MODIS NDVI Multi-Temporal Analysis Confirms Farmer Perceptions on Seasonality Variations Affecting Apple Orchards in Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Local Farmer Interviews
3.2. Land Use Land Cover (LULC)
3.3. Time Series Analysis of the MODIS NDVI Data
Time Series and Extraction of Phenological Matrix
3.4. MODIS Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and Rainfall
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Farmers’ Perceptions
4.2. LULC Assessment
4.3. Variability in Apple Phenology and Seasonality Based on MODIS NDVI Time Series Analysis
4.4. Correlation between Seasonality, NDSI and Rainfall
4.5. Main Observations, Policy Recommendations and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Class | Built Up Area | Agriculture | Plantation | Forest | Scrub | Grassland | Barren Land | Water | Snow Cover | Total | User’s Accuracy (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Built up area | 728 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 55 | 42 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 922 | 78.95 |
Agriculture | 42 | 839 | 58 | 23 | 0 | 68 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1057 | 79.38 |
Plantation | 18 | 43 | 1415 | 97 | 0 | 55 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1668 | 84.83 |
Forest | 0 | 18 | 104 | 1746 | 74 | 91 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 2066 | 84.51 |
Scrub | 63 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 709 | 61 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 989 | 71.68 |
Grassland | 50 | 51 | 48 | 76 | 78 | 2665 | 198 | 42 | 0 | 3208 | 83.07 |
Barren land | 57 | 22 | 42 | 37 | 83 | 224 | 2436 | 56 | 38 | 2995 | 81.34 |
Water | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 43 | 940 | 78 | 1113 | 84.46 |
Snow cover | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 56 | 62 | 2078 | 2274 | 91.38 |
Total | 958 | 1007 | 1679 | 2047 | 999 | 3336 | 2972 | 1100 | 2194 | 16,292 | |
Producer’s accuracy (%) | 75.99 | 83.32 | 84.28 | 85.30 | 70.97 | 79.88 | 81.96 | 85.45 | 94.71 |
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Agriscape Change/Impact | Farmer Perceptions | % Age of Farmers |
---|---|---|
Winter chill reduction for the apple crop | Decrease in chilling hours, especially in locations KR-1, 2, and 3. Overall yield impacted for years when snowfall is less. | 70 |
Seasonal variations | Seasonal variations are much higher than a decade back at nearly all altitudes, with the maximum at lower altitudes. | 100 |
Loss of water resource for irrigation | Decrease of water resources in almost all locations, especially at lower altitudes where large and small hydro have taken over irrigation channels. | 80 |
Apple yield reduction | Farmers from KR1 and 2 reported loss of production due to landslides and floods. Others reported an increase. | 40 |
Apple production per tree | Apple production per tree has gone down, thinning of flowers during SOS, blasting for construction affected recent yields. | 90 |
Apple quality | KR2 reported scab disease (caused by the fungus Cladosporium cucumerinum) lowering its market value, attributed to seasonal change and water availability. | 15 |
Presence of apple orchards at high altitudes. | There is emergence of apple orchards at higher altitudes, which was originally a cold desert. Climatic changes are shifting apple orchards to higher zones, and people living at those altitudes seemed to be happy with this change. | 100 |
Reduced snowfall in the lower elevation zones | Decrease and variation in snowfall in the KR1 region. More acceptability in this region for the new cultivar called ‘root stock apple,’ which needs comparatively less chilling hours. | 90 |
Variability in the type of precipitation | There is increased variability in the type of precipitation (hail/snow). Loss of apple production when snowfall was less or was replaced by hail (KR1, 2, and 3). | 70 |
Changes in climate and extreme events | There are increased landslides and extreme events, especially floods. Changes in snowfall pattern. | 100 |
Linkages of SOS with snowfall. | Snowfall in the later months of spring delays the flowering, thus delaying SOS. Heavy snowfall is needed for good apple produce. Low altitude regions are increasingly facing difficulties during some seasons due to a lack of and variability in snowfall. | 100 |
Financial loss due to loss of yield | KR2 and 3 reported financial losses as a result of developmental activities, floods, and landslides. | 20 |
Preference for new cultivar | KR1, 2, and 3 were keen to accept newer cultivars requiring less chilling hours. | 50 |
Class No. | LULC Class Type | Area in km2 | % |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Built up area | 17.13 | 0.27 |
2 | Agriculture | 18.49 | 0.29 |
3 | Plantation | 154.46 | 2.40 |
4 | Forest | 6386.8 | 9.90 |
5 | Scrub | 187.11 | 2.90 |
6 | Grassland | 1941.36 | 30.11 |
7 | Barren land | 1886.64 | 29.26 |
8 | Water | 64.71 | 1.00 |
9 | Snow cover | 1540.00 | 23.88 |
Total | 6448.58 | 100 |
Site | Elevation (m amsl) | SOS Range | Var. | POS Range | Var. | LOS Range | Var. | EOS Range | Var. | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | ||||||
KR1 (Nichar) | 2014 | 12 Apr | 17 May | 93.46 | 23 Jul | 10 Sep | 226.53 | 167 | 208 | 124.07 | 22 Oct | 12 Nov | 45.30 |
KR2 (Sangla) | 2723 | 2 May | 24 May | 45.88 | 11 Aug | 12 Sep | 75.81 | 166 | 193 | 67.88 | 30 Oct | 25 Nov | 41.48 |
KR3 (Kalpa) | 2775 | 20 Apr | 26 May | 121.61 | 7 Aug | 25 Aug | 29.83 | 180 | 208 | 67.77 | 1 Nov | 10 Dec | 86.47 |
KR4 (Moorang) | 2503 | 23 Apr | 5 May | 12.81 | 23 Jul | 24 Aug | 67.19 | 184 | 211 | 57.74 | 30 Oct | 29 Nov | 58.94 |
KR5 (Ropa) | 3163 | 21 Apr | 6 Jun | 167.44 | 4 Aug | 14 Sep | 149.45 | 169 | 222 | 189.61 | 8 Nov | 23 Dec | 184.20 |
KR6 (Namgia Khas) | 2800 | 27 Apr | 21 May | 54.09 | 17 Jul | 12 Sep | 236.32 | 182 | 214 | 69.93 | 9 Nov | 11 Dec | 84.69 |
KR7 (Chango) | 3066 | 12 May | 2 Jun | 37.73 | 17 Jul | 20 Aug | 91.82 | 162 | 180 | 31.45 | 1 Nov | 20 Nov | 29.32 |
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Gupta, H.; Kaur, L.; Asra, M.; Avtar, R.; Reddy, C.S. MODIS NDVI Multi-Temporal Analysis Confirms Farmer Perceptions on Seasonality Variations Affecting Apple Orchards in Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh. Agriculture 2021, 11, 724. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11080724
Gupta H, Kaur L, Asra M, Avtar R, Reddy CS. MODIS NDVI Multi-Temporal Analysis Confirms Farmer Perceptions on Seasonality Variations Affecting Apple Orchards in Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh. Agriculture. 2021; 11(8):724. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11080724
Chicago/Turabian StyleGupta, Himangana, Lakhvinder Kaur, Mahbooba Asra, Ram Avtar, and C. Sudhakar Reddy. 2021. "MODIS NDVI Multi-Temporal Analysis Confirms Farmer Perceptions on Seasonality Variations Affecting Apple Orchards in Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh" Agriculture 11, no. 8: 724. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11080724