Simple Summary
Climate change and human activities are increasingly threatening grassland ecosystems, especially salt-tolerant plants that play key roles in ecological restoration. This study focuses on Puccinellia tenuiflora, a hardy grass widely used to improve saline–alkali soils in northern China. Using an optimized MaxEnt model, we project that over half of the current suitable habitat for this grass may disappear by the 2090s under high emissions, with habitats shifting northeast. Human activities and temperature variations are primary drivers. These findings highlight the potential vulnerability of this important species to future climate change and human activities and provide a scientific basis for its conservation and sustainable use in vegetation restoration projects.
Abstract
Global climate change is accelerating and human pressures are intensifying, exerting profound impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem service functions. The accurate prediction of species distributions has thus become a critical research direction in ecological conservation and restoration. This study selected Puccinellia tenuiflora, a species distributed across China, as its research subject. Utilizing 169 occurrence records and 10 environmental variables, we applied a parameter-optimized MaxEnt model to simulate the species’ current and future (2050s–2090s) potential suitable habitats under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. The results identified the human footprint index (HFI, 43.3%) and temperature seasonality (Bio4, 26.9%) as the dominant factors influencing its distribution. The current suitable area is primarily concentrated in northern China, covering approximately 258.26 × 104 km2. Under all future scenarios, a contraction of suitable habitat is projected, with the most significant reduction observed under SSP585 by the 2090s (a decrease of 56.2%). The distribution centroid is projected to shift northeastward by up to 145.36 km. This study elucidates the response mechanism of P. tenuiflora distribution to climate change and human activities. The projected habitat contraction and spatial displacement highlight the potential vulnerability of this species to future climate change. These findings, derived from a rigorously optimized and spatially validated model, provide a scientific basis for the conservation, reintroduction, and adaptive management of P. tenuiflora under climate change.