Identifying Climate Stress Thresholds for Sustaining Cropland Productivity Across Cropping Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions

Jiang, Yan; Wang, Jiaolong; Yi, Lang; Chen, Xiaoping; Peng, Yuanying; Luo, Huiyu

doi:10.3390/agriculture16101076

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Open AccessArticle

Identifying Climate Stress Thresholds for Sustaining Cropland Productivity Across Cropping Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions

by

Yan Jiang

^1,†

,

Jiaolong Wang

^1,†,

Lang Yi

^2,*,

Xiaoping Chen

³,

Yuanying Peng

^4,*

and

Huiyu Luo

⁵

¹

Department of Materials and Chemical Engineering, Pingxiang University, Pingxiang 337055, China

²

College of Economics and Geography, Hunan University of Finance and Economics, Changsha 410205, China

³

College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China

⁴

College of Arts and Sciences, Lewis University, Romeoville, IL 60446, USA

⁵

Department of Information and Computer Engineering, Pingxiang University, Pingxiang 337055, China

^*

Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.

^†

These authors contributed equally to this work.

Agriculture 2026, 16(10), 1076; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16101076

Submission received: 7 April 2026 / Revised: 8 May 2026 / Accepted: 11 May 2026 / Published: 14 May 2026

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agriculture and Global Climate Change: Threats, Challenges and Adaptations)

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Abstract

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, posing significant challenges to crop productivity and agroclimatic management in subtropical regions. However, quantitative insights into how different cropping systems respond to climate extremes remain limited. In this study, crop net primary productivity (CNPP) of two representative cropping systems, early–late rice (ER–LR) and dry rapeseed–sweet potato (DR–SP), was analyzed in Pingxiang, a typical subtropical agricultural region of China. Nineteen extreme temperature and precipitation indices were evaluated using an integrated Trend–Prediction–Sensitivity–Threshold (TPST) framework combining statistical and machine learning approaches. CNPP exhibited an upward trend (slope = 4.29 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) from 2000 to 2023, with ER–LR showing faster growth (slope = 4.54 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) and higher stability (high-volatility area: 1.25%) than DR–SP (slope = 4.11 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹; 4.94%). Temperature extremes were the dominant drivers, exhibiting nonlinear responses with threshold effects. DR–SP was more climate-sensitive, while ER–LR showed greater tolerance, highlighting the role of cropping systems in enhancing resilience. The TPST framework provides a transferable approach for assessing agroecosystem productivity responses to climate extremes and supports climate-resilient cropland management in subtropical regions.

Keywords: cropland net primary productivity (CNPP); cropping systems; climate extremes; threshold effects; agroecosystem resilience; subtropical agriculture

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MDPI and ACS Style

Jiang, Y.; Wang, J.; Yi, L.; Chen, X.; Peng, Y.; Luo, H. Identifying Climate Stress Thresholds for Sustaining Cropland Productivity Across Cropping Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions. Agriculture 2026, 16, 1076. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16101076

AMA Style

Jiang Y, Wang J, Yi L, Chen X, Peng Y, Luo H. Identifying Climate Stress Thresholds for Sustaining Cropland Productivity Across Cropping Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions. Agriculture. 2026; 16(10):1076. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16101076

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jiang, Yan, Jiaolong Wang, Lang Yi, Xiaoping Chen, Yuanying Peng, and Huiyu Luo. 2026. "Identifying Climate Stress Thresholds for Sustaining Cropland Productivity Across Cropping Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions" Agriculture 16, no. 10: 1076. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16101076

APA Style

Jiang, Y., Wang, J., Yi, L., Chen, X., Peng, Y., & Luo, H. (2026). Identifying Climate Stress Thresholds for Sustaining Cropland Productivity Across Cropping Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions. Agriculture, 16(10), 1076. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16101076

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Identifying Climate Stress Thresholds for Sustaining Cropland Productivity Across Cropping Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions

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