Research on Wellbore Stability Prediction of Deep Coalbed Methane Under Multifactor Influences

To address the problem of wellbore instability in the development of deep coalbed methane reservoirs in Daniudi gas field, this study takes the coal seam cores from Member 1 of the Taiyuan Formation at a depth of approximately 2880 m as the research object. Through CT scanning, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), mineralogical analysis, laboratory mechanical tests, and drilling fluid interaction experiments, the study investigated the coal seam fabric characteristics, mechanical response, anisotropy, and the interaction between drilling fluids and the formation. Based on the double-weak-plane criterion, a wellbore collapse prediction model was established, and instability risk assessment under multi-factor coupling conditions was carried out. Experimental and computational results indicate that the deep coal seam exhibits significant heterogeneity in fabric structure, the clay minerals show low swelling potential, and the bright coal and semi-bright coal are prone to instability due to their dual pore structures. The average uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of the coal cores is 16.3 MPa, which is weaker than that of the roof, floor, and dirt band. The coal also exhibits anisotropy, with the lowest strength occurring when the loading direction forms an angle of 30–60° with the weak planes, corresponding to 67.5% of the intrinsic compressive strength. Immersion in drilling fluid causes the coal rock strength to decay in a pattern of “rapid decline in the initial stage—gradual decrease in the middle stage—stabilization in the later stage.” After 24 h, the strength is only 55–65% of that in the dry state. Due to its excellent plugging and inhibition performance, HX-Coalmud drilling fluid delays strength loss more effectively than the strongly inhibitive composite salt drilling fluid. The wellbore instability risk assessment indicates that as the drilling time is extended, the collapse pressure rises significantly. After 7 and 20 days of contact between the wellbore and drilling fluid, the equivalent collapse pressure density increases by 0.08–0.15 g/cm³ and 0.13–0.20 g/cm³, respectively. Therefore, homogeneous isotropic models tend to underestimate the risk of wellbore collapse. The findings can provide theoretical and technical support for the safe drilling of deep coalbed methane in Daniudi gas field.