Dynamically Updated Irrigation Canal Scheduling Rules Based on Risk Hedging

Dynamic canal-system scheduling faces the fundamental challenge of determining the optimal reduction in the current period’s water allocation to reserve sufficient water for remaining periods, thereby hedging against potentially greater future water shortages. Although forecast information has been widely incorporated to address this hedging problem, its effectiveness is heavily dependent on forecast accuracy. Integrating abundant historical canal scheduling data with forecast information provides a promising pathway to improve scheduling performance, yet relevant studies remain limited. This study introduces the concept of Target Residual Lump-Sum Water Quota (TRLSWQ) for each time interval and develops a novel “Bi-level, Two-stage” (BT) model for dynamically updated canal-system scheduling that jointly leverages TRLSWQ and forecast information. The model defines clear canal scheduling rules and effectively adapts to the hierarchical structure in canal system scheduling. The model is applied to the summer–autumn irrigation scheduling of the Yongji main canal and six associated sub-canals in the Hetao Irrigation Area, Inner Mongolia, China. The results indicate that compared with the conventional model, the BT model reduces the total water shortage index of sub-canals from 40.81 to 31.44 (a decrease of 22.9%) and increases the utilization rate of the water quota from 89.3% to 92.9% (an increase of 3.9%). Furthermore, this study clarifies the mechanism of canal scheduling deviations caused by forecast errors: early-stage rainfall under-forecasting induces excessive early-stage allocation, leaving no water for later periods, whereas early-stage over-forecasting leads to withheld early allocation and unused residual lump-sum quota in later stages. The BT model effectively balances shortage risks between current and future periods and offers a practical and robust strategy for improving dynamic canal scheduling in irrigation districts.