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Article

Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patients

by
Ji Hun Lee
1,†,
Seung Kak Shin
2,†,
Seong Hee Kang
3,4,†,
Tae Hyung Kim
1,5,*,
Hyung Joon Yim
1,5,*,
Sun Young Yim
1,5,
Young-Sun Lee
1,5,†,
Young Kul Jung
1,5,
Ji Hoon Kim
1,5,
Yeon Seok Seo
1,5,
Jong Eun Yeon
1,5,
Oh Sang Kwon
2,
Soon Ho Um
1,5 and
Kwan Soo Byun
1,5
1
Department of Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul 02841, Korea
2
Department of Internal Medicine, Gachon University Gil Medical Center, Gachon University College of Medicine, Incheon 21565, Korea
3
Department of Internal Medicine, Inje University College of Medicine, Seoul 01757, Korea
4
Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju 26426, Korea
5
Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul 02841, Korea
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors contributed equally to this work.
J. Clin. Med. 2022, 11(22), 6613; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11226613
Submission received: 28 September 2022 / Revised: 31 October 2022 / Accepted: 2 November 2022 / Published: 8 November 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Gastroenterology & Hepatopancreatobiliary Medicine)
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Abstract

Predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a key clinical issue in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The aim of this study was to develop a precise and simple HCC risk score for up to 10 years. A total of 1895 CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were retrospectively recruited and randomized into derivation (n = 1239) and validation cohorts (n = 656). Variables proven to be independent risk factors for HCC in the derivation cohort were used to develop the prediction model. The ACCESS-HCC model included five variables (age, cirrhosis, consumption of ethanol, liver stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase). Areas under curves were 0.798, 0.762, and 0.883 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively, which were higher than those of other prediction models. The scores were categorized according to significantly different HCC incidences: 0–4, low; 5–8, intermediate; and 9–14, high-risk. The annual incidence rates were 0.5%, 3.2%, and 11.3%, respectively. The performance of this model was validated in an independent cohort. The ACCESS-HCC model shows improved long-term prediction and provides three distinct risk categories for HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. Further research is needed for external validation using larger cohorts.
Keywords: antiviral agent; hepatitis B virus; hepatocellular carcinoma; liver cirrhosis; risk factors antiviral agent; hepatitis B virus; hepatocellular carcinoma; liver cirrhosis; risk factors

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MDPI and ACS Style

Lee, J.H.; Shin, S.K.; Kang, S.H.; Kim, T.H.; Yim, H.J.; Yim, S.Y.; Lee, Y.-S.; Jung, Y.K.; Kim, J.H.; Seo, Y.S.; et al. Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patients. J. Clin. Med. 2022, 11, 6613. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11226613

AMA Style

Lee JH, Shin SK, Kang SH, Kim TH, Yim HJ, Yim SY, Lee Y-S, Jung YK, Kim JH, Seo YS, et al. Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patients. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2022; 11(22):6613. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11226613

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lee, Ji Hun, Seung Kak Shin, Seong Hee Kang, Tae Hyung Kim, Hyung Joon Yim, Sun Young Yim, Young-Sun Lee, Young Kul Jung, Ji Hoon Kim, Yeon Seok Seo, and et al. 2022. "Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patients" Journal of Clinical Medicine 11, no. 22: 6613. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11226613

APA Style

Lee, J. H., Shin, S. K., Kang, S. H., Kim, T. H., Yim, H. J., Yim, S. Y., Lee, Y.-S., Jung, Y. K., Kim, J. H., Seo, Y. S., Yeon, J. E., Kwon, O. S., Um, S. H., & Byun, K. S. (2022). Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patients. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 11(22), 6613. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11226613

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