The Downside of Upkeep: Analysing Railway Infrastructure Maintenance Impact on Train Operations in Sweden

Efficient and seamless railway operations depend on the systematic and well-coordinated maintenance of both rolling stock and infrastructure. However, track maintenance, or ‘trackwork’, can cause substantial delays if not properly aligned with train schedules. This study comprehensively investigates how trackwork influences train operations in Sweden. It involves an in-depth analysis of an extensive dataset comprising over 225,000 recorded instances of planned trackwork and approximately 32.5 million train passages throughout the year 2017. Multiple logistic and negative binomial regression models showed that train running time delay occurrence is higher in the sections with scheduled trackwork. Trains passing through trackwork are 1.43 times more likely to experience delays compared to trains that do not pass through scheduled trackwork. The likelihood of an opportunity for the train delay recovery passing the section with scheduled trackwork is reduced by 11%. Additionally, the frequency of train delay increase is 16% higher, and delayed recovery is 4% lower in relation to trackwork. With the number of trackwork set to increase over the coming years, these results bring attention to train scheduling and the performance of trackwork.