Next Article in Journal
High Resolution Shoreline and Shelly Ridge Monitoring over Stormy Winter Events: A Case Study in the Megatidal Bay of Mont-Saint-Michel (France)
Next Article in Special Issue
Performance Simulation of the Transportation Process Risk of Bauxite Carriers Based on the Markov Chain and Cloud Model
Previous Article in Journal
Investigation of Lumped-Mass Method on Coupled Torsional-longitudinal Vibrations for a Marine Propulsion Shaft with Impact Factors
Previous Article in Special Issue
The Efficient Application of an Impulse Source Wavemaker to CFD Simulations
Open AccessArticle

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

1
Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
2
Ship Administration, Pudong Maritime Safety Administration, Shanghai 200135, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2019, 7(4), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7040096
Received: 24 February 2019 / Revised: 22 March 2019 / Accepted: 26 March 2019 / Published: 4 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Marine Dynamic Simulation)
Many causal factors to marine traffic accidents (MTAs) influence each other and have associated effects. It is necessary to quantify the correlation path mode of these factors to improve accident prevention measures and their effects. In the application of human factors to accident mechanisms, the complex structural chains on causes to MTA systems were analyzed by combining the human failure analysis and classification system (HFACS) with theoretical structural equation modeling (SEM). First, the accident causation model was established as a human error analysis classification in sight of a MTA, and the constituent elements of the causes of the accident were conducted. Second, a hypothetical model of human factors classification was proposed by applying the practice of the structural model. Third, with the data resources from ship accident cases, this hypothetical model was discussed and simulated, and as a result, the relationship path dependency mode between the latent independent variable of the accident was quantitatively analyzed based on the observed dependent variable of human behavior. Application examples show that relationships in the HFACS are verified and in line with the path developing mode, and resource management factors have a pronounced influence and a strong relevance to the causal chain of the accidents. Appropriate algorithms for the theoretical model can be used to numerically understand the safety performance of marine traffic systems under different parameters through mathematical analysis. Hierarchical assumptions in the HFACS model are quantitatively verified. View Full-Text
Keywords: maritime traffic; marine accident; accident causation theory; human factor; structural equation modeling; HFACS; path dependency maritime traffic; marine accident; accident causation theory; human factor; structural equation modeling; HFACS; path dependency
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Hu, S.; Li, Z.; Xi, Y.; Gu, X.; Zhang, X. Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2019, 7, 96.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop