Multi-Dimensional Monitoring of Agricultural Drought at the Field Scale

The causes of agricultural drought are complex, and its actual occurrence process is often characterized by rapid onset in terms of time and small scale in terms of space. Monitoring agricultural drought using satellite remote sensing with low spatial resolution makes it difficult to accurately capture the details of small-scale drought events. High-resolution satellite remote sensing has relatively long revisit cycles, making it difficult to capture the rapid evolution of drought conditions. Furthermore, the occurrence of agricultural drought is linked to multiple factors including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil properties, and crop physiological characteristics. Consequently, relying on a single variable or indicator is insufficient for multidimensional monitoring of agricultural drought. This study takes Hebi City, Henan Province as the research area. It uses Sentinel-1 satellite data (HV, VV), Sentinel-2 data (NDVI, B2, B11), elevation, slope, aspect, and GPM precipitation data from 2019 to 2024 as independent variables. Three machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Random Forest-Recursive Feature Elimination (RF-RFE), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were employed to construct a multi-dimensional agricultural drought monitoring model at the field scale. Additionally, the study verified the sensitivity of different environmental variables to agricultural drought monitoring and analyzed the accuracy performance of different machine learning algorithms in agricultural drought monitoring. The research results indicate that under the condition of full-factor input, all three models exhibit the optimal predictive performance. Among them, the XGBoost model performs the best, with the smallest Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) of 0.45 and the highest Correlation Coefficient (R) of 0.79. The absence of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data impairs the models’ ability to capture the patterns of key features, which in turn leads to a reduction in predictive accuracy. Meanwhile, there is a significant correlation between model performance and sample size. Ultimately, the constructed XGBoost model takes the lead with an accuracy of 89%, while the accuracies of Random Forest (RF) and Random Forest-Recursive Feature Elimination (RF-RFE) are 88% and 86%, respectively. Based on these three drought monitoring models, this study further monitored a drought event that occurred in Hebi City in 2023, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural drought in Hebi City, and applied the Mann–Kendall test for time series analysis, aiming to identify the abrupt change process of agricultural drought. Meanwhile, on the basis of the research results, the feasibility of verifying drought occurrence using irrigation signals was discussed, and the potential reasons for the significantly lower drought occurrence probability in the western mountainous areas of the study region were analyzed.