographic distribution data points were retained. It is important to clarify that the distribution data of P. canaliculata collected in this study predominantly originate from its distribution patterns in natural water bodies. Specifically, the survey collected data were primarily gathered from locations such as riverbanks, areas beneath trees, roadside zones, and wetland parks within urban and rural settings. The data sourced from references mainly consist of investigation findings concerning the distribution of P. canaliculata in natural environments. Additionally, the data downloaded from the GBIF underwent thorough processing, during which potentially erroneous distribution records were removed. Although it is not entirely possible to exclude the possibility that some of the distribution data may have been derived from artificial reservoirs or experimental rice paddies, such instances are found to be relatively scarce when compared to the data from natural water bodies. This data composition is beneficial for investigation into the climatic niche shift in P. canaliculata and reduces potential biases from human-induced environmental modifications.
According to the regional scope, we divided the distribution data of P. canaliculata into two groups: “native distribution” and “invasive distribution (in China)”. To analyze the climatic niche shifts in the P. canaliculata the invaded area (China) over time, we divided the distribution data of the “invasion (in China)” group into three groups on the basis of a 10-year time period: 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s. The above process was repeated three times, and similar results were obtained each time (Figure 1). Therefore, the sample size may not significantly alter our analysis results.

2.2. Climatic Variables

The bioclimatic variables used in the models were obtained from the WorldClim database Version 2.1 (https://www.worldclim.org/data/worldclim21.html, accessed on 2 August 2025) at a spatial resolution of 30 s (~1 km2). The 19 climate variables are shown in Table 1.
To avoid including highly correlated variables in the models, multicollinearity was evaluated using Pearson pairwise correlation by means of the “Performance Analytics” statistical package in R 4.3.1.
Nineteen climate variables were examined to select a subset on the basis of two main principles: (1) variables were excluded from the analysis if the absolute value of their correlation index was greater than 0.8 (Figure 2); and (2) the climate variables selected from (1) were divided into three groups: the temperature variable group, the precipitation variable group, and the seasonal variable group. On the basis of the climate differences between the native and invasive (China) areas of P. canaliculata, 1–2 important climate variables, including basic and limiting climate variables, were selected from each group. In terms of basic variables, our study considered climate variables that directly affect the survival of P. canaliculata, mainly temperature and precipitation; in terms of limiting variables, we mainly considered the temperature stress that may limit the northward expansion of P. canaliculata in the “invasion (China)” group and the drought stress that may limit the northward expansion of P. canaliculata in the “invasion (China)” group to the north and northwest.
The final selection of the 6 variables was as follows: annual mean temperature (Bio 1), temperature seasonality (Bio 4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), annual precipitation (Bio 12), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14), and precipitation seasonality (Bio 15).

2.3. Climatic Niche Shift Analysis

In our study, we estimated the niche overlap based on the framework proposed by Broennimann et al. [48]. This framework has three steps: (1) calculation of the density of occurrences and of environmental factors along the environmental axes of multivariate analysis (PCA); (2) measurement of niche overlap along the gradients of this multivariate analysis; and (3) statistical tests of niche equivalency and similarity [49]. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed with the nine selected climatic variables detailed above to represent the niche space occupied by P. canaliculata in the “native” and “invasive” (China) areas. Kernel density functions were applied to estimate the smoothed density of presence records and available environments along the first two axes of the PCA, preventing biases owing to the spatial resolution of the variables [26,48].
Niche overlap was calculated for “native” versus “invasive” (China) groups by means of Schoener’s D, which ranges from 0 to 1 [48,49]. Rödder and Engler [50] proposed the following categories: 0~0.2, no or very limited overlap; 0.2~0.4, low overlap; 0.4~0.6, moderate overlap; 0.6~0.8, high overlap; and 0.8–1.0, very high overlap.
The climatic niche shifts between the P. canaliculata in native and invaded ranges (China) was analyzed by the COUE scheme (a unified terminology representing niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion) [27]. Centroid shift measures the change in the mean niche position; niche stability measures the proportion of the nonnative niche overlapping with the native niche and reflects the tendency of a species to conserve its niche in space; niche unfilling measures the proportion of the native niche that does not overlap with the non-native niche, indicating that the species only partially fills its niche in the invaded range; and niche expansion is estimated as the proportion of the non-native niche that does not overlap with the native niche and occurs when a species colonizes new environments in the invaded ranges. Finally, we performed niche similarity and equivalence tests to evaluate the statistical significance of the observed overlap between native and Chinese ranges climatic conditions [48,49]. The niche equivalency test addresses whether two niches are equivalent by randomly reassigning occurrences from both invasive and native niches. The niche similarity test evaluates whether the invasive niche is more or less similar to the native niche than expected by chance. Both tests were based on 1000 repetitions, the native niche was fixed as a reference, and only the invasive niches were shifted. All these analyses were performed using the ecospat R package in R 4.3.1 [51].

3. Results

3.1. Predictors Responsible for Climatic Niche Shifts

PCA results demonstrated that the first two PC axes of the total niche spaces accounted for 73.4% of the variation among the six climatic predictors (Figure 3). The first PC axis, which was mainly represented by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), was responsible for 54.3% of the variation. The second PC axis, which mainly reflects precipitation seasonality (Bio 15), accounted for 19.1% of the variation (Figure 3). The differences in the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6) and the precipitation seasonality between the regions where the native and invasive P. canaliculata occur induced niche shifts.
The Wilcoxon test revealed that, compared with native P. canaliculata, the invasive P. canaliculata was significantly more likely to occur in areas with lower minimum temperatures in the coldest month (Bio 6, p = 0.00037) and stronger precipitation seasonality (Bio 15, p = 0.0079), demonstrating significant differences (Figure 4). The results suggest that invasive P. canaliculata can survive in colder and more arid regions that can their native counterparts.

3.2. Climatic Niche Shifts

The analysis based on Schoener’s D and niche dynamic components (expansion, stability, and unfilling) revealed significant niche shifts in P. canaliculata during its invasion (Table 2). These changes were not only observed in overall patterns, but also exhibited distinct temporal dynamics.

3.3. Niche Overlap

The overall niche overlap between native and invasive P. canaliculata was remarkably low (Schoener’s D = 0.0467). Temporally, the niche overlap showed a pattern of initial decline followed by gradual increase; it reached its lowest value in the 2000s (Schoener’s D = 0.0175) before rebounding to Schoener’s D = 0.0418 by the 2020s. The results of similarity tests were all non-significant (p > 0.01), with niche similarity being lower than expected by chance, and failing to reject the null hypothesis. This finding indicates that P. canaliculata did not select for environmental conditions in the invaded range that were highly similar to those in its native range, demonstrating niche dissimilarity. In contrast, all niche equivalence tests yielded significant results (p < 0.01), rejecting the null hypothesis and confirming significant differences between the native niche and invasive niche. In summary, P. canaliculata exhibited a significant niche shift, rejecting the niche conservatism hypothesis for invasive species.

3.4. Climatic Niche Shifts Dynamics

The overall niche expansion, niche stability, and niche unfilling between native and invasive P. canaliculata were 0.1975, 0.8024, and 0.1153, respectively (Figure 5). During different time periods, the highest degree of niche expansion (0.2511) and niche unfilling (0.5315) occurred in the 2000s; the highest degree of niche stability (0.8818) occurred in the 2010s, while the degree of niche expansion and niche unfilling declined (0.1181); the lowest degree of niche unfilling (0.1916) occurred in the 2020s, while the degree of niche expansion slightly rebounded (Figure 6).

4. Discussion

4.1. The Main Variables Driving Climatic Niche Shifts in P. canaliculata

Schoener’s D, the niche similarity test, and the equivalence test revealed that the niche similarity between the native and invaded areas (China) of P. canaliculata was very limited (Schoener’s D was within 0.2, similarity test p > 0.01, equivalence test p < 0.01), indicating that P. canaliculata experienced significant niche shifts after invading China. The PCA results revealed that Bio 6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) and Bio 15 (precipitation seasonality) were the main climatic variables driving the niche shift in P. canaliculata, and P. canaliculata significantly expanded to areas with lower temperatures and stronger precipitation seasons in the invaded area (China). This result is similar to the results obtained from the analysis of the climate adaptation of the Yunnan P. canaliculata population, which indicated a differentiation between the Yunnan P. canaliculata population and its native niche. The Yunnan P. canaliculata population adapted to regions with lower annual average temperatures (Bio 1) and stronger precipitation seasons (Bio 15) [21]. Some related studies conducted in other regions of Asia have obtained similar results. Matsukura et al. [15] reported that the degree of niche overlap between the Japanese P. canaliculata population and the native population was very limited. The lowest winter temperature (similar to that of Bio 6) was a key factor limiting the northward expansion of P. canaliculata. The Japanese P. canaliculata population adapted to low temperatures through diapause (dormancy), which is consistent with the observed expansion of cold tolerance in China. Horgan et al. [13] noted in their study of niche shifts in P. canaliculata in the Philippines that seasonal precipitation (similar to that in Bio 15) dominated the shift in the niche, and its niche extended to areas with more pronounced drought.
The finding that Bio 6 leads to a niche shift P. canaliculata indicates that its cold tolerance has increased in the invaded area (China), as P. canaliculata can reduce its metabolic rate and energy consumption in low-temperature environments [20]. In terms of behavioral performance, P. canaliculata burrows into the sediment to reduce the exposure time to cold water bodies, prevent extremely low temperatures, and increase the overwintering survival rate [15]. Another key driving variable, Bio 15, indicates that the invasive population of P. canaliculata in China is more adapted to environments with stronger precipitation. This is related to the increased drought tolerance of P. canaliculata. Studies have shown that P. canaliculata can survive the dry season by closing their shells or being dormant [32], whereas some invaded areas in China have distinct dry and wet seasons, which may screen individuals with greater drought tolerance. There are also studies indicating that the population of P. canaliculata in southern China can adapt to seasonal precipitation by reducing the metabolic rate and delaying egg laying during the dry season [19], as concentrated egg laying during the rainy season can improve the survival rate of juveniles [52]. In addition, the release of competition and natural enemies [53] may have further promoted the adaptive evolution of P. canaliculata in invasive areas, expanding its niche. Previous studies shown that P. canaliculata lacks effective competitors in Asian rice fields, leading to population outbreaks [54].
Although the invasive population of P. canaliculata in China is cold and drought tolerant, extremely low temperatures in winter remain the main limiting variable for their expansion to higher latitudes (such as Northeast China) [21]. In the current context of global climate change, the climate may further alter the distribution pattern of P. canaliculata. If the warming trend continues in the future winter (such as the increase in Bio 6), its distribution boundary may continue to shift northward. On the other hand, changes in precipitation patterns (such as an increase in extreme drought or rainstorm events) may further change suitable habitats by affecting the hydrological conditions of wetlands. The niche shifts in P. canaliculata indicate its strong environmental adaptability, which poses a great challenge for invasion risk assessment and management. The traditional niche model (ENM) may underestimate the potential distribution of P. canaliculata [26], and future research needs to combine experimental ecology (such as cold and drought tolerance testing) with genomics (such as adaptive gene screening) to reveal the molecular mechanisms of rapid P. canaliculata adaptation. In addition, prevention and control strategies should focus on populations with strong adaptability to low temperatures and drought, such as monitoring their overwintering survival rate in winter or strengthening agricultural drainage management in areas with strong seasonal precipitation.
In this study, we demonstrated that P. canaliculata exhibits adaptability to colder and drier climatic conditions within its invasive range in China. However, it is important to acknowledge that the distribution dataset compiled for this research may include records from non-natural habitats, such as experimental rice paddies and artificial reservoirs. Given that these anthropogenically modified environments could inherently favor the survival of P. canaliculata, their inclusion in the dataset might introduce confounding biases, despite our efforts to minimize such influences during data curation. Therefore, future investigations should not only focus on elucidating ecological mechanisms in natural habitats, but also assess population dynamics in human-altered environments to inform more comprehensive management strategies for P. canaliculata.

4.2. Climatic Niche Shift Dynamics and Invasion Strategies of P. canaliculata

In our study, we conducted a comprehensive and time-dependent analysis of the niche drift of P. canaliculata in its native and invaded areas (China). Overall, Schoener’s D shows that the niche overlap between the native and invaded areas (China) of P. canaliculata is extremely limited (Schoener’s D = 0.0467). The results of both the similarity test (p > 0.01) and the equivalence test (p < 0.01) indicate that the invasive population of P. canaliculata has broken free from the constraints of the native climatic variables. The high stability and significant expansion indicate that the core ecological needs of P. canaliculata remain conservative, but its ability to adapt to new environments is strong.
At different stages, there is significant temporal heterogeneity in the niche shifts in P. canaliculata between its native and invaded areas (China). Schoener’s D gradually increases over time, but the highest value is still far below 0.2. This phenomenon reflects the view that invasive species may remain relatively stable in core niches and exhibit greater plasticity or adaptability in marginal niches [27]. Schoener’s D was relatively low in the early stages, indicating that nonbiological factors filtered out individuals who were unable to adapt during the invasion of P. canaliculata. In the later stage, Schoener’s D increased, indicating that the population broke through the initial limitations through evolution or plasticity, and that the overlap with the native niche increased. In addition, human interference factors can also increase Schoener’s D, and agricultural activities (such as irrigation) may artificially simulate the native climate, leading to Schoener’s D approaching the native level. The gradual increase in Schoener’s D suggests that we need to further evaluate areas that were previously considered “low-risk”, such as high-latitude regions under climate change. An analysis of the expansion in the 2010s and 2020s stages revealed that Schoener’s D and expansion increased synchronously, indicating that the niche of P. canaliculata in the invaded area still expanded overall, rather than returning to its original state. In the 2000s stage, high expansion (0.2511) and high unfilling (0.5315) coexisted, which may indicate that P. canaliculata rapidly expanded its niche during this period, while also having a large amount of unoccupied niche space. During this stage, P. canaliculata may experience genetic bottlenecks and rapid adaptation [55], exploring and occupying marginal habitats through rapid diffusion and broad-spectrum environmental tolerance. This stage is often accompanied by high niche expansion and high phenotypic diversity, laying the foundation for the local adaptation of subsequent populations [56]. In the 2010s stage, stability reached its peak (0.8818), but both expansion and unfilling decreased, which may indicate that the niche of P. canaliculata tended to stabilize and that the expansion rate slowed during this period. During this stage, it is possible that P. canaliculata underwent natural selection, eliminating unsuitable genotypes and forming a new niche core. This phenomenon is consistent with the concept proposed by Colautti et al. [57] that invasive species have specific biotic and abiotic factors such as “sieving” in each invasion process, determining whether the species can enter the next stage. The results obtained from our study revealed that Bio 6, as a strong filtering variable, eliminated genotypes that were not cold-resistant, leading to a sudden increase in niche stability during the 2010s stage, whereas Bio 15 screened populations that could synchronize their reproductive cycles with the rainy season, improving population survival rates. In the 2020s phase, unfilling recharge significantly decreased, accompanied by an increase in expansion. This phenomenon indicates that P. canaliculata further occupied more niche space during this period, and the niche expansion slightly rebounded, which may indicate that P. canaliculata started to expand to a certain extent again. The invasion behavior of P. canaliculata shows a discontinuous and phased expansion pattern in its new environment. This model is similar to the “pulsed invasion” model proposed by Johnson et al. [58] when Lymantria dispar invaded North America. The concept of “pulsed invasion” emphasizes that invasion is driven by environmental fluctuations, human interference, or adaptive evolution within the population, rather than uniform linear diffusion. This invasion pattern is not common among the invasive species of freshwater gastropods, and the reason why snails exhibit this pattern may be related to special human transmission pathways (such as the spread of irrigation systems in rice-growing areas) and climate diversity in China; however, current research in this area is very rare. In addition to the aforementioned considerations, another scenario warrants attention. Arim et al. [59] posited that the diffusion dynamics of the majority of invasive species, encompassing invertebrates, demonstrate a negative feedback structure. Specifically, when the diffusion rate strays from its equilibrium state, the system employs a negative feedback mechanism to reinstate it to equilibrium. The invasion pattern of P. canaliculata in China, as discerned in this study, may similarly be modulated by this negative feedback structure, thereby manifesting as a non-continuous, phased invasion pattern that gravitates towards a stabilized invasion rate. Consequently, future research endeavors should incorporate a more profound and integrated analysis, taking into account the potential regulatory mechanisms that may emerge during the process of species invasion.
In addition, the invasion pattern of P. canaliculata conforms to the r-strategy life history characteristics, which are associated with rapid population growth, high reproductive output, and stronger environmental tolerance, and these characteristics may be associated with greater phenotypic plasticity [56]. The r-strategy life history supports the “rapid adaptor hypothesis” [60], indicating that after invading a new environment, P. canaliculata can rapidly undergo adaptive evolution to better adapt to selection pressures in the new environment (such as climate, soil, and biological interactions).

5. Conclusions

In this study, we analyzed the climatic niche shifts and their driving factors of Pomacea canaliculata between its native (South America) and invaded areas (China) using the COUE scheme (a unified terminology representing niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion), and explored their changes on a time scale. The results revealed that there has been a significant climate niche shifts between the native and invaded area (China) of P. canaliculata, which does not support the ”climatic niche conservatism hypothesis”. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6) and precipitation seasonality (Bio 15) were key climatic variables driving climatic niche shift in P. canaliculata, indicating that the invasive population of P. canaliculata in China has enhanced their own cold and arid resistance. Dynamic analysis on a time scale revealed that climatic niche shift in P. canaliculata exhibit phased characteristics: in the 2000s, the niche rapidly expanded with a high unfilling; in the 2010s, the stability tended to stabilize and reached its peak; the unfilling significantly decreased in the 2020s, and the niche expanded again. The invasion behavior of P. canaliculata in China presents a discontinuous and phased expansion pattern, with strong adaptability to new environments. We also found that the climatic niche shift in P. canaliculata may be related to its life history strategy (r-strategy) and rapid adaptation ability, including behavioral regulation and genetic adaptation. Global climate change may further drive its expansion towards higher latitudes, while traditional niche models may underestimate its potential distribution. Future research needs to combine experimental ecology and genomics to reveal its adaptive mechanisms and provide a basis for developing prevention and control strategies. In summary, the climatic niche shift in P. canaliculata in China reflects its strong environmental adaptability, posing new challenges to invasion risk assessment and prevention.

Author Contributions

R.Z. performed the data analyses and wrote the first draft. Y.G. helped obtain the P. canaliculata samples and data. R.W. helped the data analyses and revised the manuscript. S.L. helped with mapping data. Q.Y., Y.L. and L.L. revised the manuscript. All authors participated in the discussion to finalize the manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This study was financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC2601303).

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author since the completion of the funded project is still pending.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all the staff who participated in sampling. We are especially grateful to Jin Sun for his great help during the sampling process.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Appendix A. The Data Cited from GBIF

Data SetLink
native distribution data of P. canaliculata.iNaturalist contributors, iNaturalist (2025). iNaturalist Research-grade Observations. iNaturalist.org. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/ab3s5x (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=50c9509d-22c7-4a22-a47d-8c48425ef4a7&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Darrigran G, Damborenea C (2024). Zoología Invertebrados—Malacología. Version 1.2. Museo de La Plata. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/3h7xpk (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=93efdc85-10ca-448c-a3e3-01bce24479c9&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Seuffert M E, Martín P R (2024). Global records of the invasive freshwater apple snail Pomacea canaliculata (Lamarck, 1822). Version 1.3. Instituto de Ciencias Biológicas y Biomédicas del Sur (INBIOSUR). Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/j4tbns (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=26820b90-367e-4029-b70c-db601c591128&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Tablado A, Rodríguez D (2021). Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales “Bernardino Rivadavia” (MACN). Invertebrates National Collection (MACNIn). Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/uuz636 (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=6197c830-d9c7-11de-b793-b8a03c50a862&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Orrell T, Informatics and Data Science Center—Digital Stewardship (2025). NMNH Extant Specimen Records (USNM, US). Version 1.96. National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/hnhrg3 (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=821cc27a-e3bb-4bc5-ac34-89ada245069d&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Carnegie Museums (2025). Carnegie Museum of Natural History—Mollusks. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/4rfubm (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=07ae2aa8-5031-4312-b26e-84a5c753daac&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Harvard University M, Morris P J (2025). Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University. Version 162.476. Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/p5rupv (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=4bfac3ea-8763-4f4b-a71a-76a6f5f243d3&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
SysTax. SysTax—Zoological Collections. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/zyqkbl (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=7d8ed137-1d30-42f1-8b78-12a4957e4690&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Denver Museum of Nature & Science Marine Invertebrate Collection https://doi.org/10.15468/lyw1fq (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=5a6977c1-ece6-44b8-b71d-43cb1d4e0919&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
The International Barcode of Life Consortium (2024). International Barcode of Life project (iBOL). Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/inygc6 (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=AR&dataset_key=040c5662-da76-4782-a48e-cdea1892d14c&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
invasive distribution (in China) data of P. canaliculataEuropean Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI), GBIF Helpdesk (2025). INSDC Sequences. Version 1.148. European Nucleotide Archive (EMBL-EBI). Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/sbmztx (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=CN&dataset_key=d8cd16ba-bb74-4420-821e-083f2bac17c2&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
iNaturalist contributors, iNaturalist (2025). iNaturalist Research-grade Observations. iNaturalist.org. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/ab3s5x (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=CN&dataset_key=50c9509d-22c7-4a22-a47d-8c48425ef4a7&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Seuffert M E, Martín P R (2024). Global records of the invasive freshwater apple snail Pomacea canaliculata (Lamarck, 1822). Version 1.3. Instituto de Ciencias Biológicas y Biomédicas del Sur (INBIOSUR). Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/j4tbns (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=CN&dataset_key=26820b90-367e-4029-b70c-db601c591128&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
The International Barcode of Life Consortium (2024). International Barcode of Life project (iBOL). Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/inygc6 (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=CN&dataset_key=040c5662-da76-4782-a48e-cdea1892d14c&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Zhou J, Wong L (2025). CBCGDF CCAfa Volunteer Observation Archive. Version 1.198. China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/wxze8b (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=CN&dataset_key=1b26c417-366a-4eb0-a212-6ee8035d83fb&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Wong L, Chen S, Chen S (2025). CBCGDF-Green-Youth. Version 1.42. China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/8dteut (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=CN&dataset_key=98d8d571-f83f-4076-8a41-86056198a969&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
naturgucker.de. NABU| naturgucker. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/uc1apo (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=CN&dataset_key=6ac3f774-d9fb-4796-b3e9-92bf6c81c084&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.
Illinois Natural History Survey (2025). Illinois Natural History Survey- Mollusk Collection. Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/cu4scd (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/search?country=CN&dataset_key=763f9aee-060c-4d71-a538-16c383e53a4d&taxon_key=2292582&occurrence_status=present (accessed on 2 August 2025) via GBIF.org.

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Figure 1. Global records of P. canaliculata showing the “native” and “invasive (China)” distribution utilized for niche analyses.
Figure 1. Global records of P. canaliculata showing the “native” and “invasive (China)” distribution utilized for niche analyses.
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Figure 2. Pearson pairwise correlations for 19 climatic variables.
Figure 2. Pearson pairwise correlations for 19 climatic variables.
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Figure 3. Principal component axes (PCAs) used to delimit the niche space of P. canaliculata. The contribution represent the loadings of the predictors on each PC axis. The first PC axis, which was mainly represented by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), was responsible for 54.3% of the variation. The second PC axis, which mainly reflects the precipitation seasonality (Bio 15), accounted for 19.1% of the variation. The color gradient indicates the contribution of each predictor.
Figure 3. Principal component axes (PCAs) used to delimit the niche space of P. canaliculata. The contribution represent the loadings of the predictors on each PC axis. The first PC axis, which was mainly represented by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), was responsible for 54.3% of the variation. The second PC axis, which mainly reflects the precipitation seasonality (Bio 15), accounted for 19.1% of the variation. The color gradient indicates the contribution of each predictor.
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Figure 4. Comparisons of the climatic range between the occurrence records of P. canaliculata from native and invasive regions.
Figure 4. Comparisons of the climatic range between the occurrence records of P. canaliculata from native and invasive regions.
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Figure 5. Niche dynamics of P. canaliculata in the “native” group versus invaded range in the “invasive” (China) group. The colored areas represent the density of occurrences, and the lines represent the available environmental background in the native (green) and invaded (red) ranges; the blue area represents the niche stability, the green area represents niche unfilling, and the red area represent niche expansion; and the arrows represent the centroid shift between the native and invaded realized niches (red solid arrow) and between the native and invaded environmental backgrounds (yellow solid arrow).
Figure 5. Niche dynamics of P. canaliculata in the “native” group versus invaded range in the “invasive” (China) group. The colored areas represent the density of occurrences, and the lines represent the available environmental background in the native (green) and invaded (red) ranges; the blue area represents the niche stability, the green area represents niche unfilling, and the red area represent niche expansion; and the arrows represent the centroid shift between the native and invaded realized niches (red solid arrow) and between the native and invaded environmental backgrounds (yellow solid arrow).
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Figure 6. Niche dynamics of P. canaliculata in the “native” groups versus the invaded range in the “invasive” (China) group in different decades. Colored areas represent the density of occurrences and the lines represent the available environmental background in the native (green) and invaded (red) ranges; the blue area represents the niche stability, the green area represents the niche unfilling, and the red area represents the niche expansion; and the arrows represent the centroid shift between the native and invaded realized niches (red solid arrow) and between the native and invaded environmental backgrounds (yellow solid arrow).
Figure 6. Niche dynamics of P. canaliculata in the “native” groups versus the invaded range in the “invasive” (China) group in different decades. Colored areas represent the density of occurrences and the lines represent the available environmental background in the native (green) and invaded (red) ranges; the blue area represents the niche stability, the green area represents the niche unfilling, and the red area represents the niche expansion; and the arrows represent the centroid shift between the native and invaded realized niches (red solid arrow) and between the native and invaded environmental backgrounds (yellow solid arrow).
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Table 1. 19 Climate variables.
Table 1. 19 Climate variables.
Bio 1annual mean temperatureBio 11mean temperature of the coldest quarter
Bio 2mean diurnal temperature rangeBio 12annual precipitation
Bio 3isothermallyBio 13precipitation of the wettest month
Bio 4temperature seasonalityBio 14precipitation of the driest month
Bio 5maximum temperature of the warmest monthBio 15precipitation seasonality
Bio 6minimum temperature of the coldest monthBio 16precipitation of the wettest quarter
Bio 7temperature of annual rangeBio 17precipitation of the driest quarter
Bio 8mean temperature of the wettest quarterBio 18precipitation of the warmest quarter
Bio 9mean temperature of the driest quarterBio 19precipitation of the coldest quarter
Bio 10mean temperature of the warmest quarter
Table 2. Niche overlap (Schoener’s D), expansion, stability, and unfilling between the “native” and “invasive” (China) ranges of P. canaliculata.
Table 2. Niche overlap (Schoener’s D), expansion, stability, and unfilling between the “native” and “invasive” (China) ranges of P. canaliculata.
Schoener’s DExpansionStabilityUnfilling
All0.04670.19750.80240.1153
2000s0.01750.25110.74880.5315
2010s0.02850.11810.88180.3313
2020s0.04180.15140.84850.1916
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Zhang, R.; Gao, Y.; Wang, R.; Liu, S.; Yang, Q.; Li, Y.; Lin, L. Analyzing Possible Shifts in the Climatic Niche of Pomacea canaliculata Between Native and Chinese Ranges. Biology 2025, 14, 1127. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14091127

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Zhang R, Gao Y, Wang R, Liu S, Yang Q, Li Y, Lin L. Analyzing Possible Shifts in the Climatic Niche of Pomacea canaliculata Between Native and Chinese Ranges. Biology. 2025; 14(9):1127. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14091127

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Zhang, Ran, Yue Gao, Rui Wang, Shigang Liu, Qianqian Yang, Yuan Li, and Longshan Lin. 2025. "Analyzing Possible Shifts in the Climatic Niche of Pomacea canaliculata Between Native and Chinese Ranges" Biology 14, no. 9: 1127. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14091127

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Zhang, R., Gao, Y., Wang, R., Liu, S., Yang, Q., Li, Y., & Lin, L. (2025). Analyzing Possible Shifts in the Climatic Niche of Pomacea canaliculata Between Native and Chinese Ranges. Biology, 14(9), 1127. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14091127

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