Research on Driving Forces of Spatiotemporal Patterns in Cotton Cultivation Considering Spatial Heterogeneity

Cotton is increasingly important in global development. The exploration of drivers of spatiotemporal patterns for cotton planting, considering spatial heterogeneity, is essential for optimizing its distribution and supporting sustainable production. This study combined the locally explained stratified heterogeneity (LESH) model with geographically weighted regression (GWR) to investigate the factors shaping cotton-planting patterns in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM), China, from 2000 to 2020. Cotton distribution was derived from long-term Landsat image series, and its expansion showed an average annual growth rate of 2.10 × 10³ km², with intensive cultivation primarily distributed across the central and western counties. The dominant drivers of cotton distribution were elevation (ELE), sunshine duration (SD), slope (SLO), temperature (TEM), runoff (RO), and gross domestic product (GDP). ELE explained about 40% of the spatial heterogeneity. SD showed a declining influence, SLO remained stable, TEM increased in importance, and GDP exhibited a progressive upward trend, although weaker. Moreover, nonlinear weakening interactions, especially between ELE and other factors, as well as between socio-economic and climatic variables, substantially enhanced explanatory power. These findings highlight the significance of accounting for spatial heterogeneity and factor interactions in guiding the spatial optimization and sustainable management of cotton cultivation.