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Open AccessArticle

From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival

1
Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, West Pomeranian University of Technology, 71-550 Szczecin, Poland
2
Gamification Group, Faculty of Information Technology and Communication Sciences, Tampere University, 33100 Tampere, Finland
3
Gamification Group, Faculty of Humanities, University of Turku, 20500 Turku, Finland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Appl. Sci. 2019, 9(7), 1268; https://doi.org/10.3390/app9071268
Received: 21 December 2018 / Revised: 12 March 2019 / Accepted: 18 March 2019 / Published: 27 March 2019
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Abstract

One of the major questions in the study of economics, logistics, and business forecasting is the measurement and prediction of value creation, distribution, and lifetime in the form of goods. In ”real” economies, a perfect model for the circulation of goods is impossible. However, virtual realities and economies pose a new frontier for the broad study of economics, since every good and transaction can be accurately tracked. Therefore, models that predict goods’ circulation can be tested and confirmed before their introduction to ”real life” and other scenarios. The present study is focused on the characteristics of early-stage adopters for virtual goods, and how they predict the lifespan of the goods. We employ machine learning and decision trees as the basis of our prediction models. Results provide evidence that the prediction of the lifespan of virtual objects is possible based just on data from early holders of those objects. Overall, communication and social activity are the main drivers for the effective propagation of virtual goods, and they are the most expected characteristics of early adopters. View Full-Text
Keywords: virtual goods; product life span; innovation diffusion; virtual world; social networks virtual goods; product life span; innovation diffusion; virtual world; social networks
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Bortko, K.; Pazura, P.; Hamari, J.; Bartków, P.; Jankowski, J. From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival. Appl. Sci. 2019, 9, 1268.

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