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An Updated Review of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines and the Importance of Effective Vaccination Programs in Pandemic Times
Article

Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities—An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation

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Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
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dwh GmbH, dwh Simulation Services, Neustiftgasse 57–59, A-1070 Vienna, Austria
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Institute of Information Systems Engineering, TU Wien, Favoritenstraße 11, A-1050 Vienna, Austria
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Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, University of Cape Town, Barnard Fuller Building, Anzio Rd, Observatory, Cape Town 7935, South Africa
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Division for Quantitative Methods in Public Health and Health Services Research, Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT—University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
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Department of Internal Medicine II, Medical University of Innsbruck, Anichstraße 35, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
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Center of Pathophysiology, Infectiology & Immunology (OEL), Institute of Specific Prophylaxis and Tropical Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, Kinderspitalgasse 15, 1090 Vienna, Austria
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Center of Virology, Medical University of Vienna, Kinderspitalgasse 15, 1090 Vienna, Austria
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UNESCO Chair on Bioethics, Medical University of Vienna, Waehringerstrasse 25, 1090 Vienna, Austria
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Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, Stubenring 1, 1010 Vienna, Austria
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Austrian National Public Health Institute/Gesundheit Österreich GmbH, Stubenring 6, 1010 Vienna, Austria
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Austrian Federation of Social Insurances, Kundmanngasse 21, 1030 Vienna, Austria
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Department of Mathematics, TU Kaiserslautern, Gottlieb-Daimler-Straße 48, 67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany
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Association for Decision Support for Health Policy and Planning, DEXHELPP, Neustiftgasse 57–59, A-1070 Vienna, Austria
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Institute for Technology Assessment and Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 101 Merrimac St., Boston, MA 02114, USA
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Center for Health Decision Science, Departments of Epidemiology and Health Policy & Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 718 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Natalie Prow
Vaccines 2021, 9(5), 434; https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9050434
Received: 2 April 2021 / Revised: 21 April 2021 / Accepted: 22 April 2021 / Published: 27 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Section COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination)
(1) Background: The Austrian supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited for now. We aim to provide evidence-based guidance to the authorities in order to minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in Austria. (2) Methods: We used a dynamic agent-based population model to compare different vaccination strategies targeted to the elderly (65 ≥ years), middle aged (45–64 years), younger (15–44 years), vulnerable (risk of severe disease due to comorbidities), and healthcare workers (HCW). First, outcomes were optimized for an initially available vaccine batch for 200,000 individuals. Second, stepwise optimization was performed deriving a prioritization sequence for 2.45 million individuals, maximizing the reduction in total hospitalizations and deaths compared to no vaccination. We considered sterilizing and non-sterilizing immunity, assuming a 70% effectiveness. (3) Results: Maximum reduction of hospitalizations and deaths was achieved by starting vaccination with the elderly and vulnerable followed by middle-aged, HCW, and younger individuals. Optimizations for vaccinating 2.45 million individuals yielded the same prioritization and avoided approximately one third of deaths and hospitalizations. Starting vaccination with HCW leads to slightly smaller reductions but maximizes occupational safety. (4) Conclusion: To minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, our study shows that elderly and vulnerable persons should be prioritized for vaccination until further vaccines are available. View Full-Text
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; vaccination; prioritization; vaccination strategy; optimization; decision-analytic modeling; agent-based simulation; health policy decision making; policy guidance SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; vaccination; prioritization; vaccination strategy; optimization; decision-analytic modeling; agent-based simulation; health policy decision making; policy guidance
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MDPI and ACS Style

Jahn, B.; Sroczynski, G.; Bicher, M.; Rippinger, C.; Mühlberger, N.; Santamaria, J.; Urach, C.; Schomaker, M.; Stojkov, I.; Schmid, D.; Weiss, G.; Wiedermann, U.; Redlberger-Fritz, M.; Druml, C.; Kretzschmar, M.; Paulke-Korinek, M.; Ostermann, H.; Czasch, C.; Endel, G.; Bock, W.; Popper, N.; Siebert, U. Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities—An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation. Vaccines 2021, 9, 434. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9050434

AMA Style

Jahn B, Sroczynski G, Bicher M, Rippinger C, Mühlberger N, Santamaria J, Urach C, Schomaker M, Stojkov I, Schmid D, Weiss G, Wiedermann U, Redlberger-Fritz M, Druml C, Kretzschmar M, Paulke-Korinek M, Ostermann H, Czasch C, Endel G, Bock W, Popper N, Siebert U. Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities—An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation. Vaccines. 2021; 9(5):434. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9050434

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jahn, Beate, Gaby Sroczynski, Martin Bicher, Claire Rippinger, Nikolai Mühlberger, Júlia Santamaria, Christoph Urach, Michael Schomaker, Igor Stojkov, Daniela Schmid, Günter Weiss, Ursula Wiedermann, Monika Redlberger-Fritz, Christiane Druml, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Maria Paulke-Korinek, Herwig Ostermann, Caroline Czasch, Gottfried Endel, Wolfgang Bock, Nikolas Popper, and Uwe Siebert. 2021. "Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities—An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation" Vaccines 9, no. 5: 434. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9050434

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