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Open AccessArticle

Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model

1
Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum—University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy
2
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, 40127 Bologna, Italy
3
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Alma Mater Studiorum—University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy
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Department of Political Science, LUISS—Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli, 00197 Rome, Italy
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Department of Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, Tuscia University, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
6
Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
7
The Interdisciplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9(5), 1492; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9051492
Received: 18 April 2020 / Revised: 7 May 2020 / Accepted: 13 May 2020 / Published: 15 May 2020
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of 17 April 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world’s centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic. View Full-Text
Keywords: coronavirus; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; pandemic; public health intervention; lockdown; resurgence; forecasting; mathematical modelling; SEIR model coronavirus; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; pandemic; public health intervention; lockdown; resurgence; forecasting; mathematical modelling; SEIR model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Reno, C.; Lenzi, J.; Navarra, A.; Barelli, E.; Gori, D.; Lanza, A.; Valentini, R.; Tang, B.; Fantini, M.P. Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 1492.

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