Delivery Reliability Assessment for a Multistate Smart-Grid Network with Transmission-Loss Effect

Assessing the performance of the smart-grid system (SGS) under uncertainty is essential for ensuring a reliable energy supply from the perspective of the grid operator. In this study, a multistate smart-grid network (MSGN) is developed to evaluate the delivery capability of the SGS. An MSGN consists of multiple interconnected facilities, where nodes represent energy sources or converters and arcs denote feeders. The output of each facility in the MSGN is modeled as multistate, as maintenance activities and partial failures can result in multiple possible output levels. During power delivery, transmission losses may arise due to heat dissipation and feeder aging, potentially resulting in insufficient power supply at the demand side. From a smart-grid management perspective, delivery reliability, defined as the probability that the MSGN can successfully deliver sufficient power from energy sources to the destination under transmission loss, is adopted as a performance index for evaluating SGS capability. To compute delivery reliability, a minimal-path-based algorithm is developed. A practical SGS is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and to provide managerial insights into smart-grid performance and operational decision-making.