Reliability and Risk in Space-Based Data Centers: A Lifecycle Assessment of Orbital Cloud Infrastructure

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and cloud computing is straining terrestrial data center infrastructure, motivating exploration of space-based data centers (SBDCs) as a scalable and energy-efficient alternative. While orbital platforms offer unique advantages, including continuous solar energy, radiative cooling, and global coverage, their practical deployment is constrained by unresolved reliability challenges across the mission lifecycle. This study presents a lifecycle-oriented reliability and risk assessment for SBDCs spanning launch, orbital operation, maintenance, and end-of-life phases, using a structured systems-level analysis of failure modes and operational dependencies. This paper focuses on compute-centric SBDC architectures, treating storage solely as a supporting resource. We identify and classify space-environment-specific risks, including launch-induced mechanical stress, radiation-driven degradation, thermal extremes, and single points of failure in power and communication subsystems. By integrating engineering constraints with economic considerations, we develop a unified risk-chain framework that shows how reliability limitations propagate from component design to system cost and operational viability. The analysis reveals a critical trade-off: achieving terrestrial-grade reliability in orbit requires substantial redundancy and radiation hardening, increasing mass and cost and reducing economic feasibility, whereas lower-reliability designs introduce operational and financial risks that challenge sustainability. These findings establish reliability as the central determinant of SBDC viability, providing an applied foundation for fault-tolerant, modular, and lifecycle-aware design strategies essential for transitioning orbital cloud infrastructure from concept to scalable reality.