Assessing the Connectivity Reliability of a Maritime Transport Network: A Case of Imported Crude Oil in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. The Research of MTN
2.2. Connectivity Reliability
2.3. Research Gaps and Contributions
- (1)
- An integrated assessment index for node importance is established and a method to identify key nodes in COMTN is developed to facilitate the prioritization of critical nodes within the network.
- (2)
- A model of CR specifically designed for the COMTN is developed. This model evaluates the overall reliability of the network and the reliability of individual routes within it. By overcoming the shortcomings of relying solely on a single index to capture the potential issues within the network, this model offers a comprehensive and objective analysis of the CR of the imported COMTN.
- (3)
- Analysis of the effects of different attacks on the imported COMTN is carried out. This includes assessing the reliability of different maritime transport routes when subjected to attacks and examining the impacts resulting from the failure of critical nodes. Based on these findings, targeted and effective countermeasures and recommendations are formulated to address the issue of network collapse following the failure of specific nodes.
3. Methodology
3.1. Topology Features of CNs
- (1)
- Degree of nodes
- (2)
- Node strength
- (3)
- Betweenness centrality
- (4)
- Eigenvector centrality
3.2. Node Importance Assessment Model
3.2.1. Weighted Leader Rank
3.2.2. Comprehensive Assessment Indicators
3.3. Modelling Network Connectivity Reliability
3.3.1. Network Connectivity Reliability Model
- (1)
- The nodes in the model are assumed to have two states: fully operational or completely failed.
- (2)
- The edges connecting the nodes, i.e., the shipping routes, are assumed to be in normal condition.
- (3)
- The node failures are independent of other port nodes, and the destination nodes are considered immune to failure.
- (1)
- The pairs of CR: This refers to the probability of maintaining connectivity between pairs in the network when certain nodes are completely disconnected.
- (2)
- The shipping route of CR: The imported COMTN is divided into several shipping routes based on the geographical distribution of ports in importing countries. The specific shipping route of CR is defined as the weighted average of the CR of all pairs within that route when some nodes in the network are completely disconnected. The weights correspond to the share of crude oil transport undertaken by each pair.
- (3)
- CR of the entire imported COMTN: It represents the weighted average of the CR of all pairs in the network when some nodes are completely disconnected. The weights are determined by the share of crude oil imports carried by each pair.
3.3.2. Model Construction under Different Attack Modes
- (1)
- Constructing a random attack model
- (2)
- Construction of the random attack model
- (3)
- Construction of the deliberate attack model
- (4)
- Solution of the deliberate attack model
4. Calculation Results and Discussion
4.1. China’s Imported COMTN
4.2. Significant Node Ranking Results
4.2.1. Degree, Node Strength, Betweenness Centrality, Leader Rank Algorithm Results
4.2.2. Comprehensive Assessment Indicators
4.3. Reliability Results and Analysis
4.3.1. Random Attack Results and Analysis
4.3.2. Deliberate Attack Results and Analysis
4.3.3. Comparison of the Results and Analysis of the Two Attack Patterns
4.4. Measures and Recommendations
- (1)
- Strengthen emergency management measures at key points and give focused protection.
- (2)
- Exploring alternatives at key maritime nodes and tapping new transport routes.
- (3)
- Responding positively to international cooperation and exhibiting the power of China.
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Serial Number | Node Number | Serial Number | Node Number |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Strait of Malacca (SOM) | 15 | UK |
2 | Taiwan Strait (TS) | 16 | Angola (AN) |
3 | Bashi Strait (BS) | 17 | Saudi Arabia (SA) |
4 | Sunda Strait (SS) | 18 | Congo (CG) |
5 | Lombok Sela (LS) | 19 | Malaysia (MA) |
6 | Strait of Hormuz (SOH) | 20 | Iraq (IR) |
7 | Strait of Gibraltar (SOG) | 21 | Libya (LI) |
8 | The Mandab Strait (TMS) | 22 | Kuwait (KU) |
9 | Suez Canal (SC) | 23 | ARE (AR) |
10 | Panama Canal (PC) | 24 | US |
11 | Brazil (BR) | 25 | Sudan (SU) |
12 | Oman (OM) | 26 | Qatar (QA) |
13 | Norway (NO) | 27 | China (CN) |
14 | Colombia (CO) |
Crude Oil Maritime Transport Access | Crude Oil Imports Source Countries | Crude Oil Imports Routes | Import Share |
---|---|---|---|
Middle East–China Route | Saudi Arabia | Port of origin—SOH—SOM/SS/LS—TS/BS—CN | 21.5% |
Iraq | 11.5% | ||
United Arab Emirates | 6.3% | ||
Kuwait | 6.7% | ||
Qatar | 2.0% | ||
Oman | Port of origin—SOM/SS/LS—TS/BS—CN | 13.0% | |
Africa–China Route | Angola | Port of origin—Cape of Good Hope -SOM/SS/LS—TS/BS—CN | 8.0% |
Congo | 3.0% | ||
Libya | Port of origin—SC—TMS—SOM/SS/LS—TS/BS—CN; Port of origin—SOG—Cape of Good Hope—SOM/SS/LS—TS/BS—CN | 1.0% | |
Sudan | Port of origin—TMS—SOM/SS/LS—TS/BS—CN | 3.0% | |
America–China Route | Brazil | Port of origin—PC—CN; Port of origin—Cape of Good Hope—SOM/LS/SS—TS/BS—CN | 6.0% |
Colombia | 2.0% | ||
USA | Port of origin—CN | 4.0% | |
Europe–China Route | Norway | Port of origin—SOG—SC—TMS—SOM/SS/LS—TS/BS—CN; Port of origin—Cape of Good Hope—SOM/SS/LS—TS/BS—CN; Port of origin—CN | 2.4% |
UK | 1.6% | ||
South East Asia–China Route | Malaysia | Port of origin—TS/BS—CN | 8.0% |
Node | Degree | Work Intensity | Centrality | Leader Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
SOM | 12 | 0.855 | 0.027 | 2.840 |
SOH | 8 | 0.480 | 0.046 | 1.360 |
SS | 12 | 0.093 | 0.027 | 2.840 |
LS | 12 | 0.093 | 0.027 | 2.840 |
TS | 5 | 0.468 | 0.015 | 3.620 |
BS | 5 | 0.468 | 0.015 | 3.620 |
SOG | 7 | 0.023 | 0.015 | 0.970 |
TMS | 5 | 0.047 | 0.018 | 1.030 |
BR | 4 | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
OM | 3 | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
NO | 4 | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
CO | 4 | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
UK | 4 | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
AN | 3 | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
SA | 1 | 0.215 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
CG | 3 | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
PC | 3 | 0.025 | 0.003 | 0.780 |
SC | 3 | 0.021 | 0.006 | 0.890 |
IR | 2 | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
MA | 1 | 0.115 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
LI | 2 | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
KU | 1 | 0.067 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
AR | 1 | 0.063 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
US | 1 | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
SU | 1 | 0.036 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
QA | 1 | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.388 |
Node | Scores | Ranking | Node | Scores | Ranking |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SOM | 0.879 | 1 | CO | 0.052 | 14 |
TS | 0.738 | 2 | UK | 0.052 | 14 |
BS | 0.738 | 2 | AN | 0.052 | 14 |
SS | 0.705 | 3 | SA | 0.047 | 17 |
LS | 0.705 | 3 | CG | 0.041 | 18 |
SOH | 0.575 | 6 | MA | 0.035 | 19 |
SOG | 0.264 | 7 | IR | 0.023 | 20 |
TMS | 0.256 | 8 | LI | 0.017 | 21 |
SC | 0.142 | 9 | KU | 0.012 | 22 |
PC | 0.113 | 10 | AR | 0.012 | 22 |
BR | 0.064 | 11 | US | 0.006 | 24 |
OM | 0.064 | 11 | SU | 0.006 | 24 |
NO | 0.058 | 13 | QA | 0 | 26 |
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Wang, J.; Wang, X.; Feng, Y.; Cao, Y.; Guo, Z.; Liu, Z. Assessing the Connectivity Reliability of a Maritime Transport Network: A Case of Imported Crude Oil in China. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11, 1597. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11081597
Wang J, Wang X, Feng Y, Cao Y, Guo Z, Liu Z. Assessing the Connectivity Reliability of a Maritime Transport Network: A Case of Imported Crude Oil in China. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2023; 11(8):1597. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11081597
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Jiashi, Xinjian Wang, Yinwei Feng, Yuhao Cao, Zicheng Guo, and Zhengjiang Liu. 2023. "Assessing the Connectivity Reliability of a Maritime Transport Network: A Case of Imported Crude Oil in China" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 11, no. 8: 1597. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11081597
APA StyleWang, J., Wang, X., Feng, Y., Cao, Y., Guo, Z., & Liu, Z. (2023). Assessing the Connectivity Reliability of a Maritime Transport Network: A Case of Imported Crude Oil in China. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 11(8), 1597. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11081597